UFC Predictions: Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan Vegas Odds, Preview & Picks (Oct 1)

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  • in MMA
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  • UFC returns to Apex Centre this weekend.
  • 13 bouts scheduled across Prelims and Main Card.
  • Mackenzie Dern and Xiaonan Yan set to headline.

If you’re in search of some UFC predictions, look no further – Vegas Odds has you covered.

Following a two-week break, the UFC is set to return to the promotion’s state-of-the-art Apex Centre in Las Vegas for a Fight Night headlined by women’s strawweights Mackenzie Dern and Xiaonan Yan.

UFC Fight Night Dern vs Yan: How to Watch and Start Times

  • Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, United States
  • Date: Saturday 1 October 2022 at 5 p.m. ET
  • How to Watch: UFC Fight Pass / ESPN+

UFC Fight Night: Announced Bouts

UFC Fight Night Main Card

  • Women’s Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan
  • Welterweight: Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo
  • Bantamweight: Raoni Barcelos vs Trevin Jones                                                 
  • Featherweight: Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis
  • Bantamweight: John Castaneda vs Daniel Santos
  • Lightweight: Mike Davis vs Viacheslav Borshchev

UFC Fight Night Prelims

  • Heavyweight: Ilir Latifi vs Aleksei Oleinik
  • Women’s Strawweight: Jessica Penne vs Tabatha Ricci                                              
  • Lightweight: Joaquim Silva vs Jesse Ronson
  • Middleweight: Krzysztof Jotko vs Brendan Allen
  • Light Heavyweight: Maxim Grishin vs Philipe Lins
  • Catchweight: Leah Letson vs Chelsea Chandler
  • Bantamweight: Guido Cannetti vs Randy Costa                                                                                   

UFC Predictions and Vegas Odds

Women’s Strawweight: Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan

Mackenzie Dern vs Xiaonan Yan is a typical clash between a grappler and a striker. Dern is a grappling expert, who used to practice Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and submission grappling for ages before switching to mixed martial arts, winning a number of gold medals along the way.

Since becoming a mixed martial artist in 2016, her record is 12-2, with seven of those wins happening via submission. The other five happened by points, while she’s still without a win by knockout/technical knockout.

It’s just the opposite when it comes to Yan, who’s 15-3 overall with seven wins by KO/TKO and eight by decision, with no submission wins.

So which fighting style will prevail in the headliner of the UFC Fight Night 211? We think it should be Dern’s.

UFC Predictions:

Welterweight: Randy Brown vs Francisco Trinaldo

Francisco Trinaldo is an MMA veteran who’s already 44, and who’s been fighting professionally since 2006. His record is 28-8, with most of his losses happening in the previous decade. Actually, he’s suffered just two defeats since turning 40, while winning six fights. Most of those wins happened by decision, suggesting that he still has the stamina for marathon fights.

Unfortunately for him, so does his next opponent, Randy Brown, who’s 12 years his junior. Brown is 15-4 overall, with a 9-4 record in the UFC. Five of his 13 UFC bouts went the distance, including the previous two times when he was in the octagon.

May 7, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Randy Brown following his victory against Khaos Williams during UFC 274 at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

We think the Trinaldo vs Brown fight will go the distance as well. But who will win? We think it can go either way really, but if we had to pick one, we’d go for Brown.

UFC Predictions:

Bantamweight: Raoni Barcelos vs Trevin Jones

Raoni Barcelos is an established grappler and wrestler, who’s been doing great striking-wise since becoming an MMA pro. So far, he’s 16-3, with 50% of his wins happening by KO/TKO.

This Saturday, he’s taking on Trevin Jones, who’s also a well-rounded fighter with amazing stamina. Jones’ record, however, isn’t as impressive as Barcelos’. He is 13-8-1 right now.

Anything can happen in a fight like this, but we think Barcelos is slightly better than his opponent. Still, he doesn’t look superior enough for us to back him with a lot of money. Instead, our pick is that the fight will last for all three rounds.

UFC Predictions:

Featherweight: Sodiq Yusuff vs Don Shainis

Sodiq Yusuff (12-2) is given the shortest odds of all the fighters that will go inside the octagon on Saturday. Priced at -1200, he’s expected to have an easy job against Don Shainis (12-3).

January 18, 2020; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Sodiq Yusuff is declared the winner by unanimous decision against Andre Fili during UFC 246 at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Although Shainis doesn’t have a much worse record than Yusuff, the thing is that hasn’t yet fought in the UFC. In fact, he’s making his promotional debut on Saturday.

Yusuff, on the other hand, has been in the UFC for almost four years. He got his contract after beating Mike Davis in Dana White Contender Series 14. Since then, he’s 5-1, with three wins by decision and two by KO/ TKO.

We think he’s going to record his third knockout win in the UFC this coming Saturday.

UFC Predictions:

Bantamweight: John Castaneda vs Daniel Santos

John Castaneda is 19-5 in his professional MMA career with a 2-1 win since joining the UFC. He’s a well-rounded fighter who tends to land a lot of strikes, which is something that should worry his next opponent.

The thing is that Daniel Santos takes 8.47 significant strikes per minute, which is almost two times as Castaneda. On the bright side for him is that he seems to have a strong chin, the evidence being that he’s still without a knockout loss in his career. In fact, he is 9-2 so far, with both of his losses happening via decision.

Still, the fact is that he hasn’t fought against such a good opponent as Castaneda. That said, we expect to see “Sexi Mexi” get his job done before the final bell.

UFC Predictions:

Lightweight: Mike Davis vs Viacheslav Borshchev

Here’s a fight that could be voted the Fight of the Night. Why? Because both Davis and Borshchev are aggressive fighters who usually land (and receive) a lot of strikes. Each fighter also likes finishing fights early.

Davis is 9-2 overall, with nine of his fights finishing inside the distance. It’s a similar story when it comes to Borshchev, whose record is 6-2, with five fights finishing in under three rounds.

We expect this fight to finish in under three rounds as well, almost certainly with a knockout. But who will KO who? Our vote goes to Davis as he simply has a better portfolio than his next opponent.

UFC Predictions:

Annie is a seasoned veteran in sports betting and has been working in the industry for over 7 years. Her goal of educating others and sharing her knowledge on the topic has brought her to VegasOdds.com where she regularly contributes to our cornerstone guides and news to help readers improve their sports betting game. If you don’t find her writing, you can bet she’ll be studying sports stats!

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