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NFL Week 12 Vegas Odds: Vegas Insider Picks for Every Game

  • Week 12 features the Thanksgiving games with three Thursday matchups
  • Patriots and Tennesee face-off in a huge AFC game
  • Rams and Packers in potential NFC playoff preview
  • Fascinating week as 11 matchups open with a spread of 3.5 points or less

Chicago Bears (3-7) vs Detroit Lions (0-9-1)

Schedule

  • Where: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
  • When: Thursday, November 25, 12:30PM ET
  • How to watch: FOX

Vegas Odds

Detroit put up a great fight against Cleveland in Week 11 as they only went down by three points, but it appears it’s yet another hard-luck story for the Lions as they couldn’t find a way to win. Chicago are in a similar position of losing only they keep throwing away leads late in the game, and it’s hard to see how Matt Nagy stays in charge next year unless something drastically changes. I do think the Bears will win this one and win it comfortably in the end, but you can be sure that if the Lions win then Nagy will be officially done.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Bears -3.5

Las Vegas Raiders (5-5) vs Dallas Cowboys (7-3)

Schedule

  • Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
  • When: Thursday, November 25, 4:30PM ET
  • How to watch: CBS

Vegas Odds

Dallas are currently 31-21-1 in their Thanksgiving outings in the NFL, and it’s always hard to pick these ones as there have been some unexpected defeats in recent years. This time around they’re coming off a short week and a fairly resounding defeat from the Chiefs, while the offense just couldn’t get going and Dak Prescott was taking some hits. The Raiders are understandably struggling due to the sheer number of mid-season incidents they’ve had to deal with, but I see them keeping this close enough to cover.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Raiders +7

Buffalo Bills (6-4) vs New Orleans Saints (5-5)

Schedule

  • Where: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA
  • When: Thursday, November 25, 8:20PM ET
  • How to watch: NBC

Vegas Odds

Going into Week 11 the Bills were out in front as the Super Bowl favorites, but it’s hard to see that continuing after they were completely blown away at home against the Colts. The Saints are also struggling after Drew Brees retiring and then Jameis Winston going down, so they will need to rely on a solid defense to get anything here. The key to this game will be the run, and it may also come down to Alvin Kamara’s availability as he battles a knee injury. So far this season we’ve seen that the Bills are struggling to both run the ball and protect Josh Allen at times, while they are giving up some serious yardage on the ground. I can see Kamara and Ingram having a great day and the Saints finding a way to sneak the win to really pile the pressure on Buffalo.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Saints win

Carolina Panthers (5-6) vs Miami Dolphins (4-7)

Schedule

  • Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 1:00PM ET
  • How to watch: FOX

Vegas Odds

Miami are making a late charge in an attempt to remain relevant in the AFC Playoff race, but the reality is that they’ll need to win at least another two straight before that’s a conversation worth having. Carolina are still hanging around in the NFC but currently find themselves on the outside looking in, and this is a game they simply need to win. Cam Newton is settling back into his old role and the Panthers does have a defense that could shut Miami down, so I can see Carolina returning to .500 to keep their season rolling.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Panthers Win

Atlanta Falcons (4-6) vs Jacksonville Jaguars (2-8)

Schedule

  • Where: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 1:00PM ET
  • How to watch: CBS

Vegas Odds

This is a hard one to sell to anyone who doesn’t support either team, and even then you can’t really blame the fans for feeling nonplussed about this one. The Falcons looked like a frisky team who could make a playoff push, but they’ve been destroyed in their last two games, have injuries to key players and an increasingly despondent Matt Ryan is being hit time and time again behind a struggling O-Line.

That’s not to say things are much better for the Jaguars as they continue to struggle to put anything together on offense, but they do have enough to win this game, and I think the Falcons’ demise continues with another defeat.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Jaguars Win

New York Jets (2-8) vs Houston Texans (2-8)

Schedule

  • Where: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 1:00PM ET
  • How to watch: CBS

Vegas Odds

This is an interesting game when it comes to the approach from both teams. Do they want a likely meaningless win that means little at the end of the year, or do they want to somehow find a way to lose a game that will be huge when it comes to deciding Draft position next year?

The Texans pulled off the shock of the shock of Week 11 with a win over the #1 seed Titans, while the Jets looked good at times against Miami but just couldn’t get the job done.

I think the Jets are a better overall football team and also doubt that the Texans will play as well for a second week in a row, so I’m taking Robert Saleh’s men to win this one.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Jets Win

Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) vs New York Giants (3-6)

Schedule

  • Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 1:00PM ET
  • How to watch: FOX

Vegas Odds

The Eagles are really starting to play with a bit of swagger and confidence, while the Giants have been underwhelming all season so this is a big game for Philly. If they can win and Dallas somehow slip up against the Raiders, then it’s not just a playoff place that’s potentially in sights – it could also be the division as they start to close the gap.

I can’t see the Giants winning here, so it’s a simple pick to take the Eagles.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Eagles Win

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4-1) vs Cincinnati Bengals (6-4)

Schedule

  • Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 1:00PM ET
  • How to watch: CBS

Vegas Odds

It looks like the Pittsburgh bubble could be burst after the tie with Detroit and finding a way to lose to the Chargers, but this division has been so crazy all year that I just can’t confidently select either team.

Both teams saw a ton of points in their week 11 games, so I’m hoping to see more of the same as I take the over here.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Over 45.5 points

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3) vs Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

Schedule

  • Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 1:00PM ET
  • How to watch: FOX

Vegas Odds

The Bucs should still win the division and should come into this game with a win against the Giants in MNF, but we’re yet to see the usual signs of everything clicking into gear that we get from Tom Brady as December comes into view.

The Colts on the other hand are flying, but a lot of their success does come on the ground and Tampa Bay have one of the best run defenses. The difference here could be the health of Vita Vea who’s struggling with injuries and is a huge miss if he can’t play, and I think Indy really start to turn up the heat on the Titans with another win.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Colts Win

Tennessee Titans (8-3) vs New England Patriots (7-4)

Schedule

  • Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 1:00PM ET
  • How to watch: CBS

Vegas Odds

There’s no doubting that the Patriots are one of the hottest teams in football just now, but they do seem to be enjoying a rare run of luck when it comes to key injuries to opposition players.

Bill Belichick is famous for taking away what you do best, but the Titans will be without Julio Jones and Derrick Henry for this, so will it simply be a case of clamping down on A.J Brown? If he’s innefective then there’s little on this Titans offense to scare you, and it may allow the Pats defense to take over again.

I can see this being a run-heavy game as the Patriots pick their moments to let Mac Jones cook against a very strong defense, but I still see the home team winning this one easily in the end.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Patriots -5.5

Los Angeles Chargers (6-4) vs Denver Broncos (5-5)

Schedule

  • Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 4:05PM ET
  • How to watch: CBS

Vegas Odds

It does now look like the Chiefs are starting to reclaim their hold on the division after a strong run of wins, so this matchup is key when it comes to keeping the pressure on and securing a big win with playoff implications too.

Justin Herbert came alive after a disappointing few outings as he led the Chargers to a late win over the Steelers in Week 11, and I can see offense winning the day again here as they win and cover.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Chargers -1.5

Los Angeles Rams (7-3) vs Green Bay Packers (8-3)

Schedule

  • Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 4:25PM ET
  • How to watch: FOX

Vegas Odds

The Rams have been awful in their recent defeats to the Titans and the 49ers, but they have had time to rest up and work on building a better understanding within the roster after making some blockbuster moves with Von Miller and OBJ.

Aaron Rodgers was still excellent against the Vikings despite struggling with a bad toe injury, but the problem here is that L.A can generate pressure with Donald and Miller, so they can drop more into coverage and allow time for the rush to get home.

I won’t be surprised if the Packers win, but I still give the edge to the Rams as they come out with a statement win.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Rams Win

Minnesota Vikings (5-5) vs San Francisco 49ers (5-5)

Schedule

  • Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 4:25PM ET
  • How to watch: FOX

Vegas Odds

Two teams that were written off, but they are right back in the playoff hunt after impressing in back-to-back games and returning to .500 for the year. The 49ers have started to find their mojo in the running game again and also look more explosive now that Brandon Aiyuk is back out of the doghouse, so I like the home victory in this one.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: 49ers Win

Cleveland Browns (6-5) vs Baltimore Ravens (7-3)

Schedule

  • Where: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
  • When: Sunday, November 28, 8:20PM ET
  • How to watch: NBC

Vegas Odds

QB health is the main question going into this one. How much has the mystery virus taken out of Lamar Jackson, and is Baker Mayfield able to put a good game together as he battles a variety of injuries?

This game should really be decided on the ground as it’s the key strength in both offenses, but it will also open up the possibility of some big plays through the air as time goes on.

Again I struggle to pick between the teams in this division as nothing can be trusted, so I’m going for points again.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: Over 46.5

Seattle Seahawks (3-7) vs Washington Football Team (4-6)

Schedule

  • Where: FedEx Field, Greater Landover, MD 
  • When: Monday, November 29, 8:15PM ET
  • How to watch: ESPN

Vegas Odds

Every week we seem to say that if Seattle loses this game then their season is done, but surely the playoffs really will be out of reach if they don’t find a way to win this time?

WFT are starting to put some performances together as the defense improves and Taylor Heinicke continues to make plays and show why Ron Rivera has some faith in him, and I can see them winning this one too.

Vegas Insider’s Pick: WFT wins

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