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NCAAF Week 16: #1 Alabama at #7 Florida Vegas Odds, Pick, Preview (Dec 19)

The 8-2 Florida Gators’ potential for a trip to the college football playoff is on life support after losing 37-34 to LSU last week.

UF could still turn a few committee heads if they are able to get a dominating win over the Alabama Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game. Of course, that’s easier said than done vs. a 10-0 Crimson Tide squad that is simply rolling through opponents.

Alabama vs Florida Schedule

  • Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
  • When: Saturday, December 19, 8:00pm (ET)
  • How to Watch: CBS

Alabama vs Florida Vegas Odds

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators Preview

Tide Set to Keep Rolling 

It seems like the only hope for Florida in Saturday’s tilt is if Alabama gets complacent knowing they’ll likely make the playoff even with a loss. The only problem with that wish is that this is a Crimson Tide that has shown virtually no weakness this entire season, and have been winning games by double digits even on what could be considered ‘bad’ days.

Alabama comes into Saturday’s meeting off of a 52-3 shellacking of Arkansas last week as -28 point favorites. Oddsmakers keep raising the number, and it’s still not enough as the Crimson Tide have covered the spread in the last six games all as at least -21 point favorites. A great offense has something to due with Alabama’s success ATS, but this defense has also allowed a total of 36 points the last five games.

Ncaa Football: Alabama At Tennessee
Credit: Caitie McMekin-USA TODAY NETWORK

About that offense though. Mac Jones is completing a ridiculous 76.4% of his passes this season, and has tossed 27 TD to just 3 INT. Jones wasn’t really needed last week as Alabama took a 38-3 halftime lead against Arkansas, but he had 9 TD to 0 INT the two games prior in wins over LSU and Auburn.

Florida Ready to Hang in a Shootout?

Last week was another good showing for the Florida offense, putting up at least 31 points for their 10th straight game this season. The Gators were sacked 4 times though, lost a fumble, and Kyle Trask threw an uncharacteristic 2 INT. Trask had 16 TD to 0 INT the last four games coming into the meeting with LSU.

It’s possible that Florida got caught in the ‘look-ahead’ game last week vs. LSU, knowing their ticket to the SEC Championship was already punched. The Gators were -24 point favorites against the defending national champions, but their shot at the postseason is all but gone even with a win over Alabama as +17 point underdogs on Saturday night.

Ncaa Football: Louisiana State At Florida
Credit: Brad McClenny-USA TODAY NETWORK

Florida does have the offense to hang in this one, as despite his INTs Trask still threw for 474 yards last week vs. LSU. Alabama has played great defense lately, but this is still a team that had to withstand Ole Miss 63-48 earlier in the season. Ole Miss QB Matt Corral threw for 365 in that game and the Rebels had two RBs go over 120 yards on the ground. That was way back on October 10th though.

Alabama vs Florida Pick 

Despite their loss last week, Florida is still ranked #7 in the country so getting +17 points may seem like a lot. For Alabama backers, that number seems light as this team is on a mission right now.

Alabama 47 — Florida 24

Other NCAAF Week 16 Picks:

Friday, Dec 18th

Saturday, Dec 19th

Cancelled Games

  • UL-Monroe at Troy - Cancelled
  • Purdue at Indiana - Cancelled
  • Georgia Tech at Miami (Fla.)
  • Vanderbilt at Georgia - Cancelled
  • Arizona at California - Cancelled
  • Louisiana at C. Carolina - Cancelled
  • Michigan at Iowa - Cancelled
  • Michigan St. at Maryland - Cancelled
  • Oregon at Colorado - Cancelled
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