How to Fill Out a March Madness Bracket (Step-by-Step Guide)
Filling out a March Madness bracket is one of the most popular traditions in US sports. Whether it’s played in an office pool or online, with friends or complete strangers, do knows that the right strategy can provide a considerable edge.
That’s why we developed a proven way to build a strong bracket. There are several rules any US (or any other) bettor must understand, and all of them are listed in this March Madness bracket guide. Also, for those who want to make some wagers, here is the full betting page with all the games.
Understand How the Bracket Works
March Madness features 68 teams in a single-elimination tournament.
After the First Four (the preceding play-in round), the main bracket has 64 teams split into four regions. Each region produces one Final Four team, and the winners of the opening game at F4 advance to the championship.
The bettors must correctly predict:
- Round of 64
- Round of 32
- Sweet 16
- Elite Eight
- Final Four
- Champion
Most pools reward more points in later rounds, so the final picks matter the most, and they can significantly outweigh the previous ones.
How to Fill in the March Madness Bracket
Start with the No. 1 Seeds
No. 1 seeds are basically the foundation. Historically, they reach the Final Four most often and win the championship more frequently than any other seed.
Rule of thumb:
- Pick at least one No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four.
- Pick one or two to go deep.
Avoid eliminating all top seeds early, because March Madness history has proven that this rarely works. Sure, if it happens, it provides a great edge, but that’s very, very rare.
Choose Upsets Carefully
Upsets make or break a bracket, but too many will destroy it.
The practice has proved that some matchups deliver more upsets than others, there’s plenty of historical examples about that. Also, there are some where almost always the favorite triumph, and all are presented in the table below.
| Best Upset Matchups | Worst Upset Matchups |
|---|---|
| 12 vs 5 | 15 over 2 |
| 11 vs 6 | 16 over 1 |
| 10 vs 7 | |
| 13 vs 4 |
Many bettors rush to include too many surprises, but overall, we usually witness 6 to 8 total first-round upsets.
Use Basic Team Stats
Bettors don’t need advanced analytics or super-costly stat tools. Just focus on key areas.
Look for teams that have:
- Strong defense
- Low turnovers
- Good free-throw shooting
- Experienced guards
- Balanced scoring
When things get tough and two teams go toe-to-toe, these qualities help teams survive close tournament games, even if the March Madness odds aren’t suggesting such outcome.
Study Recent Form and Injuries
Late-season performance matters. Some teams are targeting the form for the latter part of the campaign, so they have the momentum and are at their peak during the NCAA tournament. So, before locking your picks, check:
- Last 8 to 10 games
- Conference tournament results
- Key injuries or suspensions
A strong team missing a star player is risky, no matter the seed. This not only disturbs the chemistry but also changes the playstyle in the worst possible moment.
Check Matchups, Not Just Rankings
Some teams match up better than others.
Examples:
- Slow team vs fast team
- Zone defense vs poor shooters
- Big frontcourt vs small lineup
If a lower seed matches up well stylistically, an upset is more likely. Simply, sometimes, a certain playstyle or some other characteristic of a certain team isn’t suitable for a favorite or a higher seed.
Pick a Realistic Champion
Your champion is the most important choice. As we said, the latter March Madness stages are the ones that carry the most points.
Most winners come from the top three seeds, sometimes that can go down to No.6, yet that scenario is rare. Safe strategy when looking for your perfect March Madness bracket is to choose a top seed that:
- Won its conference
- Has a strong defense
- Has tournament experience
Balance Safe Picks and Risk
Winning pools require balance. The bettor has to look at the broader picture and act accordingly in the environment.
| Small Pool (10 to 20 participants) | Large Pool (100+ participants) |
|---|---|
| Play it safe | Take calculated risks |
| Favor the top seeds | Pick one to two bold Final Four teams |
| Limit risky picks | Choose a slightly unexpected champion |
More entries mean more risk is needed.
Do Not Overthink the First Round
Many people lose by over-analyzing early games.
Simple rule:
- Favor higher seeds unless you see a clear reason not to
- Avoid emotional picks
- Ignore hot takes online
Consistency beats guessing.
Use a Simple Bracket Formula
Here is a proven structure.
| Round | Bracket Structure |
|---|---|
| First Round | 5 to 7 upsets Pick mostly favorites |
| Sweet 16 | Mostly the top 4 seeds 1, max 2, surprise teams |
| Final Four | 2 No.1 seeds 1 No.2 seed 1 dark horse |
This gives you stability and upside.
Common Bracket Mistakes
Avoid these:
- Picking your favorite school
- Choosing only underdogs
- Ignoring injuries
- Copying expert brackets
- Changing picks at the last minute
Remember, the emotion is the enemy of good brackets. And not only that, but the enemy of any type of betting.
Final Checklist Before Submitting
Before submitting the bracket, ask yourself:
- Do I have at least one No. 1 seed in the Final Four?
- Did I limit risky upsets?
- Is my champion realistic?
- Did I check injuries?
If yes, submit with confidence.
Final Thoughts
There is no perfect March Madness bracket. Anyone who enters this competition has to be aware of that.
But the best brackets are built on smart seed usage, basic research, controlled risk, and a strong champion pick.
Luck always plays a role, but preparation gives the best chance to win.
