Vegas Odds Best Bets NFL Week 7: Locks, Dogs, and Props
Buffalo’s 24-20 win in Kansas City last week was the thriller it was billed to be with the early favorite as Game of the Year. Obviously, the week 7 slate doesn’t have anywhere near that type of championship contender matchup, but there are still some lines that look a bit off. We’ve also got Christian McCaffrey on the move from Carolina to San Francisco so we’ll see if he makes his 49ers debut against those Chiefs.
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NFL Lock of the Week
Houston at Las Vegas (-7), Sunday 4:05 PM ET
It’s go time for the Raiders, who at 1-4 are already significantly behind the 4-2 Chiefs and 4-2 Chargers in the AFC West. Las Vegas might not be as bad as their record indicates though, as three of their losses came against division leaders Tennessee, Kansas City, and the Chargers on the road. Their other defeat came after having a 23-7 lead going into the 4th quarter to Arizona before ultimately losing on a 59-yard fumble recovery in OT.
The Texans are coming off a bye, which does help a team that will be playing their fourth of the last five games on the road.
Vegas Odds Hot Stat: Houston ranks 30th in total offense (291.2 ypg) and 31st in yards allowed 414.2 ypg
Vegas Odds Week 7 NFL Trap Game
N.Y. Giants at Jacksonville (-3), Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Is Sunday’s matchup between the 5-1 Giants and the 2-4 Jaguars such a trap that it’s not – a meta trap so to speak? The Jaguars look like such an obvious contrarian play at -3 because home field or not why are they a field goal favorite against the one-loss New York? The Giants weren’t supposed to win against the Packers as +8.5 underdogs in London (27-22 W) or last week at +5.5 against Baltimore (24-20 W) and now in a game, they should win they still catch a +3? It’s an interesting approach from the oddsmakers.
NFL Picks Against the Spread Week 7
Green Bay at Washington (+4.5), Sunday +4.5
The Packers have lost consecutive games to the Jets and Giants and barely survived New England prior to that 27-24 in OT. Washington turns to Taylor Heinicke at QB after Carson Wentz’s finger injury, but he’s been a spark in recent years including his 306-yard performance that almost fueled the upset over Tampa Bay in the 2020 playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is also struggling with a finger injury of his own – combined with the stuttering offense so far, Washington looks good to actually win the game, never mind just covering the spread.
Washington +4.5
Detroit at Dallas (-7), Sunday 1:00 PM ET
Dak Prescott returns to Dallas and he probably wanted to rush back to face this Lions defense giving up the most points in the league at 34.0 ppg. Normally you’d say Detroit has the offense to cover this number in a 38-34 type of loss, but they were shut out 29-0 by the Patriots in week 5 and need more than a bye to cure their woes.
Dallas -7
Cleveland (+6.5) at Baltimore, Sunday 1:00 PM ET
It takes some real stones to go back to the Browns here after their 38-15 home loss to New England last week as -2.5 favorites – but oddsmakers also know that. Prior to the loss to the Patriots, Cleveland had three defeats by a combined 6 points and the last three meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 points or less.
Vegas Odds Hot Stat: The Ravens rank 4th-last in the NFL for total pass yards on offense over the last three games
Browns +6.5
Bears at Patriots (-7.5), Monday 8:15 PM ET
Bill Belichick drew up a defense that shut out Jared Goff and Detroit 29-0 two weeks ago. The Patriots then schemed to hold Cleveland’s #1 rushing offense to 70 yards on 18 carries so forgive New England if they’re not worried about Chicago and their 170.2 ypg rushing coming to town Monday night. The Bears have one of the worst offensive line and wide receiver groups in the league so don’t be surprised if Chicago QB Justin Fields has a “I’m seeing ghosts out there” type of game in the NFL week 7 slate, especially with Halloween right around the corner.
Patriots -7.5
NFL Week 7 Best Prop Bets
Zay Jones Over 39.5 yards receiving, Jacksonville vs. N.Y. Giants
New York only gives up 119 reception yards total to WRs in a game which is 2nd fewest in the league, but Zay Jones is ready for a breakout. He had 11 targets in week 3 before suffering an ankle injury that kept him out of week 4. He’s got 13 targets in the last two games and gets healthier each week. The Giants look like a trap play at +3 despite being 5-1 which bodes well for Jags players.
Amari Cooper Over 53.5 yards receiving Cleveland at Baltimore
Just look at the Dolphins’ 28-point 4th quarter in week 2, and it’s obvious the Ravens will give up some yards through the air. When you combine that with the fact that Amari Cooper has 12+ targets each of the last two games and 10+ in 4 of the last 5, 53.5 yards seems incredibly low.
Rhamondre Stevenson over yards rushing, Chicago at New England
Sportsbooks aren’t releasing New England props as of Friday because a starting QB between Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones hasn’t been named for New England. It’s likely to be Jones, which gives Stevenson’s rushing yards ‘over’ more value as you don’t want to expose your QBs sore ankle to any unnecessary hits. Stevenson had 2 TDs last week, 161 yards in the win over Detroit, and faces a Bears defense giving up 163 ypg, This number should be a bit lower with Damien Harris expected to be back for the Patriots but Stevenson has taken over the featured back role.
Vegas Odds Hot Stat: Rhamondre Stevenson has taken 114 out of a possible 130 offensive snaps for the Patriots over the past two games
