2028 Democratic Nominee Odds: Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee?
Favorite: Jon Ossoff (+250)
Value pick: Josh Shapiro (+1000)
Best special: Nominee to be a man (-225)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineThe midterms are over, and the 2028 Democratic nominee odds have been rewritten overnight. Jon Ossoff is the new favorite at BetOnline at +250 after a comfortable re-election win in Georgia, even though he says he isn’t running. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is next at +375, and Gavin Newsom has drifted to +500.
This page covers the full Democratic nominee market, a breakdown of every serious contender, and the nominee specials, where some of the prices don’t quite add up. We update it as the field takes shape.
Odds from BetOnline as of November 5, 2026.
2028 Democratic Nominee Odds
| Candidate | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Ossoff | +250 | 28.6% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | +375 | 21.1% |
| Gavin Newsom | +500 | 16.7% |
| Josh Shapiro | +1000 | 9.1% |
| Kamala Harris | +1100 | 8.3% |
| James Talarico | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Pete Buttigieg | +2200 | 4.3% |
| Mark Kelly | +2500 | 3.8% |
| Andy Beshear | +2800 | 3.4% |
| Wes Moore | +3300 | 2.9% |
| J.B. Pritzker | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Ro Khanna | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Michelle Obama | +3500 | 2.8% |
| Rahm Emanuel | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Gretchen Whitmer | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Raphael Warnock | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Roy Cooper | +5000 | 2.0% |
| Cory Booker | +7500 | 1.3% |
| Elizabeth Warren | +8000 | 1.2% |
| Chris Murphy | +8000 | 1.2% |
Implied probability shows the chance the odds suggest, before the sportsbook’s margin. That’s why the full board adds up to more than 100%. BetOnline’s full list runs to 40 names, and the rest are covered further down.
What the Midterms Changed
Before election night, this market had Newsom in front. Three results moved it.
Ossoff won his Georgia Senate race against Republican Mike Collins by about 18 points in early results, in a state Trump carried in 2024. Josh Shapiro won a second term as governor of Pennsylvania by about 22 points. James Talarico flipped a Texas Senate seat by beating Ken Paxton, and he’s the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Texas since 1988.
All three of them won in places Democrats need in a presidential race. The betting market has rewarded that.
The Leading Contenders
Jon Ossoff 2028 Odds: +250
Ossoff is the favorite, and he says he doesn’t want the job. He has said he isn’t running for the White House in 2028 and has “zero interest” in a presidential run. The market is betting that he changes his mind.
There’s precedent for that. In January 2006, a first-term senator named Barack Obama said he wouldn’t run in 2008, and he was in the race a year later. Ossoff turns 40 in February, starts his second Senate term in January, and has just won a swing state convincingly.
The risk is simple: +250 is a short price on someone who is publicly saying no. If he means it, this bet is dead before the first primary.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2028 Odds: +375
AOC has a different decision to make. Reporting through the summer and fall has framed her choice as a run for president or a run for Chuck Schumer’s New York Senate seat, which is also up in 2028. She has kept both options open and spent the closing weeks campaigning for candidates in Maine, Michigan, Nevada and California.
She polled at 11.8% in the RealClearPolling average of the Democratic field through November 1, and she has the strongest small-donor base in the party. She would be 39 on Inauguration Day, comfortably over the constitutional minimum of 35. If she picks the Senate race, this price disappears.
Gavin Newsom 2028 Odds: +500
Newsom was the favorite for most of the past year. His drift to +500 says more about one comment than about anything he’s done. In September he told CNN that he wouldn’t run if Kamala Harris did: “I wouldn’t run if she ran. I wouldn’t do that to her. I wouldn’t do it to me.”
That makes his price partly a bet on Harris staying out. His term as California governor ends in January, and he said he would give a run serious thought once the midterms were done. That moment has arrived, so expect this price to move quickly either way.
Josh Shapiro 2028 Odds: +1000
Shapiro has just won re-election by about 22 points in the most important swing state in the country, and he has launched a new federal political action committee. He was also a finalist to be Harris’s running mate in 2024.
He polled at 5.5% in the national average, so the big win hasn’t yet shown up in primary polling. That gap is why he’s our value pick at +1000. A governor who wins Pennsylvania by 20 points is exactly the kind of candidate a nominating contest tends to warm to.
Kamala Harris 2028 Odds: +1100
The betting and the polling disagree most sharply here. Harris led the national Democratic primary average at 24.2% through November 1, ahead of everyone else, yet BetOnline has her at +1100, an implied 8.3%.
The market is pricing in two things: the 2024 defeat, and her own uncertainty. She has said she goes “back and forth” on running. Because of the Newsom comment, her decision matters twice. If she runs, his chances fall. If she doesn’t, his price should shorten.
James Talarico 2028 Odds: +2000
Talarico is the newest name on the board and the one with the most momentum. He’s a 37-year-old former teacher and seminarian who beat Jasmine Crockett in the primary and then Ken Paxton in November.
Running for president two years into a first Senate term is a big ask, but Obama did exactly that. At +2000, the price assumes he stays in the Senate for now.
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Bet on the Democratic Nominee at BetOnlinePete Buttigieg 2028 Odds: +2200
The former Transportation Secretary passed on a Michigan Senate run to keep his options open, and he ended the midterms with a seven-state closing tour. He polled at 13.1% nationally, third in the field, so +2200 looks long on the polling alone. The market’s doubt is about the early states: his support has been strongest with college-educated voters, and the new calendar starts in South Carolina.
Mark Kelly 2028 Odds: +2500
The Arizona senator is a former Navy combat pilot and NASA astronaut, and he was the other finalist alongside Shapiro for Harris’s running mate in 2024. He gives Democrats a border-state senator with a military background, and that keeps him in the conversation at +2500.
Andy Beshear 2028 Odds: +2800
Beshear has won twice as governor of Kentucky, a state Trump carried by more than 30 points in 2024. He leaves office in December 2027, which lines up neatly with a primary run. He campaigned in Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Nevada, Ohio and Wisconsin in the closing stretch, and that’s the travel schedule of someone preparing a run. He polls at around 4%, so he needs a breakout moment.
Longshots and Celebrity Names
Wes Moore, J.B. Pritzker and Ro Khanna are grouped at +3300. Behind them, BetOnline lists:
| Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barack Obama | +10000 |
| Dwayne Johnson | +12500 |
| Mark Cuban | +12500 |
| Ruben Gallego | +15000 |
| Gina Raimondo | +20000 |
| Beto O’Rourke | +20000 |
| Stephen A. Smith | +20000 |
| Hillary Clinton | +25000 |
| Amy Klobuchar | +25000 |
| Hakeem Jeffries | +25000 |
| Phil Murphy | +50000 |
| George Clooney | +50000 |
| Tim Walz | +50000 |
| Andrew Cuomo | +50000 |
| Dean Phillips | +50000 |
| John Fetterman | +100000 |
| Taylor Swift | +100000 |
| Oprah Winfrey | +100000 |
| Beyonce | +100000 |
| Bill Clinton | +100000 |
Two of these are worth a note. Michelle Obama, at +3500, has said repeatedly that she won’t run, so that price is more about name recognition than about any sign she will. Barack and Bill Clinton are on the board at all only for fun: the 22nd Amendment bars anyone elected president twice from being elected again, so neither can be the nominee in any real sense.
Democratic Nominee Specials
BetOnline also prices the nominee’s identity. You can check these against the main market. Add up the outright prices for every candidate who fits a special, adjust for the margin, and you get a fair price to compare with the special.
| Special | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Nominee: Man or Woman? | Man -225 | Woman +160 |
| Nominee to be Jewish? | +215 | -325 |
| Nominee to be Gay? | +1500 | -6000 |
| Nominee to be Transgender? | +10000 | n/a |
Democratic Nominee: Man or Woman?
Man is -225, an implied 69.2%. When you add up every woman on the outright board (AOC, Harris, Michelle Obama, Whitmer and the rest) and strip out the margin, the main market makes a woman nominee only about a 27% chance, which puts a man at about 73%. The two markets disagree. If you trust the outright board, Man at -225 is the better-priced side, which is why it’s our best special.
Democratic Nominee to be Jewish?
Yes at +215 implies 31.7%. Ossoff, Shapiro, J.B. Pritzker, Rahm Emanuel and Dean Phillips are all Jewish, and together they come to about 33% on the outright board once the margin is removed. This special is priced almost exactly in line with the main market. The swing factor is Ossoff: most of that 33% is him, so this bet rises or falls on whether he runs.
Democratic Nominee to be Gay?
Yes at +1500 implies 6.2%. Pete Buttigieg is the only openly gay name on the board, and his +2200 works out to about 3.3% after the margin. So this special is priced at roughly double Buttigieg’s chances. Part of the gap is room for names not on the board, such as Colorado Governor Jared Polis, who is also openly gay. Even so, Yes is the short side of the deal here.
Democratic Nominee to be Transgender?
There’s no transgender candidate among the 40 names on BetOnline’s board, which is why this special sits at +10000, the longest price on the specials list.
How the 2028 Democratic Nomination Works
The nominee is chosen through state primaries and caucuses that start in early 2028, and the party confirms the winner at the Democratic National Convention that summer. In August 2026, the DNC approved a new early calendar that puts South Carolina first and drops Iowa from the early window.
That matters for betting. South Carolina’s Democratic primary electorate is majority Black, and candidates who do well with Black voters have a head start. Biden’s 2020 nomination turned on his South Carolina win.
History also says not to take a favorite this far out as a sure thing. Three years before the 2008 race, Hillary Clinton was the clear favorite for the nomination, and a first-term senator beat her. For the race for the White House itself, see our 2028 presidential election odds.
How to Bet on the 2028 Democratic Nominee
State-licensed sportsbooks in the US don’t take bets on elections, so you won’t find this market on the big domestic apps. Offshore sportsbooks like BetOnline carry the full Democratic nominee board and the identity specials.
Choose one of the sportsbooks below, create an account, and make a first deposit to claim the welcome bonus. Then open Politics in the sports menu, select US Election, and you’ll find the Democratic Nominee market and specials there. Choose your selection, enter your stake, and confirm.
A long-term futures bet like this ties up your stake for close to two years. These markets usually settle once the party officially names its nominee at the convention, so check the rules for each market before you bet.
New to political betting? See our full guide on how to bet on politics.
Where to Bet on the 2028 Democratic Nominee
Our odds on this page come from BetOnline, but all of these sportsbooks accept US players and offer political betting markets, plus a welcome bonus for new players.
