UFC 286 Predictions: Edwards vs Usman 3 Odds & Picks (Mar 18)

  • Leon Edwards and Kamaru Usman meet for the third time.
  • Justin Gaethje is trying to make himself relevant again.
  • Gunnar Nelson hoping for another finish.

In search of some UFC 286 predictions? – Well, you’re in the right place!

The O2 Arena in London will serve as the host venue for UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 on Saturday, March 18, 2023.

The event is taking place in the home country of the reigning UFC Welterweight Champion Leon Edwards who got ahold of the championship belt after a shocking KO against Kamaru Usman seven months ago.

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Edwards vs Usman 3 is this weekend’s main event, but there are plenty of other hot matchups on the fight card you mustn’t miss. This goes especially for the other four main card fights, all of which we’re going to analyze in this post – so, without further ado, let’s get into it and break down all of our UFC 286 predictions.

UFC 286 Predictions: Edwards vs Usman 3

Leon Edwards vs Kamaru Usman

Leon Edwards+210
Kamaru Usman-250

It’s payback time! Kamaru Usman is going to get his championship belt back this Saturday, the one he used to hold for more than two years. He lost it by accident after Edwards knocked him out in the final minute of the fifth round.

Before that, Usman was literally killing him in the octagon in a similar manner to what he did in their first-ever fight in 2015, which The Nigerian Nightmare won by unanimous decision.


Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

Justin Gaethje+190
Rafael Fiziev-225

Justin Gaethje is a former UFC Lightweight Champion who only has four losses in his portfolio. And those losses happened by such legends as Khabib Nurmagomedov, Charles Oliveira, Dustin Poirier, and Eddie Alvarez.

December 2, 2017 - Detroit, Michigan, USA - September 16, 2017: Justin Gaethje heads to his corner in his fight with Eddie Alvarez during UFC 218 at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan. UFC 2017: 218 Holloway vs Aldo 2  - ZUMAt137 20171202_zap_t137_075 Copyright: xScottxTaetschx
Copyright: Scott Taetsch

Knowing this, you might wonder why he’s the underdog against Rafael Fiziev. It’s because Fiziev looked really good in almost every UFC fight he’s had so far. After losing on his UFC debut, this guy went on to win the next six fights, earning himself the Performance of the Night bonus for three of those, as well as another two Fight of the Night bonuses.

There’s no doubt Gaethje vs Fiziev is going to be a fun fight to watch as well. Anything can happen here, including the underdog winning, which is our top pick.


Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena

Gunnar Nelson-450
Bryan Barberena+350

Gunnar Nelson is a grappling expert whose professional MMA record is 18-5-1. All five of his losses happened in the UFC to opponents fairly better than his next rival, Bryan Barberena who’s 18-9 overall.

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The Icelandic fighter should have a relatively easy job on Saturday as Barberena is the kind of opponent he likes. He’ll probably try to take the opponent down and submit him on the floor, which is something he should be able to do.

In his last six fights, Barberena got taken down 26 times in total against opponents who aren’t as submission-focused as Nelson. 


Jennifer Maia vs Casey O’Neill

Jennifer Maia+140
Casey O’Neill-165

Casey O’Neill is 9-0 in her professional career with three finishes in four UFC fights. She’s an excellent kickboxer with decent grappling/wrestling skills, meaning that he’s got plenty of weapons in her arsenal. What she doesn’t have is experience. At least, not as great as her opponent at UFC 286.

February 12, 2022, Houston, Texas, Houston, TX, United States: HOUSTON, TX - FEBRUARY 12: L-R Casey O Neill punches Roxanne Modafferi in their women flyweight fight during the UFC 271 event at Toyota Center on February 12, 2022 in Houston, Texas, United States. Houston, Texas United States - ZUMAp175 20220212_zsa_p175_043 Copyright: xLouisxGrassex
Copyright: Louis Grasse

Jennifer Maia is a former UFC Women’s Flyweight contender with a career record of 20-9. Most of her losses happened by decision. In fact, the last time he suffered a defeat by stoppage was in 2013.

We don’t think O’Neill is going to finish her, but we think she is going to win in the end.


Marvin Vettori vs Roman Dolidze

Marvin Vettori-300
Roman Dolidze+250

Marvin Vettori is a middleweight fighter who fought (and defeated Paulo Costa) in the Light Heavyweight division in 2021. Since coming back to the 185-pound division, he’s 0-1 with the loss happening to Robert Whittaker last September.

Is Vettori going to make it 1-1 this Saturday when he’s taking on Roman Dolidze? We say no. He might be superior to Dolidze in wrestling, but the Georgian fighter is a much better boxer than him. Plus, he’s three inches taller than Vettori with a two-inch reach advantage.


So there you have it – those are all of our UFC 286 predictions.

Disagree with any? – Let us know in the comments section below.

Annie is a seasoned veteran in sports betting and has been working in the industry for over 7 years. Her goal of educating others and sharing her knowledge on the topic has brought her to VegasOdds.com where she regularly contributes to our cornerstone guides and news to help readers improve their sports betting game. If you don’t find her writing, you can bet she’ll be studying sports stats!

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