NFL Week 9 Upsets: Commanders Nasty Underdogs, Cardinals and Raiders Defending the Spread

Week 9 of the 2026 NFL season features several situational spots where short underdogs hold tactical, scheduling, or matchup advantages. There aren’t as many choices as in previous rounds, but there’s still enough for us bettors to make some money.

Here is one straight-up upset pick and two point-spread underdog picks, backed by key tactical angles and current consensus odds. And if you want only the NFL Week 9 ATS Picks, they are available as well.

Top NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks

Rams vs. Commanders – Commanders +200

Davante Adams is out, and everyone knows that. But CB Trent McDuffie didn’t participate in Wednesday’s practice, and QB Matt Stafford has right elbow soreness. Plus, CB Jaylen Watson is out for the season.

Sure, the Commanders have plenty of injuries, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But overall, in these circumstances, where the Rams lost a few very important and consistent pieces of their machinery, it’s easier for the Commanders to adjust to all the unexpected absences than for the LA team.

The game is played in DC, so the Commanders also have a home-field advantage. Unlike at SoFi Stadium, where there is protection from the wind and the turf isn’t natural grass, playing conditions in Washington are different. So why not take a straight-up Commanders win here.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks – Cardinals +8.5

Arizona has Gardner Minshew as the signal caller now. He’s less scouted than Jacoby Brissett, and he has a much riskier mentality than his QB teammate. But that’s not why we think this is a good underdog pick. The fact that the Cardinals play much better these days, and that Sam Darnold won’t play because of his quad injury, is why more and more people see value in this ATS pick.

Furthermore, the opening line was set at 11.5, and now it dropped to 8.5. We already wrote in our Cards vs. Seahawks preview that Arizona has the potential to defend the spread due to a lack of pressure and their “all-in” mentality on the offensive side, where they take plenty of risks.

Raiders vs. 49ers – Raiders +10

The only reason why we take the Raiders to defend the spread here is their passing offense and the ability to score 30+ points against anyone.

Sure, that could mean nothing against the ruthless 49ers, who have one of the best offenses and defenses in the NFL. But when you look at all this, the Niners are winning games by an average margin of 8.2 points. They are 4-0 at home, yet they didn’t blow out any of their previous rivals.

Instead, they are managing the clock and trying to slow the tempo once they pull away, so it’s quite possible to see the LVR staying close.

Here is the NFL Week 9 schedule with all the preview links.