Inter Miami vs Columbus Prediction and Picks: MLS Playoffs Round One, Game 1 (Nov 21)

The most-watched first round series in MLS gets going on Saturday night as the defending champions open their title defense. Inter Miami host Columbus Crew in Game 1 of their best-of-three series, and on paper it’s a mismatch: the oddsmakers have Miami at +450 to win the MLS Cup and Columbus at +6600. On the field, it’s a lot closer than that.

Columbus come into the playoffs as the hottest team in the league, with six straight MLS wins, and they beat Miami the last time these sides met. Miami have the best player in the league in Lionel Messi, fresh off his second straight Golden Boot, but they haven’t kept a clean sheet in over a month. Here’s our Inter Miami vs Columbus prediction, the latest odds and our best bets for the series.

Inter Miami vs Columbus Series Schedule

Game	Date	Kickoff	Venue
Game 1	Sat, Nov 21	6:00 PM ET	Nu Stadium, Miami
Game 2	Fri, Nov 27	8:00 PM ET	Columbus
Game 3*	TBC	TBC	Nu Stadium, Miami

*If needed. Every game is on Apple TV.

Round One is a best-of-three series, and there are no draws. If a game is level after 90 minutes, it goes straight to a penalty shootout, and the shootout winner takes the game. As the higher seed, Miami hosts Games 1 and 3.

Inter Miami vs Columbus Odds

Market	Inter Miami	Columbus
Win MLS Cup	+450	+6600
Reach MLS Cup final	+225	+2800

Odds from BetOnline, checked Nov 11. Game 1 match odds will be added here as soon as they’re posted.

The futures market tells you how the books see this series: Miami as clear favorites to advance and among the three teams most likely to win the whole thing. Columbus are priced as one of the long shots. Given the form guide, we think that gap is too big.

Inter Miami vs Columbus Prediction

Columbus Are the Form Team in MLS

Nobody finished the regular season stronger than Columbus. They won their last six MLS games in a row, scoring 18 goals and conceding six, including a 4-3 win at Chicago on Decision Day. The only blip in that run came in the US Open Cup final on Oct 21, a 0-0 draw with St. Louis that they lost on penalties.

This is a team that scores. They hit at least two goals in every one of those six wins, and they’ve already shown they can do it against Miami, winning 2-1 at home on Sept 27.

Miami’s Defense Is the Worry

Miami’s attack is as dangerous as ever, but the back line has leaked goals all fall. They’ve conceded in five straight games since their last clean sheet against NYCFC on Oct 14, and the run-in included 2-2 and 3-3 home draws with Cincinnati and Charlotte, plus a 2-0 loss at the Red Bulls. Their last six MLS games read three wins, two draws and a loss, with 12 goals scored and nine conceded.

That’s a team that can outscore anyone but struggles to shut games down, and that’s exactly the kind of game Columbus want.

Head-to-Head: Goals Guaranteed

Miami have the better of the recent history. Since 2023 these teams have met eight times in MLS, and Miami have won five, drawn two and lost one. The headline for bettors, though, is that both teams scored in seven of those eight meetings, including both games this season (a 2-2 draw in Miami in August and Columbus’ 2-1 win in September, when Miami finished with 10 men).

Will Messi Play?

As things stand, there’s no sign Messi will miss Game 1, and we’ll update this page if that changes. He’s been close to unstoppable this season: 26 goals and 17 assists in 31 appearances, a league-best 43 goal contributions and his second straight MLS Golden Boot. He’s scoring at a rate of almost a goal every 100 minutes, and he put 69 shots on target. At home against a Columbus side that likes to attack, he’ll get chances.

Inter Miami vs Columbus Picks

Best Bet: Both Teams to Score in Game 1

The angle that jumps out is goals at both ends. Columbus have scored two or more in six straight games, Miami have conceded in five straight, and both teams scored in seven of the last eight meetings. We’ll add the price when Game 1 odds are posted, but this is our strongest play of the series.

Player Prop: Lionel Messi Anytime Goalscorer

With 26 goals in 31 games, Messi is averaging close to a goal a game, and Game 1 at Nu Stadium is the best spot of the series to back himThis is the natural pairing with both teams to score, so look for it in a same-game parlay.

Series Pick: Inter Miami to Advance

Columbus are good enough to win a game, and we wouldn’t be shocked if they steal Game 2 at home. Over three games, though, Miami’s quality, Messi and home advantage in Games 1 and 3 should see them through. If you’re looking for a longer shot, Columbus at +2800 to reach the final is a big price for the league’s hottest team, but we’re siding with Miami in this series.

For the full playoff board, see our MLS Cup odds page, and for every other playoff game, check out our MLS predictions.

How to Bet on Inter Miami vs Columbus

Game 1 kicks off at 6:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 21 at Nu Stadium, live on Apple TV, so there’s plenty of time to get your bets in once the lines are posted after Thursday’s Wild Card games. For this series, the markets worth looking at are both teams to score, Messi anytime goalscorer, and a series price on who advances, which counts penalty shootouts and avoids the 90-minute draw problem that comes with a straight moneyline.

The sportsbooks below all accept US players and cover the full series, including Messi player props and same-game parlays. New players can also claim a welcome bonus on their first deposit.

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