UFC Sao Paulo Preview: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction, Odds, and Picks (Nov 4)

By · October 30, 2023
  • Jailton Almeida has only got punched twice in his last five UFC fights.
  • Derrick Lewis holds the UFC record for the most KO/TKO wins.
  • Almeida lands 6.40 TDs per 15 minutes; Lewis’s TD defense is 52%.

Jailton Almeida got hit only twice in total in the five UFC fights he’s fought so far. But Derrick Lewis doesn’t need to hit him too many times. The UFC record-holder for most KO wins only needs one punch to finish him. Still, judging by the UFC Sao Paulo odds, that’s unlikely to happen. Instead, betting odds suggest the Brazilian fighter is going to have an easy job on November 4.

How to Watch

  • When: Saturday, November 4, 2023, at 11:00 p.m ET
  • Where: Ginasio do Ibirapuera, Sao Paulo, Brazil
  • How to Watch: ESPN+


Jailton Almeida-450
Derrick Lewis+350

Fight Preview

Jailton Almeida’s record is 19-2, with those two losses happening in the early days of his career. Actually, the guy has won every single one of his last 14 MMA fights. An equally impressive fact is that each of those happened by a finish.

This includes the five UFC fights he’s fought so far, three of which saw him get the Performance of the Night bonus. In his most recent trip to the Octagon, Almeida defeated Jairzinho Rozenstruik by submission in round 1.

This is important because Rozenstruik isn’t too dissimilar a fighter to Lewis. He too is a powerful striker, but he couldn’t land any kicks or punches in the fight with Almeida. Instead, the Brazilian took him down on the second attempt.

Should this worry Lewis? We think it should. His takedown defense isn’t great (52%), while Almeida’s landing 6.40 TDs per fight on average. That’s a higher number than any of Lewis’s previous opponents in the UFC.

Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis Prediction

The UFC Sao Paulo odds suggest there’s no way Almeida’s losing this fight. Almeida’s odds are -450, meaning that he’s expected to get the job done with no major problems. We agree. We think he’s going to do pretty much the same as in the fight with Jairzinho. He’s going to take Lewis down and finish him.

Free Pick:

Annie Adkins
Contributor Annie is a seasoned veteran in sports betting and has been working in the industry for over 7 years. Her goal of educating others and sharing her knowledge on the topic has brought her to VegasOdds.com where she regularly contributes to our cornerstone guides and news to help readers improve their sports betting game. If you don’t find her writing, you can bet she’ll be studying sports stats!

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