What Does ‘Square Dog’ Mean in Sports Betting?
Based on the common slang in sports betting, a “Square Dog” is an underdog that the general public (the “squares”) is heavily betting on.
To fully understand this term, you need to break it down into its two parts: “square” and “dog.”
What is a “Square”?
In sports betting, a “square” is a casual, recreational, or unsophisticated bettor. This is the general public.
- They bet for fun, not professionally.
- They often bet on their favorite teams, popular teams (like the Dallas Cowboys or Los Angeles Lakers), or the team getting the most media hype.
- They are the opposite of a “sharp” (a professional, disciplined bettor who bets based on sophisticated models and research).
What is a “Dog”?
A “dog” is simply short for underdog.
- This is the team or athlete that is perceived by the sportsbook as being less likely to win a game.
- Underdogs are identified by the plus sign ($+$) in American odds (e.g., +150) or the higher number in decimal odds (e.g., 2.50).
- A bet on the “dog” pays out more than the amount wagered if it wins (a $100 bet at +150 wins $150).
Putting It All Together: “Square Dog”
A “Square Dog” is a specific type of underdog that, for one reason or another, has become the popular public pick.
This situation is somewhat rare, as squares instinctively prefer to bet on favorites (the teams expected to win). However, it can happen if:
- A “Public” Team is the Underdog: A very popular team with a national following (like Notre Dame football or the New York Yankees) happens to be the underdog in a specific game. The public will bet on them out of loyalty, regardless of the matchup.
- Media Hype: The media builds a strong narrative around an underdog, creating a “Cinderella story” that the public wants to bet on.
- A Star Player Returns: A star player on an otherwise mediocre team returns from injury, causing the public to overvalue their chances as an underdog.
Why This Term Matters
Professional bettors (“sharps”) often look for “square dogs.” When they see the public heavily betting on one side (either the favorite or an underdog), they will often bet the other way. This is called “fading the public.”
In the case of a “square dog,” a sharp bettor might see that the public is betting on an underdog for emotional or narrative-driven reasons, not because of smart analysis. The sharp will then bet on the favorite, believing the public has created bad-betting value on the underdog.