Will Trump Be Impeached? Trump Impeachment Odds and Specials
To be impeached: Yes (-400)
To complete a full term: Yes (-180)
To be on the 2028 ballot: No (-5000)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineDemocrats will take control of the House in January, and the betting markets have reacted fast. So, will Trump be impeached? BetOnline now has him at -400 to be impeached, which implies an 80% chance he becomes the first president impeached three times.
This page tracks every Trump market at BetOnline: impeachment, whether he finishes his term, when he leaves office, the 2028 ballot, and the novelty specials. For each one, we cover the rules, the history, and what the odds are actually telling you. We update it as the news moves the prices.
Odds from BetOnline as of November 5, 2026.
Trump Impeachment Odds
| Market | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Trump to be impeached: Yes | -400 | 80.0% |
| Trump to be impeached: No | +250 | 28.6% |
Will Trump Be Impeached Again?
The market says it’s likely, and the reason is simple arithmetic. Impeachment only needs a simple majority in the House, and after the midterms, Democrats hold well over the 218 seats required. The new Congress is sworn in on January 3, 2027.
That doesn’t mean it’s certain. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries has said, “We haven’t ruled anything in, and we haven’t ruled anything out,” and has pointed to affordability as the party’s focus. On the Republican side, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise said he expects an impeachment push on “day one”, and Senator Ted Cruz has said he believes the House will impeach. Trump himself has said Democrats would “find something” to impeach him over.
Other markets moved the same way on election night. Polymarket’s odds of impeachment by the end of 2027 jumped from around 20% to 49%, and Kalshi’s market on a House impeachment before July 2027 rose from about 44% to 65%. BetOnline’s market runs much longer, all the way to the next inauguration in January 2029. That extra time is a big part of why its price of -400 is the shortest of the three.
Impeachment Is Not Removal
This is the most important point for bettors. Impeachment is the House bringing charges. Removal needs a conviction in the Senate by a two-thirds vote, which means 67 senators. Even after their midterm gains, Democrats will have nowhere near 67 seats, so conviction would need a large number of Republican votes.
The precedent is clear. Trump was impeached in 2019 (230-197 on the first article) and acquitted 52-48 in the Senate in February 2020. He was impeached again in January 2021 (232-197, with 10 Republicans voting yes), and 57 senators voted to convict, 10 short of the 67 needed. No president in US history has been removed from office through impeachment.
BetOnline’s market settles on the House vote alone. Trump only needs to be impeached by the House of Representatives before the 2028 election winner is inaugurated on January 20, 2029. What happens in the Senate afterwards makes no difference to the bet.
Will Trump Finish His Term? Odds
| Market | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| To complete a full term: Yes | -180 | 64.3% |
| To complete a full term: No | +140 | 41.7% |
Trump’s term ends on January 20, 2029. The market gives him roughly a 64% chance of serving all of it. That’s notably lower than the impeachment odds might suggest it should be, given how hard it is to remove a president. The price reflects every way a term can end early, not just impeachment, including resignation, health or the 25th Amendment.
History leans toward presidents finishing. Only one president, Richard Nixon in 1974, has resigned, and Section 4 of the 25th Amendment, which lets the vice president and Cabinet declare a president unable to serve, has never been used to remove one.
Trump Exit Date Odds
| Year Trump leaves office | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2029 or later | -180 | 64.3% |
| 2027 | +250 | 28.6% |
| 2028 | +600 | 14.3% |
| 2026 | +1500 | 6.3% |
This market lines up with the full-term market: “2029 or later” and “Yes, completes a full term” are both -180, and they mean the same thing. The interesting price is 2027 at +250. If you think impeachment could lead to a genuine push for removal next year, that’s where the value would be. If you think the Senate makes removal near impossible, the 2029 side is the one to look at.
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Bet on Trump Specials at BetOnlineWill Trump Run in 2028? Ballot Odds
| Market | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| To be on the 2028 presidential election ballot | +1200 | -5000 |
| To be on the 2028 Iowa GOP caucus ballot | +1200 | -5000 |
At -5000, the market is close to certain that Trump won’t be on the ballot, and the Constitution is the reason. The 22nd Amendment says no one can be elected president more than twice, and Trump won in 2016 and 2024. Asked about a third term this year, Trump said, “I’d love to run, but the law is very strong.”
The +1200 on “Yes” is essentially a bet on the rules changing. Amending the Constitution would take two-thirds of both houses of Congress and three-quarters of the states, and no such amendment is underway. For the full race, including every contender’s price, see our 2028 presidential election odds.
Trump Specials and Novelty Odds
Next State to Join the US During Trump’s Presidency
| State | Odds |
|---|---|
| Greenland | +250 |
| Puerto Rico | +250 |
| Venezuela | +350 |
| US Virgin Islands | +700 |
| Guam | +800 |
| Canada | +1000 |
| District of Columbia | +1000 |
| Israel | +1600 |
| Mexico | +2500 |
| Ukraine | +3300 |
| Ireland | +5000 |
| Mar-a-Lago | +6500 |
| Gaza | +8000 |
| United Kingdom | +10000 |
| Australia | +10000 |
Only Congress can admit a new state, so this market needs an act of Congress before January 2029. That’s a high bar, especially with Democrats about to control both chambers. Greenland is a joint favorite after Trump’s repeated calls for the US to take control of it, but it’s a self-governing territory of Denmark, and Greenland’s government has rejected a US takeover outright. Puerto Rico, the other joint favorite, is already a US territory, and statehood has won several non-binding referendums there, but Congress has never voted to admit it.
Hypothetical 2028 Match Bets
| Match | Odds |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump vs Bill Clinton | Trump -200, Clinton +160 |
| Donald Trump vs Barack Obama | Obama -200, Trump +160 |
| Trump vs Obama in 2028 to happen: Yes | +2000 |
These are fun markets rather than real ones. Trump, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have each been elected president twice, so the 22nd Amendment rules all three out of 2028. The hypotheticals are really a popularity contest, and BetOnline makes Obama the favorite against Trump, and Trump the favorite against Clinton.
BetOnline also has a full set of Natalie Harp specials, from a Melania mention to a Cabinet job. See our Natalie Harp odds.
How to Bet on Trump Odds
State-licensed US sportsbooks don’t offer political betting, so you won’t find Trump markets at the big domestic apps. Offshore sportsbooks like BetOnline do, with a full Trump Specials section covering impeachment, his exit date, the 2028 ballot and novelty props.
To get started, choose a sportsbook from the list below, create an account and make your first deposit to claim the welcome bonus. Then go to the Politics section in the sports menu, where you’ll find Trump Specials under US Election. Pick your market, enter your stake, and confirm your bet.
Political specials can move quickly on a single news story, and many settle months or even years from now, so check each market’s rules and settlement date before betting.
Where to Bet on Trump Odds
Our odds on this page come from BetOnline, but all of these sportsbooks accept US players and offer political betting markets, plus a welcome bonus for new players.
