UFC 279 Predictions: Khamzat Chimaev vs Nate Diaz Vegas Odds, Preview & Picks (Sept 10)

  • Khamzat Chimaev vs Nate Diaz set to headline UFC 279 this weekend.
  • 13 bouts scheduled across early prelims, prelims, and main card.
  • All you need to know, including Vegas odds and our UFC 279 predictions.

If you’re in search of some UFC 279 predictions, look no further because Vegas Odds has you covered!


Following on from last weekend’s incredible UFC Paris Fight Night, which not only saw a banger of a headline heavyweight fight between Ciryl Gane and Tai Tuivasa, but it also saw us smash the oddsmakers. If you read up on our UFC Paris prop bet preview, you may have followed our tip and backed Gane to win in the fight’s third round, and if you did, you’re a fair few dollars richer today!

Anyway – UFC Paris is the past and all focus is now on this weekend’s UFC 279. An exciting pay-per-view event between Khamzat Chimaev and legend Nate Diaz is scheduled to take place live from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, September 10, 2022.

There are 13 bouts set to take place across the event’s Early Prelims, Prelims, and Main Card, so without further ado – let’s get to it!

UFC 279: How to Watch and Start Times

  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, United States
  • Date: Saturday 10 September 2022 at 7 p.m ET
  • How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass / ESPN+

UFC 279: Announced Bouts

UFC 279 Main Card

UFC 279 Prelims

  • Featherweight: Hakeem Dawodu vs Julian Erosa
  • Heavyweight: Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Jailton Almeida
  • Middleweight: Denis Tiuliulin vs Jamie Pickett
  • Heavyweight: Jake Collier vs Chris Barnett

UFC 279 Early Prelims

  • Women’s Featherweight: Norma Dumont vs Danyelle Wolf
  • Bantamweight: Chad Anheliger vs Alatengheili
  • Women’s Strawweight: Melissa Martinez vs Elise Reed
  • Welterweight: Darian Weeks vs Yohan Lainesse

UFC 279 Predictions and Vegas Odds

Welterweight: Khamzat Chimaev vs Nate Diaz

This is a really tough matchup for Nate Diaz. Perhaps the hardest of his career.

Khamzat Chimaev is on a tear. Not only is the Swedish grappler unbeaten in his professional mixed martial arts career (11-0), but he has also stormed his way through all five of his opponents in the UFC, including previous title challenger Gilbert Burns.

Khamzat Chimaev, left, congratulates Gilbert Burns on a valiant effort Saturday, April 9, 2022 during UFC 273 at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville. Chimaev won the welterweight bout by unanimous decision.

Pom Corey April 14
© Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

As the Vegas odds reflect, it is really hard to see any outcome other than a Chimaev win, in fact, we expect Saturday night’s main event to be so one-sided that it could even end within the first five minutes.

Khamzat Chimaev-1600
Nate Diaz+800

UFC 279 Predictions:

  • Khamzat Chimaev to win in Round 1

Welterweight: Li Jingliang vs Tony Ferguson

Failure to win this weekend is likely to see Tony Ferguson cut from the UFC.

The 38-year-old is on a disastrous four-fight skid, which has included an absolutely brutal knockout against Michael Chandler, and even though he will always be considered a legend among fight fans, when it comes to trying to get the best of China’s Li Jingliang, we really fear for ‘El Cucuy’ in this one.

May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Michael Chandler (right) kicks Tony Ferguson for the knockout during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

We think Ferguson’s best chance of victory could come on the ground, especially considering Jingliang has conceded 17 of the 43 takedowns he has faced.

However, failure to get the fight to the ground and lock in a submission, Ferguson could be in for a tough night at the office.

Given the fact this fight is scheduled for just three rounds, as well as taking both fighter’s insane durability into consideration, we wouldn’t be surprised to see this one go the distance.

Li Jingliang-315
Tony Ferguson+265

UFC 279 Predictions:

  • Fight to go the distance – YES

Catchweight: Kevin Holland vs Daniel Rodriguez

Kevin Holland’s matchup against Daniel Rodriguez is set to be at 180 pounds and this will probably favor the latter.

This is a very even fight though. Both of these guys are riding three-fight unbeaten runs but Holland has looked best since dropping down from middleweight to welterweight so Saturday night’s 10 pounds increase in weight could serve as a major disadvantage for the Phalanx MMA Academy graduate.

Not only will weight be a major factor in this one, but Rodriguez also boasts the better striking statistics.

April 10, 2021; Las Vegas, NV, USA; Daniel Rodriguez punches Mike Perry in a welterweight fight during the UFC Fight Night event at UFC APEX on April 10, 2021 in Las Vegas, Nevada.    Mandatory Credit: Chris Unger/Handout Photo via USA TODAY Sports
Chris Unger/Handout Photo via USA TODAY Sports

The 35-year-old lands 8.2 strikers per minute, which is over double Holland’s number. Not only that, but Rodriguez also has the better record when it comes to fights being on the feet and at distance.

If this one stays on the feet and Holland is unable to target his trademark submission attempts, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the dog prevail.

Kevin Holland-200
Daniel Rodriguez+170

UFC 279 Predictions:

  • Daniel Rodriguez to win

Women’s Bantamweight: Irene Aldana vs Macy Chiasson

Oddly, both of these females’ recent records are virtually identical. Although both ladies will come into Saturday’s matchup off the back of victories, they’re both prone to inconsistencies.

Given how razor-thin this one is to call and the fact there isn’t much between either bantamweight, we’re going to back Aldana purely due to her superior ability to finish her opponents.

Jul 10, 2021; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Irene Aldana pins Yana Kunitskaya to the mat during UFC 264 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Ultimately though, we would advise extreme caution if and when betting on this one.

Irene Aldana-185
Macy Chiasson+160

UFC 279 Predictions:

  • Irene Aldana to win via KO / TKO

Light Heavyweight: Johnny Walker vs Ion Cutelaba

What a way to open Saturday’s Main Card.

Fan-favorite Johnny Walker will be desperate to get back into the win column after suffering back-to-back defeats against Thiago Santos and Jamahal Hill.

Cutelaba will also be eager to pick up a win. Even though the Moldovian’s recent record isn’t as bad as Walker’s, he has only picked up one victory in his last three outings (1-1-1).

Sep 28, 2019; Copenhagen, DEN; Ion Cutelaba (red gloves) reacts after defeating Khalil Rountree Jr. (blue gloves) during UFC Fight Night at Royal Arena. Mandatory Credit: Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports
Per Haljestam-USA TODAY Sports

Nevertheless, regardless of which light heavyweight comes away with their hand raised on Saturday, one thing is almost certain – expect fireworks early on and a possible finish from either fighter.

Between them, Walker and Cutelaba boast a whopping 27 knockout and four submission victories, so it is fair to assume that one of these guys will be going to sleep this weekend.

Johnny Walker+180
Ion Cutelaba-210

UFC 279 Predictions:

  • Fight to go the distance – NO
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