NFC South 2023-24 Win Total Odds, and Prediction

By · August 11, 2023
  • The Buccaneers won the NFC South last year, despite their 8-9 record.
  • There was a 3-way tie for last, with the other three teams going 7-10.
  • New Orleans is currently the favorite to win the division this season.

As the 2023-24 NFL season rapidly approaches, let’s evaluate the NFC South division, and project the final win totals of all four teams for this season. The division is wide open this year, and should end very close.

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New Orleans Saints

  • 2022 Record: 7-10
  • Odds to win NFC South: +130

Over/Under 9.5 Wins

Team Odds
Under -130
Over +100

The Saints finished with just 7 wins last season, missing the playoffs for the 2nd straight year. Over those two years, inconsistent quarterback play from Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, and Andy Dalton limited their ability to win games. QB Derek Carr was brought in to help provide the offense some consistency, but a 3-game suspension to RB Alvin Kamara isn’t going to help. I think the Saints win 8 or 9 games this season.


Atlanta Falcons

  • 2022 Record: 7-10
  • Odds to win NFC South: +210

Over/Under 8.5 Wins

Team Odds
Over -115
Under -115

The Falcons missed the playoffs for the 5th straight year. They’ve now won exactly 7 games for 4 of the past 5 years, with the outlier being a 4-12 season. Atlanta has acquired a lot of talent on offense in the past few drafts. If QB Desmond Ridder can perform at a high level with WR Drake London, TE Kyle Pitts, and RB Bijan Robinson around him, the Falcons could win this division. Even so, I’d put them at 8 wins.

ATLANTA, GA - NOVEMBER 06: Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts 8 runs up the sidleine during the 2nd half of Sunday afternoon NFL, American Football Herren, USA game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Los Angeles Chargers on November 6, 2022 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire NFL: NOV 06 Chargers at Falcons Icon9532211062267


Carolina Panthers

  • 2022 Record: 7-10
  • Odds to win NFC South: +360

Over/Under 7.5 Wins

Team Odds
Over -140
Under +110

The Panthers also missed the playoffs for their 5th straight season. Over the past four years, Carolina’s leading passers were Kyle Allen, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and Baker Mayfield. They’d had enough of that this year, trading up to select QB Bryce Young with the #1-overall pick in this year’s draft. With an already solid defense and WRs D.J. Chark and Adam Thielen to support Young, Carolina should hit 8 wins.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • 2022 Record: 8-9
  • Odds to win NFC South: +750

Over/Under 6.5 Wins

Team Odds
Under -125
Over -105

The Buccaneers won the NFC South last season, despite finishing with a subpar 8-9 record. With Tom Brady officially retired, and many of the veterans from their Super Bowl team having moved on, Tampa Bay is expected to enter a rebuild. Despite winning the division in 2022, they have the longest odds to win it in 2023. I see the Bucs winning just 5 games this season, with their focus on a stacked 2024 NFL Draft class.

January 1, 2023, Tampa, Florida, USA: Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Devin White 45 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. 31 celebrate after they make a defensive stop against the Carolina Panthers during the first quarter at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on Sunday, Jan. 1, 2023. Tampa USA - ZUMAs70_ 0197310926st Copyright: xJeffereexWoox


Keith McCarthy
Contributor Keith McCarthy is an experienced sports analyst with a passion for predicting the outcomes of games spanning across sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, with a special expertise in college sports.

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