Listen to Podcast 03 – October Sports & Week 4 NFL Odds Rundown

00:00 – Introduction

Ryan Knuppel:  What is up, guys? Welcome to the Sports and Vegas odds podcast. I’m your host Ryan Knuppel better known in the industry as Knup K-N-U-P. I want to thank you for tuning in today. Each and every week we talk sports. We talk Vegas odds; we talk sports betting, lots and lots going on right now. It’s one of the best times in sports. If you ask me personally it’s the best time. I love the October timeframe for sports. Especially in the United States, all sorts of stuff going on.

00:31 – NL Wild Card Game – Baseball Playoffs

I mean I got roped in last night to watching this baseball game. How many of you stayed up and watched the NL wild-card game late this week? Man what a game it was between the Rockies and the Cubs. 13 innings, Rockies ended up beating them on a no-name backup catcher gets the walk-off not a, necessarily walk off with the game-winning RBI to knock the Cubs out. Which is crazy because the Cubs have been one of the best teams in the National League all year long? Now they find themselves not even in the playoff. So that’s baseball for you, it’s crazy yet but I love this time of year. Like I said we got baseball playoffs just starting up so we have a full month of it’s going to be some of the best baseball games we’re going to see. Another wildcard game tonight then we lead into the playoffs heading into this week. Some great teams battling it out, we’ll see what happens there.

01:21 – Hockey Opening Day

Then we got you to know obviously we got football going on. We’re going to talk a little more about NFL later today but we have NFL that is sitting on week five. We have college football going on in week six lots of great games there as well. We’re getting into some of the big conference and rivalry games so that’s always fun. But then you know on top of all of that as we hit October here guess what tonight is? Hockey opening day, so if any of you puck stirs out there any of you guys that like hockey, it starts tonight. So we have a lot of a lot of hockey going on over the next several months, so that’s going on.

01:56 – NBA Season

And then two weeks from now so only two weeks away here mid-October starts the NBA. So National Basketball Association some of the biggest names in sports we’ll be taking the court, LeBron heading to LA that’d be interesting to see how that goes for him. Teaming up with Lonzo Ball over there. So I’m really looking forward to NBA. It’s one of my personal favorite sports to just follow, bet on watch, and just follow the odds in general.

02:21 – Check Us Out

So, man, I hope you’re enjoying this October time it is it is the sports month. Lots of good stuff going on and hopefully you’re reading our site vegasodds.com. You’re checking out this podcast each and every week. We even may go more frequently as we get going here and more of you tuned in. But I hope you get this on your podcast player, get it on your Apple iTunes, your stitcher. You’re Sound Cloud; whatever you do get this thing favorite so you don’t miss an episode. We also are going to put this thing out on YouTube, so if you want to subscribe to our YouTube channel you can always follow it and listen to it over there as well. But join us each and every week and to the last several weeks I’ve talked to NFL and I’m going to keep doing that today.

03:03 – The Odds

I like to give an early look so you know I haven’t even glanced at the odds for week five yet. And so that’s one of the things I like to do is kind of give you guys my raw uncut thoughts about the NFL slate heading into this week right as I’m looking at the odds. And so bear with me, these may not be my final picks as I say each and every week but they’re my thoughts right off the top of my head. And hopefully, it’ll help you as we go through the week. Just give you a little insight and analysis into the NFL slate. So let’s get started after all of that, love this time of year for sports but let’s get started on NFL.

03:37 – Colts vs. Patriots

Thursday Night Football. Thursday night we got a great game 8:20 p.m. Eastern Time. 
We got the Colts at Patriots, so Colts at Patriots this Thursday. Hopefully, you’ll hear this prior to that game. Patriots are double-digit favorites in this game, ten and a half point favorites with a total of 51 and a half. My initial thought is that’s too many points. Ten and a half is quite a bit for this Patriots team that sits at two and two. Not necessarily looking that good this year. They’ve had their bumps and their bruises; they did destroy the Dolphins last week so they’re a little bit back on track. But Andrew Luck typically likes to play the Patriots pretty closely, so we’ll see how that goes. This Colts team though the defense is not that good? You know their long passing game hasn’t been that good and Luck, in general, has just really been checking down and hitting those short passes. Which is okay, I mean that’s not a bad thing to do especially when you got a guy like TY Hilton in the backfield that can catch passes and just you know a lot of yards after the catch. And so not necessarily a bad thing but ten and a half seems like a lot of points in this one. I always liked those double-digit underdogs, so my initial gut feeling is we’re going to take the Colts plus ten and a half 11 points in this game.

04:46 – Titans vs. Bills

 All right let’s move on to Sunday. Sunday we got another full slate, we do have some by weeks but we have a full slate going on. So we have Titans at Bill’s. Titans at Bill’s, Titans come in three and one at the Bills who are one in three. Titans are three and a half point favorites in this one with a total of 39 in Vegas. That’s a pretty low total but these are two teams that really struggle to score. Significantly struggle to score. I mean the Titans I think are over performing from what everybody thought they would do. Marcus Mariota’s played okay but he’s a little banged up. They’ve lost a couple other receivers, Delanie Walker and then a couple others not quite as impactful guys. But Corey Davis looked good last week and then Derrick Henry’s running the ball but really not being productive at all.

Titans are really winning games with their defense. They’re playing great defense and shouldn’t have a problem playing defense against this Bills team who struggles to score as well. Besides that one game that they just absolutely demolished the Vikings, they’ve looked horrible. They looked horrible in every other game. And Josh Allen came back to normal last week as the Bills got rocked by the Packers. We all knew that was going to happen. It was a great week in betting for me. If you did listen to some of my stuff you knew that was going to happen.
 
And so yeah we’ll see what happens this week. I think this spreads about right Tennessee three and a half point favorites on the road. I would lean towards taking the Titans just couldn’t trust the Bills at all but this are probably going to be a no play or a total. Or wait and see where the shark money’s at in this game.

06:13 – Dolphins vs. Bengals

Alright, dolphins at Bengals both three and one teams. Bengals are six and a half point favorites, almost a touchdown favorite at home in this one. Total of 49 and half dolphins showed that they are human. Took a loss last week at New England. Bengals, on the other hand, are still playing really well. They went into Atlanta, won that game last week. Looks pretty good in dramatic fashion at the last minute. You know beaten Atlanta at their home field that’s a pretty big win for them. They’ve really impressed me. Andy Dalton’s throne 11 touchdowns already through four weeks and you know they’re just really dispersing the ball well. And obviously, they have AJ Green catching the ball who’s a stud and then a whole bunch of other receivers with Boyd.
And some others there that are catching the ball. The effort did go out for the big tight end a big target in the red zone. He’s gone for the rest of the year and so that may play a small impact but they do have a couple other tight ends. I like the Bengals to roll again in this one. I just don’t think the Dolphins are that good. They showed that last week. And I think the Bengals will roll the Dolphins. A six and a half some pretty big spread so that may be about right. About a touchdown favorite but we’ll watch where this goes the rest of the week.

07:21 – Ravens vs. Browns

All right we got the Ravens and the Browns. The Ravens are three and one after coming off that win against the Steelers in primetime. And then the Browns are one and two. Browns are 1 & 2, 1 2 & 1 now. Baltimore’s 3 point favorites on the road at the Browns. The Browns defense showed some signs of weakness last week. I mean they played pretty well all year and then they didn’t look good last week at all. And that shootout that they had with the Raiders it ended up losing two to one of the worst teams in the NFL, the Raiders in that game. Ravens, on the other hand, are nothing to brag about you knows they’re nothing special.

Nobody seems to love their players in their personnel but they just get the job done. John Brown’s been a great addition to them. 338 yards three touchdowns and Joe Flacco just keeps plugging along. He’s like a journeyman quarterback but he just keeps plugging along. So that said I like the Browns, I like the Browns plus 3 in this game. I think getting three at home against this Ravens team we know it’s going to be a close game. They always play close games. Baker Mayfield is certainly an improvement for the Browns. 
They showed that Carlos Hyde runs the ball pretty well. If this defense can hold down this Ravens offence, I think the Browns might win this game outright. I’ll take the Browns the Browns plus three in this one.

08:37 – Packers vs. Lions

 All right we have Packers at Lions. Packers at Lions a big rivalry game out of the NFC. The Green Bay Packers are one point favorites on the road. A lot of Road favorites as I look at this today. Early in the week, the Packers are one point favorite total of 51, pretty high total. When these two get together usually its fireworks. The one thing that sticks out in this game you know the Lions playing at home. Lions are kind of that Jekyll and Hyde team. Like what’s going on? On the road they’ve looked bad, actually looked badly at home the first game. But then they looked really good against the Patriots. Gosh, I don’t know what to think of this Lions team. Something tells me they’re going to come out strong on this one. It seems like they play well against the good teams and not so well against the bad teams if you look at you know Buffalo. It was a buffalo whoever they lost no the Jets weak one and then a Dallas last week but they looked really good against the Patriots. And had another good outing in there. So I think the Lions are going to play to play well at home against the Packers. I think they’ll get after they’ll get after Aaron Rodgers. And I actually like the Lions to win this game. I think this line will move a little towards the Lions so I’ll take the Lions in this one depending on what shark money comes in and things like that. But I like the Lions.

09:49 – Jaguars vs. Chiefs

All right Jaguars Chiefs. Jaguars are three and one at the Chiefs 410. Probably one of the biggest games of the week. Casey is three-point favorites at home in this one total of 49. Then maybe one of the biggest totals will ever see in a Jaguars game. This is kind of the tale of how do I say this, this is a polar opposite getting together here in this game. As the Jaguars pride themselves on defense that’s what they’re after. And the Chiefs they are pure 100% offence. So these two going out at each other we’ll see what happens. 
Patrick Mahomes has been amazing. 14 touchdowns through four weeks I mean that’s unbelievable. He has all the weapons we talked about this each and every week but he has the weapons. And just continues to perform but on the Jaguar side, they should have you know four net is iffy. He’s still questionable, he got hurt again last week. So we’ll see if he plays, but regardless you know this Jaguars team is built on defense. And so they’re going to have some schemes in some ways to stop this Chiefs offence. So I do think Mahomes will have a rough time this week.

I think the Jaguars plus three is a juicy bet. I think coming into the season, I think Jaguars will probably be favored in this but the way the Chiefs have been playing that’s why they’re three-point favorites. So I’m going to take the three points and take the Jaguars in this game. And I also like probably under an under 49 Jaguars over 49 points seems like an awful lot for that defensive team. And anytime defense battles offence I like to lean on the defense in those cases. So we’ll see what happens the rest of the week and where this line moves, where the shark money is but I like the Jaguars at first look in this game.

11:26 – Broncos vs. Jets

All right we got Broncos at Jets. The Jets are one point favorites at home 42 and a half total. Seeing the Jets as favorite’s kind of surprises me here. But you know they’re 1 in 3 coming into this game at home. It’s basically a pick on their 1 point favorite. Vegas odds have the total at 42 and a half which is rather low. Neither of these teams just really showed me much, I mean Case Keenum has a couple wide receiver weapons and just can’t seem to get it to him. Sanders and Thomas you know both I think just have one touchdown and you know three for Keenum on the year. They’re going to have to figure that out if they if they want to succeed the rest of the year. Especially away from home where they’re a much different team. On the Jets side of the ball I mean they’re obviously led by rookie quarterback Darnold. And they don’t have a lot of weapons but they’ve seemed to piece it together and their defence plays pretty well at home. So I like the Jets winning this game.I think they win at home in this one over the Broncos.

12:22 – Falcons vs. Steelers

Alright, Falcons Steelers two big-name teams that have underperformed so far this year. Big-time underperformed if I must say so. Pittsburgh three-point favorites at home against the Falcons total is the biggest we’ll see in quite a while. One of the biggest we’ve seen of the year. I think 57, 57 that just shows big-time offences, no defence. We’re going to see some fireworks in Pittsburgh the Steelers taking on the Falcons. Falcons are 1 and 3 so I don’t know what’s going on here but they are definitely a better team than that. Their defence has taken significant injuries that have really hurt them. And then on the Steelers side of the ball, they just can’t put it together. Their defence is atrocious, really bad. And Roethlisberger has been pretty good still. There are a lot of weapons on offence. There’s talk that Bell will be back here fairly soon. That should help them significantly but it’s all a defence if you can’t play defence you can’t win games. I mean you’re going to be in shootouts every game and I expect the same thing here.

Gosh, who knows? I’m probably taking underdog here, I’ll give me the Falcons plus three. Just because the Steelers simply can’t seem to put it together. They’re already owning two at home. Now they get one of the better teams that they faced in the Falcons who obviously have a chip on their shoulder and are going to go crazy throwing the ball. So man Matt Ryan could have a huge game in this one on the road. As Roethlisberger could as well but man we’re going to look we see a shootout here. I like Atlanta plus three in this one.

13:48 – Giants vs. Panthers

All right we moved to the last one o’clock game in the afternoon. We got Giants at Panthers. Giants come in as one in three records, the Panthers have a two in one record. Carolina is a touchdown favorite seven-point favorite to the total of 44 and a half. I spend a good deal of time watching this Giants team last week and they really concerned me. I mean they just cannot score. You know every week I think they got the weapons man, they got the guys.

They got Odell Beckham, they got Shaquan Barkley, and you know Eli Manning’s been fine. But no offensive line is brutal, Eli Manning has no time to pass. He has to check down each and every time. He’s not able to go deep to any of his threats deep which is really hurting them. So they’re going to have to fix that line and figure that out. But I’m done I’m done with the Giants for a while. I mean their defence is fine but they can’t score, they just can’t. And so Panthers seven-point favorites in this one. Probably one I’m going to lay off because I just don’t know what to do with this Giants team. Seven seems like an awful lot but who knows. Giants can’t score then we know Panthers are going to roll in this game. Christian McCaffrey keeps putting up major yards. Cam Newton’s having a good season, I like the Panthers to win this game for sure. A touchdown just seems like quite a bit but I’m probably I’m just lean and stay away for now.

15:08 – Raiders vs. Chargers

Okay, we’re back and we have the four o’clock game so we’re moving into the late afternoon. We have Raiders at Chargers. Raiders are one and three, Chargers two and two. The Vegas odds show the charges are five and a half point favorites with another big total here 53 and a half in this total. We’re seeing a theme this year, lots of big totals very little defence in the NFL. A kind of a tale of extremes. We got some really good defensive teams and some really bad defensive teams. But it seems like the trend is you know bad defence and we’re going to score, score, and score going on this year in the NFL.

So Chargers five and a half point favorites that don’t seem like enough in this game. I don’t think the Raiders are good at all, I really don’t. I think they squeaked away a win last week against the Browns. The Chargers didn’t look good last week though, to be honest with you.  They did not look good against the Niners. They squeaked out a win as well they’re two and two. But I like this team, I like this Chargers team. I think their defence is solid, their offence is overall pretty good. If Rivers and Keenan Allen can kind of start connecting they’re going to be good. But the running game is electric with Gordon, Hecklers having a great year. I like the Chargers a lot at first glance at this one. They’re going to win this game by more than a touchdown in this one at home.

16:23 – Vikings vs. Eagles

Alright, next game is another good one Vikings at Eagles. Vikings are one and two and one. Eagles are two and two. Two teams that have you really big expectations coming into this season. You know some of the top five 10 teams in the league with the Vikings and Eagles. Both have struggled just a little bit, kind of shows the parody of the league this year. Eagles are 3-point favorites at home total of 44 and a half. Both of those seem about right in this game. I could see this being a very close game. You know the Eagles defence is going to have to figure out how to stop that Vikings passing game. And vice versa the Eagles passing game looked a lot better last week. With Wentz you know getting some chemistry, with Jefferies back. And some of their key pieces back for them. 
He always hooks up with you know tight end Earths. But with some of those key pieces back to Philly offence looked better last week. And I liked them, gosh I like them to win this game. But I do like the Vikings as well. I think that 3 points are about right. I’d have to take a lot closer look at this and see where the public is on this game before I make a final decision on who I’m betting.

17:24 – Cardinals vs. 49ers

Then we get the Cardinals at 49ers. Cardinals at 49ers.  49ers are four-point favorites in this one. Shows you how bad Vegas think of the Cardinals team that owes for basically telling the world that they’re the worst team in the NFL. I mean sitting, coming into San Francisco as four-point underdogs, I mean San Francisco is brutal. They really are, they don’t have you know they lost Garoppolo for the season. They didn’t look too bad last week at the Chargers but they’re pieces to the puzzle just aren’t there. I mean Kittles having a big year, but Breeders running the ball and Breathard is their quarterback.
I mean just guys that you’ve never heard of. Their defence is kind of keeping them in games. Oh man, I like the Cardinals plus four in this one. I think the Cardinals turned it around, I do still like their core I just don’t know why they can’t put it together. I mean David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald I know you know rookie quarterback and Rosen now under center. But I think he’s better than the previous option they had there. And so man I think the Cardinals are going to turn it around at some point. Maybe this is the game.
I like I’m getting four on the road against a bad Niners team.

18:27 – Rams vs. Seahawks

Then we got the Rams at Seahawks. The Rams are seven-point favorites at the Seahawks. Holy cow this one sticks out to me right off the bat sticks out to me. So seven-point favorites at the Seahawks total of 51. Oh, give me the Seahawks plus a touchdown at home all day long. That Seattle stadium that you know there it’s a Century Link Field definitely the toughest home field in the NFL by far. Where they call it the 12th man you know with the crowd getting into that. Wow, this Rams team is electric. They are good but I think they are getting a little more credit than they deserve here. Give me the Rams again I’m sorry, give me the Seahawks plus the seven at home in this one. And I’ll take the Rams to come back down to earth a little bit. They’ll probably win the game but seven points is a lot at the Seattle team who definitely could win this game. And if you’ve followed these two in the past they always have close games no matter what. I think Pete Carroll and company will find a way to minimize what the Rams do on offence. And maybe stop this juggernaut just a little in this game. So I like to see Hawks and I like to under a little bit in this game as well.

19:34 – Cowboys vs. Texans

All right we moved to Sunday Night Football. Sunday Night Football is a battle of Texas. We have the Dallas Cowboys at the Houston Texans. Houston’s three and a half point favorites at home. Forty-five and a half point favorite five and a half over/under in Vegas. The Vegas odds have the Texans favored here. Cowboys are 2 & 2 oh and two away from home. Texans are 1 & 3, the Texans have kind of been coming on as late. I like to Shawn Watson and Deandre Hopkins. You know those two always connect. Fuller did get injured last week in Hopkins. I’m sorry Watson is a different quarterback if he doesn’t play. So watch the injury wire there and see if he plays. If he doesn’t, Watson struggles a little bit more. He’s Ezekiel Elliot for the Cowboys had a monster week last week as we thought he would. Just carving up the Lions and so I think he can do that again against this Texans team.

So I think I’ll have another big week but other than that how are the Cowboys going to score? You know they don’t have a really good passing game. Dak Prescott you know had a really good rookie season and has really struggled since then. I kind of like the under in this game. If I look at the 45 and a half especially a fuller ends up not playing. I like the under a lot in this game under 45 and a half.

20:50 – Redskins vs. Saints

Okay, a final game we moved to Monday Night Football Redskins at Saints. This is another big total 52 and a half and the Vegas odds have New Orleans Saints 6 and a half. Almost touchdown favorites against the Washington Redskins. Oh man, I’m going to take. Oh gosh, I don’t know what I’m going to take here. This this is a tough one for me. My gut says Redskins are going to cover that. But then on the other side the Saints you know when they get that offence clicking and rolling they could score a lot of points.
They didn’t have it going last week so I think they bounce back and really score a lot this week. I don’t know if the Redskins can keep up with that as I really think about it. I’m leaning towards New Orleans minus the six, six and a half in this game. Brees, Kamara, and Thomas those guys are going to go nuts as they always do. Redskins just won’t have enough away from Washington to keep up in this game.

21:39 – Outro

Ok, there you have it. That’s my look at the NFL week 5 here from vegasodds.com. We appreciate you listening tuning in. Hopefully, it helps you a little bit with your bets as you as you get going. And hopefully, have settled into the season a little bit. You know each and every week we just try to help a little bit. Even if it’s 1, 2 games, a couple stats, a couple tidbits that can help you win a better two and you’ll go from there. So I appreciate it again this is Ryan Knuppel with vegasodds.com. Thank you for listening to the sports in Vegas odds podcast. We appreciate it as always each and every week. Have a great week of betting and a great week watching all of these fabulous sports that is going on in October. Take care.
 
See the full list of predictions and vegas odds for NFL week 4 games.