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Kentucky Derby 2023 Pick, Odds, and Preview (May 6)

By · April 26, 2023
  • Churchill Downs hosts the prestigious opening leg of the Triple Crown
  • The ‘Run for the Roses’ will see the best three-year-olds in the United States tackle 1 ¼ miles for the first time

The long Road to the Kentucky Derby has finally drawn to its close, and the runners that will be competing in the prestigious opening leg of the Triple Crown have been determined. It will be the first time that this year’s Classic crop have competed over 1 ¼ miles, but which horse will join the likes of Secretariat, American Pharoah, and Barbaro on the illustrious list of previous winners?


Schedule and How To Watch

  • When: Saturday, May 6, 2023, at 6:45 p.m ET
  • Where: Churchill Downs, Kentucky   
  • Distance: 1 1/4 miles
  • Grade: Grade 1
  • Purse: $3 Million
  • How To Watch: NBC

Kentucky Derby 2023 Odds

HorseOdds
Forte+250
Tapit Trice+650
Practical Move+1000
Angel of Empire+1000
Derma Sotogake+1000
Verifying+1200
Kingsbarns+1200
Mage+2000
Two Phil’s+2500
Skinner+2800
Disarm+3300
Hit Show+3300
Confidence Game+3300
Continuar+3300
Other Selections+4000 and Bigger

Race Preview

The wait for the Kentucky Derby 2023 is finally over, as the final field has been determined. An important place to start would be the official Beyer speed figures recorded by the runners on their prep starts, as 89.6% of the runners since 1992 have hit a figure of at least 95.

The most solid of the contenders is found at the top of the betting, as Forte has been the standout star in the division to this point. While his run in the G1 Florida Derby only scored a figure of 95, visually, it showed his class as he came storming from a wide draw to overtake Mage in the final stages.

The Todd Pletcher runner’s highest recorded figure was the 100 achieved when landing the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. However, only two previous winners of that race have gone on to land Derby success.

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Practical Move finished second on the leaderboard, and reached speed figures of 100 when winning the G2 San Felipe and G1 Santa Anita Derby. However, he is a little on the short side in the betting for me. Tapit Trice won the G1 Blue Grass on his previous start to land an official rating of 99, but that prep is yet to return a Derby winner in over ten years.

Kingsbarns is the huge unknown, as the Pletcher runner stepped into graded company for the first time with a dominant win in the G2 Louisiana Derby. However, only Justify has won the Derby, having failed to make a start as a two-year-old.

Attention will also be on the Japanese raiders, with the strongest of those appearing to be Derma Sotogake. The three-year-old won in a deep G2 UAE Derby in the Middle East to land a starting spot, and his late speed shown that day could make for a fascinating contender.


Dark Horse Contender

A contender that I’ve been keen on at a price for the Kentucky Derby for a long time is Two Phil’s. Trained by Larry Rivelli, this three-year-old clocked the quickest speed rating of any contender when landing the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks (103). It is worth mentioning that the win came on the all-weather, just as Rich Strike prepared for his Derby success 12 months ago.

He has interesting form lines with Instant Coffee and Angel of Empire, finishing narrowly behind the latter over 1 1/8 miles in the G2 Risen Star. Two Phil’s already has previous winning experience at Churchill Downs, having landed the G3 Street Sense at the end of last year.


Kentucky Derby 2023 Picks

Forte could be a very special horse, and we think he will take all the beating at Churchill Downs this year. Angel of Empire and Derma Sotogake both look primed for big runs in the Kentucky Derby, and will be selections we use in singles and our exacta box. As an outsider, Two Phil’s could have the quality to play a big role.

Kentucky Derby Picks:

Alex Dudley
Contributor Alex has covered huge sporting events for various websites and publications. He has attended football European Championships, Rugby League and Union World Cups, and the Paralympics. Alex is dedicated to giving the most insightful tips for VegasOdds readers and specialises in horse racing, soccer, golf and basketball.

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