Odds on Next UK Prime Minister

By Carl Taylor
in Politics
— October 20, 2022
— Updated October 21, 2022

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Liz Truss resigns after just 44 days on the job
Truss was shortest serving PM in British history
10 days of her tenure were paused after death of Queen Elizabeth

It’s back to the drawing board for the British Conservative party as they search for the next UK prime minister following the resignation of Liz Truss after just 44 days on the job – 10 of which saw the government paused following the death of Queen Elizabeth. Truss had taken over for Boris Johnson, who himself resigned on July 7th.

Budget seemed to be the main area of frustration for Truss, and one her replacement must have a plan for prior to the expected October 31st budget update. Truss unveiled a proposal for a tax-cutting budget that had some flaws, and over 100 members of the 1922 committee wrote letters of no-confidence towards the prime minister.

The debacle of Liz Truss’ short-lived premiership is a symptom of a broken economic system and a trashed democracy.

We will continue to lurch from crisis to crisis — and ordinary people will pay the price — until we finally build a society for the many, not the few.
— Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) October 20, 2022

Who is the UK Next Prime Minister?

*Odds only available through offshore bookies*

What’s unfortunate about Truss’ resignation is that the conservative party doesn’t have a whole lot of time to find her replacement with the budget plan due at the end of October. There will be a leadership election within the week, much shorter than the two-month evaluation process this Summer. Here are some of the favorites to replace Truss:

Rishi Sunak +110

The favorite to replace Truss would have to be the person she edged out for the PM job in the first place. What gives Sunak the edge here is that he’s the former finance minister of Britain and the economy is at the top of the list of concerns for UK citizens right now. Sunak would also be a progressive choice as the first Indian-origin person to hold the PM office.

Penny Mordaunt +110

Sunak is not a lock to be the UK next prime minister as Penny Mordaunt is a co-favorite as well. Aside from the economy, the Ukrainian conflict and a potential nuclear war are on top of mind for the entire globe. Mordaunt has a background as the former defense secretary. She finished third in the race behind Truss and Sunak this Summer.

Boris Johnson +900

Hop in the DeLorean because we may be going back in time as former PM Boris Johnson is said to have expressed interest in getting his old gig back. He won the general election in 2019 so really he’s the only candidate to have prior approval from the party and the public. Maybe Johnson has used his ouster as a learning experience on what to do moving forward.

One person was elected by the British public with a manifesto and a mandate until January ‘25.
If Liz Truss is no longer PM there can be no coronation of previously failed candidates.

MPs must demand return of @BorisJohnson – if not it has to be leadership election or a GE.
— Nadine Dorries (@NadineDorries) October 20, 2022

Ben Wallace +1000

Ben Wallace ruled himself out as a contender for the vacant PM position in the July race, but party officials may be begging him to get back in this week’s vote. Wallace was promoted to defense secretary in 2019, and has drawn accolades for his handling of the Ukraine situation.