Can Elon Musk Run for President? Why His 2028 Odds Are +25000

Can Elon Musk run for president? Under the Constitution as it stands, the answer is no, but that hasn’t stopped BetOnline from pricing him at +25000 to win the 2028 presidential election. That works out to an implied chance of about 0.4%, and once you look at the rules, his citizenship and his poll numbers, it’s easy to see why the price is so big.

There’s a second Musk market on the board too, and that one has a much more realistic path: Musk is +1200 to be appointed to a Cabinet position. Here’s everything behind both prices.

Elon Musk Odds

Market	Odds	Implied chance
To win the 2028 presidential election	+25000	0.4%
To be appointed to a Cabinet position	+1200	7.7%

Odds from BetOnline as of November 10, 2026.

Can Elon Musk Run for President?

Article II of the Constitution sets three requirements to be president. You must be a natural born citizen, at least 35 years old, and a US resident for at least 14 years.

Requirement	Does Musk meet it?
Natural born citizen	No
At least 35 years old	Yes (he’s 55)
14 years as a US resident	Yes

Musk clears two of the three easily, but the first one is the problem. A natural born citizen is generally understood to mean someone who was a US citizen at birth, and Musk wasn’t. That single line in the Constitution is the main reason his 2028 odds are +25000.

Is Elon Musk a US Citizen?

Yes. Musk became a naturalized US citizen in 2002, but he wasn’t born one, and that’s the distinction that matters.

Where Was Elon Musk Born?

Musk was born in Pretoria, South Africa, on June 28, 1971. He moved to Canada in 1989, where he holds citizenship through his Canadian-born mother, and later moved to the US, where he became a citizen in 2002. A naturalized citizen can serve in Congress, run a government department or advise a president, but not become president.

Could the Rules Change?

Only with a constitutional amendment, and that’s a very high bar. An amendment needs a two-thirds vote in both the House and the Senate, and then has to be ratified by three-quarters of the states, which is 38 of 50. Proposals to open the presidency to naturalized citizens have come up before, and none has come close to passing.

That’s why +25000 is less about Musk’s popularity and more about the rulebook. For this bet to win, the Constitution would need to change, he would need to run, and he would need to win, all by November 2028.

Elon Musk Approval Rating

Even if the rules changed tomorrow, the polls would make it a tough sell. Musk’s favorability has been underwater since early 2025.

• Decision Desk HQ average (as of Nov 6, 2026): 38.4% favorable, 51.3% unfavorable, a net rating of -12.9.
• YouGov/The Economist (Nov 4 to 6, 2026): 15 points more unfavorable than favorable among registered voters.
• Verasight (April 2026): 34% favorable, 47% unfavorable.

These numbers can move quickly, and so can the betting. One post on X can make headlines for a week, but a deficit like this takes a lot more than one news cycle to turn around.

What About the America Party?

Musk announced his own political party, the America Party, in July 2025, after his public split with President Trump. A party can back candidates and spend money in elections, but it can’t make its founder eligible to be president. Any route to the White House for Musk still runs through a constitutional amendment.

The More Realistic Bet: Musk in the Cabinet (+1200)

If you want a Musk market that could actually land, this is it. Musk has already worked inside the government, leading the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) as a special government employee in 2025, before stepping away and falling out publicly with Trump. Relations between the two have warmed at times since, which is why a return isn’t out of the question.

There’s no citizenship issue here. Naturalized citizens can serve in the Cabinet, though Cabinet secretaries need Senate confirmation. BetOnline’s rules say the bet wins if Musk is appointed to any Cabinet position during Trump’s second administration, which runs until the 2028 election winner is inaugurated in January 2029.

His DOGE role in 2025 wasn’t a Cabinet position, so it doesn’t count. At +1200, a $10 bet would return $130, and the market gives it around a 7.7% chance. That’s still a long shot, but it’s a long shot with a real path, unlike the presidency.

Who’s Really in the Running for 2028?

If you want to bet on the people who can actually win in 2028, see our full 2028 presidential election odds, and our election betting guide for how political markets work.

How to Bet on Elon Musk Specials

BetOnline has some of the deepest political specials around, from the 2028 election to novelty markets like these Musk bets. Sign up, make your first deposit to claim the welcome offer, then head to the politics section to find the Elon Musk markets.

One thing to know: political specials can be suspended or pulled when news breaks, and bets placed after a result becomes public knowledge are graded as no action. If you like a price, it pays to get in early.