Ryan Knuppel  |  Wed 26th Sep   | Podcast

Hey What’s up everybody. It’s your host Knup with the sports in Vegas odds podcast, back again with our second episode. First of all, I appreciate you guys tuning in each and every week here, as we talk sports, we talk Vegas odds, we talk whatever we want in the sports industry. Last week we took a quick look at Week three and I think I gave you all the odds, and that went over very well, so I’m going to do that once again this week. We’re going to look at week four, you know raw, uncut from the beginning. I have not even looked at the odds yet, it’s a Wednesday morning at this point here, so it’s time to start getting – getting busy, start looking at the odds, looking at the games and going from there.

0:38 – Last Week

But first, last week – last week a little personal story to get started here. Man, I had my heart crushed, my dreams crushed, in daily Fantasy Sports. I don’t know if any of you guys played DFS at all, but I play across the board you know, fantasy draft, vandal, draft kings. I play wherever I can, typically each week, and last week I had a – I had a tough one, I had a tough one, you know and that Daily fantasy you’re always hoping to hit big, you’re always hoping to strike it rich if you play tournaments, or GPP things. And last week was one of those weeks where I thought I had it, I really did. Going into Monday night football or Sunday night football which is when the tournament ended, I mean I was in great position, great position to win five figures in DFS on fantasy draft, and I got to the point – I got down to Fourteenth place, and we came down to the – you know the last few minutes in that Lions Patriots game, and all I needed, all I needed to move from fourteenth which paid three hundred and fifty dollars, to move up into like third or fourth, to make you know ten, twelve thousand dollars was one more Golden Tate catch, one more catch; ten – fifteen yards something like that, and I move up that much. That’s what’s crazy about daily fantasy sports if you guys haven’t played. If you have played you understand, if you haven’t played you’ve got to understand that the difference between third place or second place and fourteenth place is like a lot of money, every time. And so that drop off is huge, and typically the points are like, you know one or two points difference between those places, so I was… let’s just say I didn’t go to sleep very well Sunday night, last week, after that, did not happen. Still one money had a great week in DFS and in betting, but… hey, you know what, I’m going to move on this week, and I’m going to try to win it.

You win some, you lose some, and I’ve got some other DFS stories from previously in my – in my life, that someday I’ll explain to you guys, so make sure you tune in, I’ll give you some fun stories. I actually have a really good story for you that includes the Playboy Mansion, so any- any story that includes the Playboy Mansion is worth listening to, so I’ll try to bring that to life one of these weeks here, but for now we’re going to jump right into week four of the N.F.L. we’ll start looking at the odds, and I’ll give you my… just my quick thoughts. Again, there’s no research behind this, this is just me looking at the odds and just giving my thoughts here before the – the real studying begins.

3:20 – Thursday Night Football – Vikings at Rams

So, let’s jump in. Thursday night, Thursday night football, we finally have a great Thursday night football game, Vikings at Rams, the Rams are six and a half point favorites with a total of fifty on the board here, pretty high total. Wow the Vikings really, you know they really dropped a – an egg – whatever you say, they laid an egg last week against the Buffalo Bills, they were what… seventeen-point favorites last week, didn’t show up, the bills absolutely crushed them. I did not see that coming, I don’t think anybody in the world saw that coming, like seventy percent of Survivor tournaments players are out on the Vikings, so that hurt. Luckily, I faded them in most of mine, and I went with the Eagles, so I am still in, I’m down about ten percent survivor, so that’s good. But the Rams are 3 and O, coming in at home, looking really good, 2 and O at home, so they played most of their games at home, but Todd Gurley is looking like a beast, and then Jared Goff with his receiving corps is looking pretty good as well, and that defense is looking solid. Vikings on the other hand, you know, last week I think they might have showed that their – they have some weaknesses, they really do, they have some weaknesses, especially when Dalvin Cook is out, umm… Kirk Cousins really struggled to throw to anybody last week against that Buffalo D but… we know they have two dynamic receivers in Thielen and Diggs, and I expect them the bounce back this week. Vikings are getting six and a half on the road here the Rams, I’m going to actually take the Vikings plus six and a half, and my early look in this.

I think the Vikings bounce back and I think we start seeing a little regression on the Rams, maybe they come back to – come back to earth, but a touchdown favorite on Thursday night football, I’m going with the underdog here, I’m taking the Vikings.

4:56 – Bengals at Falcons

All right we move to Sunday – Sunday we actually have what? thirteen games on Sunday, so we’ll go through these quickly, we got the Bengals at the Falcons, the Falcons are five and a half point favorites with another – another large total of fifty-one here. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones still can’t seem to connect. The Falcons took a heartbreaking loss last week – last week at home against the Saints, oh wow, what a game, I love watching Drew Brees, and he’s pretty clutch you know, he came in the clutch in that one, and ended up beating the Falcons at the end of the game. But look for Ryan and then Jones to finally connect at some point, I think it’s been eight regular season games in a row now, without a touchdown between the two. Ridley, the second receiver for the Falcons had a huge game last week, he’s a young dynamic receiver from Alabama, so I would expect him to keep doing big things in that offense. On the Bengal side you know, they’re two in one, they look pretty good as well, another passing offense there with A.J. Green running his routes and doing his thing, so two high profile receivers and this one with A.J. Green, Julio Jones, I’m leaning towards the Falcons minus the five and a half on this one. I think that line’s about right though so I’m kind of scared of that, scared of that one but we’ll see what happens. Should be a fun game to watch, so if you get on C.B.S. in your area hopefully get to watch that game and go from there.

6:18 – Bucs at Bears

Alright next game is the Bucs at the Bears, Bucs at the Bears, Bears are three point favorites, forty six and a half total, hey the Bucs and Bears two surprising teams here, I mean the Bucs have been a surprising team to their fans this year, sitting at two in one with their heartbreaking Monday Night Football loss to the Steelers, which they were in the game again, so they’ve looked actually really good this year in general.

Their defense not so much, but their offense is clicking really good. Ryan Fitzpatrick is surprising everybody, I think he’s going to stay at quarterback even when Jameis Winston comes back, I don’t see any reason that they would switch that up, the way Fitzpatrick’s playing, I mean he’s thrown for over twelve hundred yards, eleven touchdowns in three weeks, unbelievable there for a guy that’s you know… been around the block and typically didn’t have a lot of success. So, him with Mike Evans and a couple of those you know, fast receivers that he has there, seems to be clicking with all of them. So DeSean Jackson is having a great year, I like what the Bucs are doing, Bears on the other hand are also playing really good football, that defense is what drives them. They snuck one out on the road last week so they’re sitting at two and one, and their minus three in this game, I actually like the Bears quite a bit in this game, I think the Bears play well I think their defense really can shut down Fitzpatrick, they’re going to have to play the deep ball pretty well. Although when I really start to think about it, the Bears struggled with that Packers deep ball, so maybe the Bucs will have some success there again, so scaring myself as I talk through it, but minus three is probably about right we’ll see I may do some more research on that one and see – see what I like.

7:54 – Lions at Cowboys

Alright we got Lions at Cowboys, the Lions at the Cowboys – Cowboys are three-point favorites, forty-three and a half total so, pretty low and we know why this is low, and that’s because the Cowboys suck. To be quite honest the Cowboys are struggling, their offense looks non-existent, every- each and every week it does, they try to pound and run the ball, they have no deep threat whatsoever, to speak of.

They’re really struggling to score the ball, their defense is solid, they do have a good defense, so that keeps them in games, but just scoring the football has been tough for them. Lions on the other hand Wow! what a game, what a game beating the Patriots, beating the Patriots last week on Sunday Night Football, and just absolutely destroying them. That defense for the Lions showed up – so I can’t get football, I do not understand what’s going on this year, I mean, that first week the Lions are at home and they get destroyed by the Jets, and everybody’s like, “oh the Lions are the worst team, they’re terrible, their defense is brutal” So what happens two weeks later, Lions at home again against you know, arguably the best offense of all time, you know with Tom Brady running the show, and you think oh my gosh this is going to be a nightmare you know, they’re going to carve up that Lions defense and no, what happens, the Lions defense shows up, Brady can’t even get a yard, I mean he has like a hundred yards in the game, which is unheard of, and the Lions you know clearly beat the Patriots twenty three to ten and it’s just crazy, I don’t – I don’t understand it. You know it’s each and every week there’s stuff that happens that I just shake my head like wow, N.F.L. It must have a lot of parity, a lot of evenness going on in the league this year, because you know one week the team shows up, the next week they don’t. Must be a matchup thing, a lot of things to look at when you’re looking at these N.F.L. games. So, in this one I do…oh gosh, Dallas is three-point favorites, oh give me Dallas, give me Dallas minus three but I think that line’s right on, so I think that’s going to be a tough one- a tough one there, but I think the Dallas Cowboys might squeak one out here at home in this game.

9:57 – Bills at Packers

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers, the Bills at Packers, Packers are nine and a half point favorites with a total of forty-five, so that line came a little bit down after the Bills surprise showing last week at the Vikings. You know they were seventeen-point favorite at the Vikings, now they’re nine and a half point favorites at the Packers, they destroyed the Vikings last week, I mean they destroyed them, they look better in every facet of the game, but can they do that in a very very hostile Lambeau Field on back to back weeks. Oh man, I don’t think so, you know the Packers Aaron Rodgers is really good at home, has a lot of receiving threats out there, and Davante Adams, Geronimo Allison and Randall Cobb. Their running games kind of weak, Jamal Williams, Ty Montgomery some of those guys are… Aaron Jones I guess looks kind of dynamic for the Packers, but he doesn’t get a lot of touches. I think the Packers might roll up the Bills this week, I think Packers win by double digits is my early thoughts, I’m taking the Packers, minus the – hopefully the nine in this game, in Lambeau.

10:58 – Eagles at Titans

Alright another one o’clock game, one o’clock Eastern is Eagles at Titans, a couple two in one team here. The Eagles are four-point favorites on the road at the Titans total of forty-one, Eagles are another one of those teams that really haven’t played all that well yet, but they are sitting at two and one, they just quite haven’t, you know, haven’t quite clicked a hundred percent yet. Carson Wentz was back last week, but they really struggled to beat the Colts at home, and so you know Wentz probably will have some growing pains here as he goes through the season, but you know, we all know he’s a little better than Nick Foles and so that’s a good move for them. I like the Eagles defense; their defense is solid. On the Titans side, their offense is really banged up, but man they won at Jacksonville last week, another one of those that made me scratch my head and actually made me lose it, one of my survivors in one of my leagues, and I had Jacksonville as easy winners in that game against the Titans and that just didn’t happen. Jacksonville struggled to move the ball like crazy. So, Marcus Mariota, you know he played he looked okay, but that – that offense, that offense of line everything about them is banged up, so their defense is keeping them in games and that’s what happened last week you know, defense and kicker and all of a sudden, they win the game, I think there was no touchdowns in that game last week, so. I like the Eagles quite a bit here to win on the road minus four, I don’t think the Titans are good at all, so I’m going to take the Eagles minus four in this game.

12:18 – Texans at Colts

Alright Texans at Colts, Texans at Colts kind of a rivalry game every year, but this year we got both these teams that are under five hundred. Texans O and 3 coming into the Colts at 1 and 2, Colts are just one-point favorites total forty-seven, so lines makers and then the Vegas odds makers have these… basically a pick on Colts by 1. Oh, you know it’s a tough game, the Texans are surprising me, I thought Deshaun Watson was going to have a big year, and he really hasn’t, you know he’s the only thrown for five touchdowns, through three weeks. DeAndre Hopkins only has one, I thought he was going to have a big big big year, but that didn’t seem to be happen. So, each and every week I think they’re going to turn it around, and they just haven’t seemed to do it, so maybe this is the way they do it at the Colts who… I don’t know, aren’t the best defense in the world, but they’ve been surprising many. I mean they’ve played in every game and they’ve competed, and Andrew luck is there, I mean they could easily be 2 and 1 now they’re just 1 and 2. Gosh I kind of like the Colts to win this game, I mean they’re playing well on the road, they should play well at home, unless Deshaun Watson decides he wants to be that dynamic quarterback that we know he is, I think the Colts win this game, so you might as well take the minus one and bet the Colts in that game.

13:31 – Dolphins at Patriots

Alright take a breath here, and we got Dolphins at Patriots, the Miami Dolphins at Patriots. Patriots are six and a half point favorites forty-seven and a half total in Vegas. Okay Miami, Miami one of the surprising 3 and 0 teams this year, you know they have no real offense to speak of, they’ve been winning with defense and strategy, and just squeaking out those wins, and so… how long can that last, I think it ends this week, I think it ends this week at the Patriots. I don’t know what to think of the Patriots though, I mean the Patriots, I just keep wanting that narrative of you know what, they’re going to bounce back, they don’t lose two in a row, they don’t – they don’t do that they’re the Patriots, it’s Tom Brady his trends point towards, always winning, and always covering, and always coming back, but I mean we maybe get into the point in his career where that narrative is over. I don’t know, I mean are we there yet? are we at that point where Tom Brady is… dear I say washed up? I mean the Patriots at 1 and 2 is a very odd spot for them to be at.

That last week at the Lions lost was it was an eye opener for me, and so we’ll see what happens, but the Patriots, I’m still buying on the Patriots, I still think they are – I mean they haven’t changed a lot from last year, so I think – I think Brady figures it out this week, I think you know Gordon maybe he had some dynamic receiving to that core there, so we’ll see what happens, but I’ll Brady to bounce back against Gronkowski or with Gronkowski,having a big week as well. Patriots win this by over a touchdown, I think the Dolphins 3 and 0, perfect season comes to an end this week at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough.

15:09 – Jets at Jaguars

Alright the last one o’clock game, the early afternoon in week four, we get the Jets at Jaguars, jets are 1 and 2, Jaguars 2 and 1. Jacksonville comes in seven and a half point favorites with a thirty-eight and a half total, that’s a low total but we know why, Jags can’t score, Jets struggle to score. I think the Jaguars Defense will be all over Darnold, that that young quarterback for the Jets.

Jaguars just… I don’t know, they surprised me last week you know, losing that game at home. Blake Bortles have a solid season, but other than that you know losing for net really hurts, so if he gets back this week which is a possibility, I think that will help the Jaguars quite a bit, they miss him running the ball in Jacksonville. Seven and a half is quite a bit to give this Jets team who likes to keep games close, and they really compete, they battle. I’m leaning towards the Jets plus seven and a half, I mean seven and a half in a thirty-eight over under, that’s quite a few points, so I’m leaning towards – leaning towards the Jets here, plus seven and a half in this game.

16:10 – Browns at Raiders

Alright we moved to the afternoon games, looks like we got a set of four afternoon games to talk about, we got the Browns at the Raiders, the Raiders are two and a half point favorites with a total of forty-five, this is my Yuck game of the week, the yuck game of the week is the Browns at the Raiders. Although I mean, it’s not going to be long and I’m going to have to stop calling Browns games yuck because they’re looking pretty good, and now Baker Mayfield at quarterback, hey they got their first win last week, and I think they are the real deal, that defense is good Baker Mayfield just look at Electric at quarterback, and I was – I was really impressed with the way he looked, his arm looked like a… ball of like a cannon coming out of his arm. So, I think this Browns team is for real, I think the Raiders suck, I don’t think they’re good at all, they’re 0 and 3. Derek Carr is not good, his… obviously Cooper who used to be a dynamic receiver can’t do much.

Jordy Nelson had a decent week last week, man I like Cleveland on the road here, plus the two and a half, I don’t know what you think about that, but Cleveland, can they win a road game dare they – dare I say that, maybe they got over the hump with their win now, and they can keep it going. I just think the Raiders are the worst team in football and so I’m taking the Browns, hopefully I can get three, Browns plus three would be awesome in this game, I’ll like the Browns to cover through two and a half three points in this game at the Raiders.

17:28 – Seahawks at Cardinals

All right Seahawks at Cardinal, Seahawks at Cardinals, the Seahawks are three-point favorites on the road at the Cardinals with a total of thirty-nine. That Seahawks team is kind of… you know they’re kind of down the down side of things, that defense isn’t quite as good as they have been, but they did look good against the Cowboys last week, but that’s not saying much I guess with that putrid offense that the Cowboys have, and we all know the Seahawks are way better at home, they’re already 0 and 2 away from Seattle this year, now they go on the road against a Cardinals team who 0 and 3 on the year has not looked good but they did look a slight bit better last week as they hosted the Bears, almost pulled that one out. Now they’ve now announced that Rosen will take over at quarterback, and so now they have another – you know, they have a rookie leading the way there. I kind of like the Cardinals in this one, I think Johnson has a big – David Johnson is a big day on the ground against the Seahawks. Cardinals getting three at home, I always like home underdogs, I’m going to take the cardinals to get their first win actually, and win outright against Seattle. I’ll take the Cardinals plus three in this one.

18:29 – Saints at Giants

Alright, another four twenty-five Eastern time game, Saints at Giants it’s out to be a fun one, the total is at fifty, the Vegas odds on this one has the Saints as three and a half point favorites on the road at the Giants. Saints 2 and 1, Giants 1 and 2, we all know the Saints, Saints had another miracle win last week as Drew Brees just you know he’s just amazing, he’s… if Brady is not the GOAT that’s currently playing Brees is right behind him, he’s already thrown for a thousand yards, eight touchdowns, he hooks up with Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, I mean his whole core that he has there, he just seems to find, and I love Drew Brees, I like everything about him, I think he’s a true professional, and I always like watching him play. And so, he goes to the Giants with Eli Manning at the helm, you know they’ve looked pretty un-inspirational, they looked better last week – looked better last week against Houston, but umm… can this offense score enough points to hang with the Saints? I don’t think they can, I think the Saints you know, are going to run up a lot of points on them, and I don’t think the Giants can compete with that. Barkley is dynamic but Eli just doesn’t seem to have any more, and we all know that offensive line in New York is the real problem, that offensive line is brutal. I like the Saints minus three, minus three and a half in this game, I think they go on the road and win pretty easily, at least by a touchdown, be their first real good win of the season. I’ll take the Saints minus three and a half.

19:49 – 49ers at Chargers

Alright the last afternoon game is the 49ers at the Chargers. 49ers at Chargers, Chargers a ten and a half point favorites, look like the biggest favorites on the board this week with a total of forty-six and a half in Vegas. We know why this is a big spread, Jimmy Garoppolo, good old Jimmy Garoppolo went out for the season for the 49ers last week. That’s a big hit for the 49ers, it really is, this is a team that really has a lot of no name players, not getting a lot of attention, they’re 1 and 2, 0 and 2 on the road. Now they’re without their starting quarterback for the entire season, that’s quite a blow to them, oh man, they just don’t have the pieces to hang. The Chargers on the other hand, have a pretty good defense, I like their offense as well with Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen and another set of receivers there, and then Gordon running the ball, so I still like the Chargers quite a bit, but this ten and a half spread concerns me, that’s a lot – that’s a lot for any N.F.L. game as we’ve seen throughout the season, typically double digit favorites don’t really cover well in these games, I don’t look at the trends you know, later in the weeks like this week four, but I know in the early weeks they don’t seem to cover as much, so I would lean 49ers but I don’t think I would bet that by any means, especially with Garoppolo out. They have a lot of learning, a lot of things that they’ve got to adjust with him out, coming into this week four game against the Chargers. So, probably a game I stay away from, not really exciting to me at all, so I may stay away and just watch the score.

21:20 – Sunday Night Football – Ravens at Steelers

Alright Sunday night football we got a battle, we got a punch you in the mouth type football game with the Ravens in the Steelers. Steelers are three-point favorites, total of fifty-one, high total for this game, that’s my immediate thought with two teams that are defensive in nature, and typically when they play man it’s like a bang, a smash your head, we’re going to run, we’re going to pound the ball, we’re going to tackle hard, they hate each other. Raven Steelers, I always think low scoring when I think Raven Steelers, but the way the Steelers team has been playing, I mean they can’t seem to stop anybody, so who knows maybe they can stop this Joe Flacco led Ravens who’s 2 and 1 on the season, not getting a lot of height but there are two in one of the seasons. The Steelers are 1,1 and 1 at this point, with a win at the Bucs last week, got their first win of the season on Monday night football. I’ll like the Steelers quite a bit to win this by three, and I like the under that first glance, I really do like the under fifty-one. I think this will be more like a twenty-one seventeen type game so. I like the under quite a bit in this game. Roethlisberger has all his weapons, Juju Smith-Schuster kind of looking like the new number one there. Haven’t heard of Bells coming back, but I would doubt it, so I’m taken Steelers and I’m taking the under in this game, I like that quite a bit on Sunday Night Football.

22:34 – Monday Night Football – Chiefs at Broncos

All right we move to the last game of the week, Monday night football – Monday night football, October first, we turn the calendar to October first. Monday night football, we have Kansas City, Kansas City at the Broncos. Kansas City five-point favorites at the Broncos, the Chiefs seem to be everybody’s darling this year, they seem to be the team everybody’s talking about, everybody’s bandwagoning on. Patrick Mahomes is looking like you know, one of the best quarterbacks ever, nine hundred yards, thirteen touchdowns through three weeks breaking N.F.L. records and all of this. He does have that – you know dynamic core with Hill and Kelce and Hunt and just, you name it and he has it on that team. Sammy Watkins who used to be a number one in Buffalo is like their third or fourth receiver in Kansas City, so he does have the weapons and he’s putting up the points. This total is at fifty-six and a half, fifty-six and a half on the Vegas odds, and that’s crazy, crazy high especially coming into Denver, who you know at Mile High Stadium the Broncos typically play pretty good defense. I like the Broncos defense to – to shut down this sheave’s offense for the most part. Broncos offense on the other hand, is not all that dynamic Emmanuel Sanders is emerging as the number one over there, ahead of Demaryius Thomas in Denver and the running game is really not much to speak of, but you’re giving me Denver plus five points, I’m going to take that, I’m a take the five points at home, give me Denver.

The public is going to be pounding the Chiefs because they’re everybody’s darling right now, I’m taken the opposite, I’ll go Broncos plus five. And I’d lean under, again I’d lean under here in this game, but off to do a little more research on that to see what I think so..

24:09 – Conclusion

There you have it, there you have it. Week four is in the books, that’s my early look again, please don’t take these as locks or any of this as you know official betting advice, because I do a lot more research guys, I do I go out I look at trends, I look at line movements, I look at who’s the public’s on. I do a lot of sharp type stuff throughout the week, but this is the first time I’ve looked at the odds, and I just want to give you guys my raw uncut thoughts on this week’s slate, who I liked just at a glance, and you know if you want to see more – more – more stats, more things, more odds, more articles, we’re always doing news and stuff out on Vegas odds dot com, so head out there check out some stuff out there. And I appreciate you guys tuning in, I really do. We’re going to keep this going, and again I’ve got plenty on the schedules coming up for these, you know these scores in Vegas odds podcast. So, appreciate it, have a great week and good luck in everything you do. alright take care, again I’m Knup with Vegas odds dot com. Have a great one.

Ryan Knuppel