Expert prediction
Keith Thurman vs Vergil Ortiz Jr Odds, Preview, and Picks
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Best bet: Vergil Ortiz Jr to win (-2000)
Also like: Ortiz Jr by KO/TKO (odds to come)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineKeith Thurman is back in the ring for the first time since Sebastian Fundora stopped him in March, and he’s taking on one of the most dangerous punchers in boxing. Thurman faces unbeaten Vergil Ortiz Jr. at Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona, in a 12-round middleweight fight on December 5.
Thurman is a huge +1000 underdog for the co-main event, on a card headlined by David Benavidez vs Michał Cieślak. You can find our Benavidez vs Cieślak picks here, along with the latest Thurman vs Ortiz Jr odds, the tale of the tape and our picks below
Saturday, Dec 5 · Ringwalks around 10:00 PM ET · Desert Diamond Arena, Arizona · DAZN
Keith Thurman vs Vergil Ortiz Jr Odds
| Fight Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Keith Thurman | +1000 |
| Vergil Ortiz Jr | -2000 |
Odds from BetOnline as of Nov 4. Method of victory, round betting and go the distance props have not been posted yet. We’ll update this page when they are.
Keith Thurman vs Vergil Ortiz Jr: Tale of the Tape
| Keith Thurman | Information | Vergil Ortiz Jr |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Age | 28 |
| 31-2 (1 NC) | Boxing Record | 24-0 |
| 23 | KO’s | 22 |
| 5 ft 8½ in | Height | 5 ft 10 in |
| 69 in | Reach | 70 in |
| Orthodox | Stance | Orthodox |
Thurman vs Ortiz Jr Prediction and Picks
This is a big ask for Thurman. At his best, “One Time” was one of the top welterweights in the world, unifying the WBA and WBC titles when he beat Danny Garcia in 2017. But he hasn’t looked like that fighter for a long time, and the betting tells you the market agrees.
Since losing a split decision to Manny Pacquiao in 2019, Thurman has barely been active. He beat Mario Barrios in 2022 and Brock Jarvis in 2025, then stepped up to face Fundora for the WBC super welterweight title in March and was stopped in the sixth round. It was the first stoppage loss of his career, and now, at 37, he’s moving up again to middleweight.
Ortiz Jr is heading in the opposite direction. The 28-year-old Texan is 24-0 with 22 knockouts, and he’s held the WBC interim super welterweight title since beating Serhii Bohachuk in August 2024. He’s proven he can win a hard fight on the scorecards, with decision wins over Bohachuk and Israil Madrimov. But the power is what makes him special, and he showed it again in his last fight, stopping Erickson Lubin in the second round in November 2025.
Ortiz is younger, bigger and the far heavier puncher, and Thurman was stopped the last time he fought at 154, and now he’s moving up to face the bigger man at 160. We think Ortiz Jr wins this, and there’s a good chance he does it inside the distance.
How We’re Betting Thurman vs Ortiz Jr
At -2000, Ortiz Jr is our best bet on the odds available right now. But you’d have to stake $2,000 to win $100, so it’s not a price we’d bet on its own. It works much better as a leg in a fight night parlay.
The better value is likely to be in the props once they’re posted. Ortiz by KO/TKO, a round group bet or the fight not going the distance should all pay far more than the moneyline for the outcome we expect. We’ll update this page with those prices and our final pick as soon as BetOnline posts them.
- Best bet: Vergil Ortiz Jr to win (-2000)
- Also like: Vergil Ortiz Jr to win by KO/TKO (odds to come)
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