Vegas Odds Best Bets NFL Week 9: Locks, Dogs, and Props

By · 214 days ago

Week 9 NFL bets get underway on Thursday night in what looks like a real stinker of a game between the undefeated Eagles (7-0) and the 1-5 Texans. The +14 point spread is one you don’t touch in the NFL so let’s move on to the Sunday games for this week’s newsletter.

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NFL Week 9 Lock 🔒

Panthers at Bengals (-7.5), Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Sure they’ve pulled off some upsets like the 21-3 win over Tampa Bay and stayed closer than expected like in the 37-34 OT loss at Atlanta last week but make no mistake Carolina (2-6) is not good. The Bengals have played at home just twice in the last seven games, and both of them have been double-digit wins. Pick: Bengals -7.5

NFL Week 9 Picks ✔️

Dolphins at Bears Over 45.5, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

Chicago has looked much better on offense the past two weeks 33-14 win over the Patriots two Mondays ago and scoring nearly 30 against the Cowboys last Sunday. Their defense on the other hand gave up two straight TD drives to New England QB Bailey Zappe off the bench and let Dallas do whatever they wanted in a 49-29 loss last Sunday.

The Bears defense will continue to struggle here against Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and the Miami passing game especially after Chicago recently traded the top two players in their front 7, Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. Miami has also allowed 24+ points in 4 of their last 5 though, and the Bears may have a few new wrinkles after acquiring WR Chase Claypool from Pittsburgh this week. Pick: Over 45.5

Packers at Lions (+3.5), Sunday 1:00 PM ET

This game is a jumping-off point for Green Bay bettors – either the team gets the win that gets their season back on track or you wave the white flag and wait for Aaron Rodgers retirement/trade drama in the offseason. Even when Green Bay was on top of the NFC North, they’ve had their struggles with Detroit splitting the last 10 games 5-5 straight up. The Lions have covered the number in 8 of the last 10 head-to-head and have lost their three home contests this season by just a combined 10 points. Pick: Detroit +3.5

Raiders (-1.5) at Jaguars, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

This is where everybody continues to clown the Raiders – and for good reason. Las Vegas had a chance to get their first winning streak of the year going last week against the Saints as a slight favorite on the road – and they ended up losing 24-0. Now everybody is saying they are done with the Raiders, but New Orleans also has a really good offense and a defensive-minded coach – something the Jaguars do not. The Jaguars have been held to 17 points or less in 3 of their last 4 and are coming back from London where they lost 21-17 to the Broncos last week. Pick: Raiders -1.5

Rams at Buccaneers Under 42.5, Sunday 4:25 PM ET

Two teams with NFC Championship aspirations meet up in the midst of disappointing 3-win seasons so far. The Rams are on the road for the first time in a month in this spot and their offense is in shambles scoring over 24 points just once this season. Tampa Bay has lost three in a row though and five of their last six, but they did look a bit better in losing to Baltimore 27-22 last week – even if the Bucs were 2-point home favorites. Gotta take the points in a toss-up game. Pick: Rams +3

NFL Week 9 Props 📈

Derek Carr Under 246.5 Pass Yards

Carr could easily bounce back here after season lows in completions (15) and yards (101) last week in the 24-0 loss to the Saints. We like the Raiders to beat the Jaguars, but it won’t necessarily be through the air as Josh Jacobs needs to get back on track after just 10 carries for 43 yards last week after going for 140+ in the previous three. Carr is also on the injury report (back) as is WR Mack Hollins (heel) and although both are probable Davante Adams has drawn the questionable tag with an illness. Carr hasn’t topped 246.5 in the last four games.

Justin Fields Over 223.5 Pass+Rush Yards

Fields has looked the most comfortable in the NFL as he ever has over the last two games, a 33-14 win over New England and then a 49-29 loss to the Cowboys. The Bears are calling more designed runs for Fields and he had 14 carries for 82 yards against the Patriots and then 8 rushes for 60 yards vs Dallas. Keeping up that average he only needs about 153 pass yards to hit this ‘over’ and Miami is allowing 262.1 ypg through the air.

Geno Smith Under 250.5 Pass Yards

This could be a very popular ‘over’ play for the NFL week 9 bets since Arizona gives up 260.9 ypg passing to opposing QBs. This game also has a betting total of 49.5 which is tied for highest of the week, but ever since Seattle has found Kenneth Walker III as their workhorse RB three games ago Geno Smith has 197, 210, and 212 passing yards. Sticking with the under trend seems to be the way to go here.

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