Kentucky Derby: Post Position Bias – What History Tells Us Ahead of the Race in 2026
The opening leg of the Triple Crown is just days away, with this year’s crop of three-year-olds set to test themselves in America’s most famous race, the Kentucky Derby.
Churchill Downs has the tendency to create champions, with iconic winners such as Secretariat and American Pharoah still considered legends for what they achieved in the Derby.
However, for most bettors, one of the most important dates of Derby week is seven days prior, as the post position draw is completed at Churchill Downs. But, what is the post position bias in the Kentucky Derby, and what draws will be considered as positives or negatives by the leading hopes?
Why Is Post Position Important in the Kentucky Derby?
As mentioned in our Kentucky Derby trends, the post position could make or break the chances of a contender.
The starting stall of a horse is vitally important, as a good draw will avoid congestion in a 20-runner field, while the short run from the starting gate to the first turn means that those drawn lower will typically get squeezed, negatively impacting their chances of victory.
However, wide draws are also considered a negative, as a contender will need to cover more distance to get track position.
What is the Most Successful Winning Post Position?
Owners and trainers will be aware of the post position trends, meaning that some starting stalls will be more coveted than others. Stall five is historically the most prolific, with ten winners breaking from that position, including most recently Always Dreaming in 2017.
This starting post has also averaged a 10% strike-rate in terms of Derby winners, and 23% have finished in-the-money. Only stall ten also has a 10% strike rate for win purposes in the Derby, but Giacomo (2005) was the latest winner to break from that stall.
Last year, Sovereignty won the Derby from 18, becoming the first winner since Country House in 2019 to win from that position.
Kentucky Derby Post Position History
Below, you can find the full stats for all post positions in the Kentucky Derby.
| Post Position | Last Winning Horse | Win Rate | In-The-Money Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ferdinand (1986) | 8.40% | 18.90% |
| 2 | Affirmed (1978) | 7.40% | 27.40% |
| 3 | Mystik Dan (2024) | 6.30% | 23.20% |
| 4 | Super Saver (2010) | 5.30% | 15.80% |
| 5 | Always Dreaming (2017) | 10.50% | 23.30% |
| 6 | Sea Hero (1993) | 2.10% | 14% |
| 7 | Mandaloun (2021) | 8.50% | 21.80% |
| 8 | Mage (2023) | 9.60% | 20.20% |
| 9 | Riva Ridge (1972) | 4.40% | 19.80% |
| 10 | Giacomo (2005) | 10.20% | 29.50% |
| 11 | Winning Colors (1988) | 2.40% | 14.30% |
| 12 | Canonero II (1971) | 3.80% | 12.50% |
| 13 | Nyquist (2016) | 6.40% | 21.80% |
| 14 | Carry Back | 2.90% | 20.60% |
| 15 | Authentic (2020) | 9.50% | 14.30% |
| 16 | Animal Kingdom (2011) | 7.70% | 19.20% |
| 17 | N/A | 0.00% | 6.70% |
| 18 | Sovereignty (2025) | 6.10% | 16.20% |
| 19 | I’ll Have Another (2012) | 3.20% | 6.50% |
| 20 | Rich Strike (2022) | 10.50% | 15.80% |
What Does The Post Position Draw Mean For Bettors?
Most experienced bettors will hold fire on making their Kentucky Derby bets before the draw has been completed, as a negative starting position would damage a runner’s hopes of success.
For example, being drawn in stall 17 would require ending a winning drought that extends throughout Derby history. In general, bettors will be looking for horses drawn between stalls five and ten, while wider draws such as 18, 19, and 20 have achieved notable recent success.
However, while the draw matters, it is ultimately important to consider the quality of the horse, potential race pace, and the rider who will play the most important role.
