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Free NCAAB Pick: Texas Tech vs Arkansas Prediction, Odds (March 21)

  • Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS last 7 NCAA tournament games
  • Red Raiders are 7-16 ATS last 23 overall
  • Razorbacks are 9-2 ATS last 11 overall
  • Under is 6-2 in Razorbacks last 8 overall

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are dangerous this time of year. Prior to last year’s tournament getting canceled because of the pandemic, TTU has made the NCAA finals and an elite 8 the last two trips to March Madness. The Arkansas Razorbacks are very much an unknown, an explosive team but also in their first trip to the tournament under 2nd year coach Eric Musselman. This one seems like a toss-up.

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Schedule

  • Where: Hinkle Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
  • When: Sunday, March 21st, 6:10pm ET
  • How to Watch: TNT

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Vegas Odds

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Preview

Texas Tech Defense the X-Factor?

Arkansas likes to get out and run with the 12th fastest pace in the entire country. That goes against everything Texas Tech stands for though, as the Red Raiders boast the nation’s #18 squad in adjusted defensive efficiency. TTU allowed the 27th fewest points/game during the regular season, and were a top 50 squad in opponent’s field goal percentage.

The Red Raiders’ defense was on full display in their tournament opener, holding Utah State to 53 points. TTU showed a vulnerability on the post though, as Utah State 7-footer Neemias Queta had 11 points, 13 rebounds, and 6 assists. 5 of the Razorbacks’ top 6 scorers are guards though, which definitely favors Texas Tech.

Mar 19, 2021; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (1) shoots against Utah State Aggies guard Brock Miller (22) during the second half in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 19, 2021; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Terrence Shannon Jr. (1) shoots against Utah State Aggies guard Brock Miller (22) during the second half in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Prather-USA TODAY Sports

If the tempo does move to a quicker game like Arkansas prefers, Texas Tech should be ready to go to battle. The top four scorers for the Red Raiders are guards, led by Mac McClung who had 16 points in the tourney opening win over Utah State. Terrence Shannon, Kyler Edwards, and Kevin McCullar are all good for about a dozen points per game.

Arkansas Ready to Run

One thing to note about Arkansas is that they were great this year, but their 23-6 record was largely built on going 16-1 at home on the year. That means a 7-5 record at home or on neutral courts, not especially horrible but not good either.

The Razorbacks did beat Missouri in the SEC tournament before falling 71-78 to LSU, both NCAA tournament teams. Arkansas was up only three points at the half against Colgate in their tournament opener, but a 49-35 stretch in the second paved the way for Musselman’s squad.

Mar 19, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Justin Smith (0) blocks a shot by Colgate Raiders forward Keegan Records (14) during the second half in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 19, 2021; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks forward Justin Smith (0) blocks a shot by Colgate Raiders forward Keegan Records (14) during the second half in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Justin Smith powered the Razorbacks in their win over Colgate with 29 points and 13 rebounds. It was the third time in the last five games that Smith went for 20+, so he’ll be a force to be reckoned with. Speaking of forces, Moses Moody has 28 points in three of the last five, and led Arkansas with 17.5 ppg on the season.

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Preview

Who will win the Texas Tech vs Arkansas game:

This meeting is looking like a close one, and it’s the ultimate offense vs. defense matchup. In a neutral site game where shooting is more likely to fail, side with the defense. That, and Chris Beard just knows how to win this time of year.

Texas Tech 71 – Arkansas 68

Texas Tech vs Arkansas Free Pick:

  • Texas Tech
Carl has been betting on sports for the past 24 years. He is a well-rounded sports aficionado having won (and lost) on the NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, NCAA, PGA, UFC, and NASCAR. Carl has been the house for a brief period, and nearly lost a house in his younger gambling days but has learned a lot along the way with tips and info that he passes on to the reader.

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