NFL Vegas Odds: Updated Win Totals Favor Buffalo Bills (2022)

  • The Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers lead the way with 11.5 projected wins.
  • The Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons rank at the bottom with 4.5 wins expected.
  • 10.5 wins is the most common forecast, with 7 teams projected to win 10.5 games.

The Bills’ opening night win against the Los Angeles Rams proved why they sit at the top of the win total projections.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are projected just 9.5 wins, 6th in the AFC, after winning the conference last season.

Buffalo Bills Lead the Pack

The Bills opened the season with a scorching 31-10 road win against the defending champion Rams. The Bills dominant performance against last year’s league champs is a testament to the level of talent on their roster. The Vegas odds reflect that talent. Buffalo, led by star quarterback Josh Allen, is projected to win a league-leading 11.5 games.

Sep 8, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Buffalo Bills wide receiver Isaiah McKenzie (6) celebrates a touchdown with center Mitch Morse (60) in the second half against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Bills finished 11-6, a bit of a down year after finishing 13-3 the previous season. In 2022, the Bills have an opportunity to win a franchise-high 14 games. Road games against the Ravens on October 2, the Chiefs on October 16, and the Bengals on January 2 highlight the remaining toughest tests for Buffalo.

Bengals Expected to Regress

After winning the AFC conference last year, the Bengals are projected to win a very modest 9.5 games this season. It may seem a bit strange for the defending AFC champions to be projected such a low win total. Whether or not they are able to continue their success from last year’s postseason will play a big factor in the Bengals’ ability to repeat as division and conference champions.

Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow participated in training camp practice Sunday for the first time since having his appendix removed three weeks ago.

REDO Burrow pic: Syndication The Enquirer
Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer

Listed above the Bengals in win total in the AFC are the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens, Broncos, and Chargers. Most notably, the Ravens, Broncos, and Chargers all missed the postseason last year. While they should definitely improve, it seems foolish to project them more wins than a Bengals team that returns the dynamic combination of quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver JaMarr Chase.

ALSO SEE: NFL Week 1 Predictions: Best Prop Bets and NFL Vegas Picks

Broncos on the Rise

After acquiring long-time Seattle Seahawks starting quarterback Russell Wilson this offseason, the Broncos are positioned to do very well this year. Denver holds the NFL’s 2nd-longest playoff drought, sitting at 6 consecutive seasons with no postseason appearance. Many expect that to change this year, as Wilson will be supported by a good offensive line and a great defense.

Aug 27, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Russel Wilson (3) in the first quarter of their game against the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Despite their 7-10 finish last season, the Broncos are projected 10.5 wins, tied for 2nd overall in the AFC conference. The Broncos have two rivals in the AFC West who are also projected 10.5 wins, the Chiefs and Chargers. This division also has the Raiders, who made the playoffs last year at 10-7. Wilson will navigate a tough schedule with high expectations during his first season in Denver.

Rams Looking to Repeat

The Rams got pummeled at home in their opener against the Bills on Thursday. After winning the Super Bowl last season, the Rams were hoping to get off to a fast start, but came up well short. Departures from linebacker Von Miller on defense and wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. on offense made a visible difference as the Rams struggled on both sides of the ball.

Sep 8, 2022; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) tosses the ball in the third quarter against the Buffalo Bills at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

With a lofty win projection of 10.5, and a relatively difficult schedule, the Rams could be in danger of disappointing this season. They’ll get a bit of a break in Week 2 against the Falcons, before eventually facing road games against the Cardinals (9/25), 49ers (10/3), Buccaneers (11/6), Saints (11/20), Chiefs (11/27), Packers (12/19), and Chargers (1/1).

Steelers Sliding into Rebuild

The Steelers open the season with the lowest projected win total among playoff teams from last season. After finishing 9-7-1 in 2021, the Steelers will have a new quarterback at the helm this year. Long-time starter Ben Roethlisberger is headed to retirement. He will be replaced by Mitchell Trubisky, who beat out 2022 1st-round pick Kenny Pickett and backup Mason Rudolph for the starting job.

Aug 28, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) takes a snap against the Detroit Lions during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. The Steelers won 19-9. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

After a couple of decades of dominance in the AFC North division, the Steelers projected win total of 7.5 has them expected to finish last in the division. The speed of Pittsburgh’s rebuild will depend on just how fast Kenny Pickett can develop into an NFL-ready starting quarterback. Until then, Trubisky and the Steelers are expected to take a step back from last season.

NFL Win Totals and Odds for the 2022-23 Season

TeamProjected Win TotalOverUnder
Buffalo Bills11.5-140+120
Tampa Bay Buccaneers11.5+110-130
Baltimore Ravens10.5-160+130
Dallas Cowboys10.5-110-110
Denver Broncos10.5-110-110
Green Bay Packers10.5-110-110
Kansas City Chiefs10.5-120+100
Los Angeles Chargers10.5-140+120
Los Angeles Rams10.5+105-125
Cincinnati Bengals9.5+100-120
Indianapolis Colts9.5-105-115
Minnesota Vikings9.5-130+110
Philadelphia Eagles9.5-150+125
San Francisco 49ers9.5-110-110
Tennessee Titans9.5-105-115
Arizona Cardinals8.5-110-110
Cleveland Browns8.5+110-140
Las Vegas Raiders8.5-130+110
Miami Dolphins8.5+110-120
New England Patriots8.5-120+100
New Orleans Saints8.5-105-115
New York Giants7.5-110-110
Pittsburgh Steelers7.5+100-120
Washington Commanders7.5+100-120
Carolina Panthers6.5-110-110
Chicago Bears6.5+150-190
Detroit Lions6.5-125+105
Jacksonville Jaguars6.5+110-130
New York Jets5.5-160+130
Seattle Seahawks5.5-125+105
Atlanta Falcons4.5+125-145
Houston Texans4.5+100-120
Keith McCarthy is an experienced sports analyst with a passion for predicting the outcomes of games spanning across sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, with a special expertise in college sports.

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