The NFL Draft is fast approaching, and there are still many questions in regards to how everything is going to go down. Who will go first overall? How many QBs will go in the first round? Will there be more players on offense or defense taken on day 1? Here are some of the latest NFL Draft odds, as well as some predictions.
It is almost getting to the point where Kyler Murray is a formality to go number one. Kliff Kingsbury’s glowing opinion of Murray has been well-documented, and the rumors continue to persist, making the Oklahoma QB the heavy favorite to go first at -500.
But this is the draft, and there’s always a chance that Arizona may be bluffing. There are still several pass-pushers that remain possibilities should the Cardinals decide to go in that direction instead. They include Nick Bosa (+250), Quinnen Williams (+1800), and Josh Allen (+2000). However, the smart money is still on Murray.
If Kyler Murray is the pick, the focus turns to incumbent quarterback Josh Rosen. Rosen, last year’s 10th overall pick, has reportedly been on the block, and a Murray selection would nearly guarantee a trade. Right now, the Giants are favored at +154 to be Rosen’s next team, followed by the Chargers (+366) and his current team the Cardinals (+432).
Number of QBs in first round
Despite the scouts and experts saying this QB class is weaker than in year’s past, it doesn’t change the fact that every year, multiple QBs get taken in the first round. The real question is, how many?
Right now, over 3.5 quarterbacks selected is the betting favorite at -200, with the under at +150. Murray, Dwayne Haskins, and Drew Lock are all projected to go in the first round, with all three may be taken within the first 10 picks.
Duke QB Daniel Jones seems to be the biggest wild card for people playing this bet. His scouting reports are all over the place, from top-10 potential to second round disappointment. Although no official odds have been posted, there has been enough chatter in regards to Jones to think he goes in the first round and the over hits.
Offense vs. Defense
It has been nine years since more defensive players were taken in the top-10 than offensive players. With studs at the top like Bosa, Williams, and Allen, to well-graded prospects like Rashan Gary, Montez Sweat, and Devin White, it is very likely that we see all of these players go in the top-10 to buck the trend.
Because of this wealth of talent near the top of the draft, the projection of 16.5 defensive players taken in the first round is currently favored -140 to go over. And past the top-10, more defensive players like Brian Burns and Clelin Ferrell are expected to be selected.
But this bet may come down to the second half of the first round, where tons of offensive players are a possibility to get drafted. Not even counting the QBs, offensive linemen like Jonah Williams and Cody Ford, wide receivers Marquise Brown and D.K. Metcalf, and other skill players like Josh Jacobs and both Iowa tight ends are all day 1 projections. With under 15.5 offensive players favored at -140, I like the over at +100.
Pre-draft trades are always something to factor in as we get closer to the draft. Expect a lot more coming out of the rumor mill between now and day 1 of the draft, Thursday, April 25th.