What Were the Vegas Odds of Trump Winning?

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What are the Vegas odds of Trump winning the 2020 Election? Well, they’re pretty much the same as they were four years ago when he squared off with Hilary Clinton. Once again, the oddsmakers think of him as the underdog. But in 2016, America didn’t get its first female President. Instead, the underdog won and is now hoping to get another term in the office.

Can he do it again? Betting odds definitely look tempting, with some sportsbooks offering as much as +175. Unfortunately, American bettors cannot take advantage of the odds. Why? Because betting on the Presidential Election is not legal in the United States. Vegas Odds of Trump Winning do not exist anywhere in America, but they can be found at offshore betting sites.

Actually, industry experts suggest that the US Presidential Election is the most popular betting event in offshore sportsbooks. With only a couple of weeks remaining before the Trump vs Biden Election clash, the operators are handling 10 times the amount of wagers they did in February when the Super Bowl took place.  

Trump vs Biden – Odds of Winning the 2020 Election

The Vegas odds of Trump winning in November are not available anywhere on US soil. However, not only are they available offshore, but it seems that every offshore sportsbook has this market in its offer. BetOnline.ag, Bovada, BetUS – all of them offer odds for Trump vs Biden.

So, who’s the favorite? Joe Biden is, as you can see for yourself from the table below:

SportsbookDonald TrumpJoe Biden

The odds are clearly in Biden’s favor, but the same was the case four years ago. Actually, Trump’s odds of winning were even worse back then. Still, despite being a +550 underdog at one point in 2016, Trump was the one who got to move into the White House.  

What Were the Vegas Odds of Trump Winning in 2016?

In the days before the Election day of 2016, Trump’s odds of winning were as much as +190 at some sportsbooks. If this seems shocking, wait until you hear about what were the Vegas Odds of Trump winning on the Election night – at around 8 PM on that faithful day, Trump’s odds were +550.

Everyone seemed to think we’re going to see another member of the Clinton Family ruling the United States. Some sportsbooks like Paddy Power even decided to pay out Clinton Bettors in advance, thinking there was no way Trump was going to win. The poor judgment cost them almost a million dollars.

Historia est Magistra Vitae – As ancient Romans used to say, history is life’s teacher. Events from the past teach us about what might happen in the future. If Trump managed to upset the odds in 2016, perhaps he could be able to do the same in 2020?

Well, he might, but keep in mind that the year 2016 was a very strange year from the betting perspective. Apart from Trump winning the election, bettors witnessed many other upsets, including:

  • Leicester City winning the English Premier League at +500,000
  • The UK voting “Leave” in the Brexit referendum at +600
  • Chicago Cubs winning the World Series at +1,000
  • Denver Broncos beating Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50 at +150
  • Conor McGregor suffering his first UFC defeat to Nate Diaz at +380

In 2020, bettors haven’t witnessed too many upsets, which begs the question of whether it’s overdue?  

Current Odds Favoring Biden

Odds change all the time – it’s how they work. If bettors are putting a lot of money on one outcome, the sportsbooks need to adjust the odds so if that outcome wins, they aren’t going to have to pay out too much money.

For instance, if a lot of money is being wagered on Joe Biden at -190, sportsbooks will react by moving the odds to -210. This way, if Biden actually wins, they aren’t going to lose as much money as they would if they left the odds at -190. Simultaneously, they will also change the odds on Trump, presenting the Republican candidate as a more attractive prospect for bettors.  

Exactly that is what’s been happening over the last couple of weeks. Presidential Election odds have been changing constantly, making Biden an even stronger favorite. The obvious explanation for this is that bettors have started putting more money on Biden than before.

However, it wasn’t always like that. Back in February, the odds of Trump winning his second presidency were as short as -180. At the time, Joe Biden’s odds were +2,000. So, what happened since? COVID-19 happened.

What Were Trump’s Odds of Winning Before the Pandemic Started?

Betting odds depend strictly on the bettors’ behavior. Their behavior, however, depends on a variety of factions. Some bettors didn’t like the way he handled himself in the Presidential Debate, some didn’t like his recent tweets. Then, there are also those bettors who may still love the President but want to ensure they don’t end up double-losers if the Democrat wins.

Still, judging by how the odds have been moving this year, it seems that Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 situation is the key factor. For instance, we saw a major odds move the day when it was announced he tested positive for coronavirus. His odds did improve slightly when he got out of the hospital, but are still nowhere near the pre-pandemic number.

Throughout February, most offshore sportsbooks were giving -180 on Trump, but then in March the odds suddenly changed. On March 16, the Vegas odds of Trump winning went to +105. What happened? President issued new COVID-19 guidelines, practically putting the United States under a lockdown.

Another major odds change happened in summer when it became clear Joe Biden is going to be the candidate of the Democratic Party. That’s when his odds moved to -110 never to go back. In fact, they have been changing in his favor constantly since then.


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