2028 Presidential Election Odds: Who Is Favored to Win in 2028?
Election favorite: Jon Ossoff (+350)
Democratic nominee favorite: Jon Ossoff (+250)
Republican nominee favorite: J.D. Vance (+190)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineThe 2026 midterms are done, and the race for 2028 has started in the betting markets. Two days after Election Night, the 2028 presidential election odds look very different from a year ago. Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff has moved to the top of the board at +350, ahead of Vice President J.D. Vance at +500.
This page tracks the latest 2028 odds from BetOnline for the overall winner and for both party nominations. It also covers what’s behind each contender’s price, and what history says about how much odds this early really mean. We update it regularly as the field takes shape.
Odds from BetOnline as of November 5, 2026.
2028 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | +350 | 22.2% |
| J.D. Vance | +500 | 16.7% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +700 | 12.5% |
| Gavin Newsom | +850 | 10.5% |
| Marco Rubio | +850 | 10.5% |
| Ron DeSantis | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Kamala Harris | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Josh Shapiro | +2200 | 4.3% |
| James Talarico | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Pete Buttigieg | +3000 | 3.2% |
| Mark Kelly | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Thomas Massie | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Tucker Carlson | +4500 | 2.2% |
| Andy Beshear | +4500 | 2.2% |
| Michelle Obama | +6000 | 1.6% |
| Wes Moore | +6000 | 1.6% |
| J.B. Pritzker | +6000 | 1.6% |
| Ro Khanna | +6000 | 1.6% |
| Donald Trump | +6500 | 1.5% |
| Raphael Warnock | +7000 | 1.4% |
| Roy Cooper | +7000 | 1.4% |
| Ted Cruz | +7000 | 1.4% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +8000 | 1.2% |
| Rahm Emanuel | +8000 | 1.2% |
| Glenn Youngkin | +9000 | 1.1% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | +10000 | 1.0% |
| Nikki Haley | +10000 | 1.0% |
| Doug Burgum | +11000 | 0.9% |
Also available at +12500: Ivanka Trump, Tom Cotton, Elizabeth Warren, Dwayne Johnson, Jon Stewart, Cory Booker, Katie Britt and Barack Obama.
Implied probability shows the chance the odds suggest, before the sportsbook’s margin. That’s why the column adds up to more than 100%.
What the 2028 Election Odds Are Telling Us
The biggest shift is between the parties. Before the midterms, Vance led the board as the clear Republican heir. After a strong night for Democrats, who won control of both the Senate and the House and flipped Senate seats in states including Texas, Ohio, North Carolina, and Maine, the market now has four Democrats among its top five names.
There’s a quirk worth spotting. Vance is a much shorter price to win the Republican nomination (+190) than Ossoff is to win the Democratic one (+250). Even so, Ossoff is the favorite for the White House. That tells you the market currently rates the eventual Democratic nominee as more likely to win the general election, rather than rating Ossoff above Vance head-to-head.
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | +250 |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +375 |
| Gavin Newsom | +500 |
| Josh Shapiro | +1000 |
| Kamala Harris | +1100 |
Jon Ossoff is the new favorite after winning re-election in Georgia by about 18 points, even though he says he isn’t running. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Gavin Newsom come next, and Josh Shapiro has shortened after a big win in Pennsylvania. For every contender, the identity specials and how the nomination works, see our full 2028 Democratic nominee odds.
2028 Republican Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | +190 | 34.5% |
| Marco Rubio | +350 | 22.2% |
| Ron DeSantis | +400 | 20.0% |
| Tucker Carlson | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Donald Trump | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Donald Trump Jr. | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Thomas Massie | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Ted Cruz | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Tom Cotton | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Glenn Youngkin | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Nikki Haley | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Doug Burgum | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Ivanka Trump | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Katie Britt | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Brian Kemp | +6000 | 1.6% |
| Tim Scott | +6000 | 1.6% |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +6500 | 1.5% |
| Josh Hawley | +6500 | 1.5% |
| Erika Kirk | +6500 | 1.5% |
| Pete Hegseth | +7500 | 1.3% |
Longer shots include Tulsi Gabbard, Lara Trump, Eric Trump and Jamie Dimon (+8000), Rand Paul (+9000), Vivek Ramaswamy and Joe Rogan (+20000) and Elon Musk (+30000).
The Republican market is more top-heavy, with Vance, Rubio, and DeSantis making up more than three-quarters of the implied chance between them.
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Bet on the 2028 Election at BetOnlineThe Leading 2028 Contenders
Jon Ossoff 2028 Odds (+350)
Ossoff’s rise is the story of the midterms. He won re-election in Georgia by 18 points, 59% to 41%, in a state Donald Trump carried in 2024, and that result sent his price tumbling. He has publicly said he has “zero interest” in running for president. Early denials like that are common in politics, though, and the market is clearly pricing in the chance that he changes his mind.
J.D. Vance 2028 Odds (+500)
As sitting vice president, Vance leads early Republican primary polling at around 39% and is the clear favorite for the nomination at +190. He has said there’s “a chance” he won’t run, citing his family. History is a real hurdle, though. Only four sitting vice presidents have won the presidency, and George H.W. Bush in 1988 was the only one in the last 180 years. A tough midterm for his party has also lengthened his general election price.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2028 Odds (+700)
AOC is second favorite for the Democratic nomination at +375. She campaigned for candidates across several swing states this fall, and the strong Democratic turnout among younger voters fits the case for a new generation of leadership. She hasn’t declared. Only one sitting House member, James Garfield in 1880, has gone straight to the White House, so her path would be historically unusual.
Gavin Newsom 2028 Odds (+850)
California’s governor is term-limited and leaves office in January 2027, so he’ll be free to campaign full-time. He spent the fall campaigning in early primary states, including New Hampshire and South Carolina, and polls in double figures among Democrats. He hasn’t declared.
Marco Rubio 2028 Odds (+850)
Rubio is second in the Republican nominee market at +350, and polls second among Republican voters at around 26%. His role as Secretary of State gives him a national profile away from the midterm results. The question for bettors is whether foreign policy experience translates into primary votes, which it rarely has in recent cycles.
Ron DeSantis 2028 Odds (+1200)
Florida’s governor is also term-limited, leaving office in January 2027. He’s third in the Republican nominee market at +400, but polls in single digits. To win, he’d need to persuade primary voters who chose someone else in 2024.
Kamala Harris 2028 Odds (+2000)
Harris leads some early Democratic polling averages, but the betting market is far more skeptical, at +1100 for the nomination. She has said she goes “back and forth” on running again. That gap between the polls and the odds is one of the most interesting in the market, because it largely reflects how well her name is known early on.
Josh Shapiro 2028 Odds (+2200)
Pennsylvania’s governor won a second term this week with 60% of the vote in a key battleground state, and he has launched a new federal political action committee. He hasn’t declared, but at +1000 for the nomination, he’s one of the names likeliest to shorten in the betting if he moves toward a run.
James Talarico 2028 Odds (+2800)
Talarico pulled off one of the biggest results of the midterms, beating Ken Paxton to win a U.S. Senate seat in Texas and ending a three-decade run without a Democrat winning statewide office there. He’ll be a brand-new senator in January 2027, so a 2028 run would be a very fast rise. Only three sitting senators have gone straight to the presidency: Warren Harding, John F. Kennedy and Barack Obama.
Longer Shots to Watch
- Pete Buttigieg (+3000): polls in double figures among Democrats and ran a closing tour across several swing states.
- Andy Beshear (+4500): Kentucky’s governor, whose case rests on winning repeatedly in a strongly Republican state.
- Thomas Massie (+4000): lost his Kentucky House primary in May, then filed paperwork for a 2028 run, without saying which office.
- Tucker Carlson (+4500): has never held office, but is priced as a Republican outsider at +2200 for the nomination.
Can Trump Run for a Third Term in 2028?
No, not under the Constitution as it stands. The 22nd Amendment says no person can be elected president more than twice, and Trump won the 2016 and 2024 elections. The same rule applies to Barack Obama, who was elected in 2008 and 2012. Both still appear in the betting at long odds, +6500 and +12500 respectively, which reflects the sportsbook offering novelty prices rather than any realistic path.
Changing the 22nd Amendment would take a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress and ratification by three-quarters of the states. No such change is underway, and after the midterms, both chambers of Congress are under Democratic control. Elon Musk, at +30000 in the Republican market, faces a different barrier: the Constitution requires the president to be a natural-born citizen, and Musk was born in South Africa.
How Much Do Early Election Odds Really Mean?
Odds two years out are a snapshot of the moment, not a forecast, and history shows the early favorite often doesn’t make it.
- Early favorites can fade. Hillary Clinton was the clear Democratic favorite two years before the 2008 election, and lost the nomination to a first-term senator, Barack Obama. Jeb Bush was among the Republican favorites heading into 2016, and Donald Trump won the nomination.
- Midterm waves don’t decide the next election. Republicans won big in the 2010 midterms, and Obama was re-elected in 2012. Democrats won the House in 2018, and the next presidential election was much closer than that wave suggested.
- Statements of intent change. Candidates routinely deny interest until they’re ready to announce. That’s why the odds can move sharply on a single interview or a trip to Iowa or New Hampshire.
That’s what makes this market interesting to bet early. Prices on contenders who haven’t declared can shorten dramatically once they do, while a favorite who decides not to run is a losing ticket.
When Is the 2028 Presidential Election?
The 2028 presidential election is on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. The primaries and caucuses begin in early 2028, with each party’s nominee confirmed at its national convention that summer. Most serious candidates are expected to announce during 2027.
How to Bet on the 2028 Presidential Election
State-licensed US sportsbooks don’t take bets on elections, so you won’t find the 2028 race at the big domestic apps. Offshore sportsbooks like BetOnline do offer political betting, with fixed odds on the overall winner, both party nominations, and a range of specials, and they accept players from most US states.
To get started, choose a sportsbook from the list below, create an account, and make your first deposit to claim the welcome bonus. Then find the Politics section in the sports menu, where the 2028 markets are listed under US Election. Pick your market, choose your candidate, enter your stake, and confirm your bet.
Election futures tie your money up for a long time, so it’s worth shopping around. Prices on the same candidate can vary a lot between books this far out.
New to political betting? See our full guide on how to bet on politics.
Where to Bet on the 2028 Election
Our odds on this page come from BetOnline, but all of these sportsbooks accept US players and offer 2028 presidential election odds, plus a welcome bonus for new players.
