NCAA Tournament 2024 – Bubble Watch and Seed Predictions

By · Updated 1 month ago
  • Selection Sunday is now less than a week away!
  • Conference Championships take place this week.
  • The bubble is loaded with many deserving teams.

As Selection Sunday and the 2024 NCAA Tournament approach, let’s take a look at all of the teams that should make the field, as well as most of the teams sitting on the bubble. We’ve split them into five tiers.

Tier 1 – Locked In

Alabama, Arizona, Auburn, Baylor, BYU, Clemson, Creighton, Dayton, Drake, Duke, Florida, Gonzaga, Houston, Illinois, Iowa State, James Madison, Kansas, Kentucky, Longwood, Marquette, Morehead State, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, Northwestern, Samford, San Diego State, South Carolina, Stetson, St. Mary’s, Tennessee, Texas, Texas Tech, UConn, Utah State, Washington State, Wisconsin


Almost nobody has had a better past month than Nevada, who has won 10 of their last 11 games. The Wolfpack rose from out of the field entirely to a lock to make it in that span. Their 7-5 record against Quad 1 will earn them a spot in the field.

  • IN (7-seed)

Washington State

Washington State finished 2nd in the Pac-12’s regular season standings, after entering the year expected to place 10th. They’re well on their way to making their first NCAA Tournament since 2008, despite sitting somewhat low in the NET rankings.

  • IN (6-seed)

Tier 2 – Right Side of the Bubble

Boise State, Colorado, Colorado State, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Oklahoma, TCU, Virginia


The Horned Frogs should be safely in, but a 3-6 record over the past month and change has made things a tiny bit less certain. TCU may be punished a bit for their weak non-conference slate, but they picked up enough quality wins to make the field.

  • IN (9-seed)


Colorado has sat right on the bubble for quite a long time, only recently making it into a more safe position as a possible 10-seed. The Buffaloes don’t have many stellar wins, but will be aided by a 9-9 record against Q1+2 with no bad losses. They’re in.

  • IN (10-seed)

Tier 3 – On the Cusp

Mississippi State, New Mexico, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Texas A&M, Utah, Villanova, Wake Forest


Villanova spent much of the season flying under the radar, entering 2024 with a record of 11-10. Since then, they’ve heated up, staking a legitimate claim for an at-large bid. Even so, their record of 17-14 is glaring. The Wildcats have work to do.

  • IN (11-seed)

New Mexico

The Lobos are seeking to join five other Mountain West teams in the top two tiers, but are stuck in a tough position. Despite a top-30 NET ranking, New Mexico is held back by a 10-8 record in conference play and a subpar SOS. They need to avoid losing.

  • OUT (First Four Out)

Tier 4 – Wrong Side of the Bubble

Butler, Cincinnati, Iowa, Kansas State, Ohio State, Ole Miss, Oregon, Pittsburgh, Syracuse


The Hawkeys charted a climb into the NET’s top-60 teams following a 4-1 stretch that included road wins at Michigan State and Northwestern. Despite that success, Iowa is still in a tough spot. They’ll face a “bubble elimination game” against Ohio St.

  • OUT (Next Four Out)


Syracuse is no stranger to making a surprise late appearance on Selection Sunday. They often find themselves on the bubble, and usually work their win in. Unfortunately, this Orange team is too far from the bubble to include, ranked #79 in the NET.

  • OUT (Next Four Out)

Tier 5 – At-Large Long Shots

Indiana, Loyola-Chicago, Memphis, Minnesota, NC State, Richmond, South Florida, UNLV, Virginia Tech

South Florida

USF found themselves in the AP Top 25 after a 15-game winning streak. Unfortunately, they barely scraped the bubble during that span, before their loss at Tulsa sent them tumbling further. An at-large bid is unlikely for them, but not impossible.

  • OUT (NIT)


Tell me if you’ve heard this story before. Memphis opened up with high expectations, spent some time in the top-25, and then eventually collapsed en route to an NIT appearance. Not much changed this year, with the 2024 Tigers on the same path.

  • OUT (NIT)
Keith McCarthy
Contributor Keith McCarthy is an experienced sports analyst with a passion for predicting the outcomes of games spanning across sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, with a special expertise in college sports.

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