Understanding Point Spreads

The point spread is one of the most popular sports bets. It works differently from the moneyline or the Over/Under betting, because with the point spread, betting considers the margin of victory.

Essentially, the oddsmakers create a handicap to turn an uneven matchup into a 50/50 event. As many gambling pundits like to say, the spread is something that “levels the playing field”.

For all those who aren’t into spreads and handicaps, this is the perfect place, as this article reveals everything about the topic.

Favorite vs. Underdog

Knowing which team is the favorite and which is the underdog is pretty easy. The moneyline tells it all, as it’s determined by the plus (+) or minus (-) sign next to the number.

To put it simply, the PLUS goes next to the underdog and the MINUS next to the favorite.

Now, here is how the spread math works:

• The Favorite (-): Side which is “giving” points. To win a spread bet on the Favorite, it must win the game by more than the indicated number.
• The Underdog (+): This side is “getting” points. In this case, winning a spread bet on the underdog requires for it to either win the game outright OR lose by less than the spread number.

How Covering the Spread Works

Here is an example of whether the spread bet was a losing or a winning one.

Team	Spread	Final Score	Adjusted Score	Bet Outcome
Team A (Fav)	-7.5	28	28 – 7.5 = 20.5	Loss
Team B (Dog)	+7.5	21	21 + 7.5 = 28.5	Win

In this scenario, Team A won 28-21.

Yet, it didn’t “cover the spread.” Why?

Because Team A failed to win by more than 7.5 points. It ended up short by half a point, making the bet unsuccessful.

Meanwhile, if the bet was on Team B, it turned out to be a winning one. They lost half a point fewer (7) than the spread (7.5).

Key Concepts to Know Spread Betting

The “Hook” (.5)

The spread can be any number, whole or decimal. Now, if you come across a decimal spread, like 7.5, that half-point is called the hook. Its purpose is to prevent ties/pushes.

The score in most popular sports can’t include half-points. Let’s say in basketball, or soccer, American football, tennis, etc.

Here, the number of possible outcomes is lowered to two because there’s no tie involved, so there has to be a winner.

The “Push”

This is the opposite situation from the one in the previous paragraph.

If a spread is a whole number, let’s say 3, and the favorite wins by exactly that number, 21-18, the bet is a push.

In this case, there are no winners, and the sportsbook refunds the bet. Now you see why the hook is implemented.

The “Vig” or “Juice”

Next to the spread, you’ll see another number, usually -110. This is the cost of placing the bet.

• -110 means you must bet $110 to make a $100 profit.
• This $10 difference is called JUICE or the VIG. It’s basically the commission that the sportsbook takes for its services.

When you see “reduced juice” somewhere, it means the commission is lower, and the odds are more favorable for the players, usually -105.

Why Does the Spread Move?

The spread is not a static prediction of the score – it is a tool to balance the betting “action.” The spread often oscillates depending on several factors. The most importnat of them are the following.

Public Money

Often, the sportsbook reacts under the pressure of the public and their bets.

Example:

One team is favored by 7 points, and many see it as a strong favorite and the overall impression is that it’s a huge favorite.  

In such circumstances, the public will bet on that team covering the spread. To control potential losses and protect their own stability and liquidity, sportsbooks might increase the spread by half a point to 7.5, making betting on the Under more tempting again, and to restore the balance in betting volume.

Weather

High winds or snow often narrow the expected margin of victory in football, tightening spreads. Imagine any outdoor sport played in bad weather.

Injuries/Suspensions

If an important player is ruled out due to an injury or suspension, it will hurt his team’s chances of winning and increase the rival’s prospects. Here, the spread will undoubtedly shift in the rival’s favor.