Expert prediction
NFL Madrid Game Pick: Bengals vs Falcons Prediction and Odds for Week 9
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Best bet: Bengals -3.5 (now -3)
Total pick: Under 51.5 (now 52.5)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineThe NFL heads back to Spain in Week 9, with the Cincinnati Bengals and Atlanta Falcons meeting at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid. Cincinnati arrives at 5-2 after a wild overtime win over the Titans, while Atlanta is 3-5 and coming off a rain-soaked shutout loss in Tampa Bay. The Bengals are 3-point favorites, with the total at 52.5.
You can find the latest NFL odds for every game this week, but here’s why I’m backing the Bengals to cover and the under, and how you can bet on Bengals vs Falcons.
Update, Nov 3: The Bengals have moved from -3.5 to -3 (-115), and the total has gone up from 51.5 to 52.5. We’re sticking with both picks, graded at the numbers we published (Bengals -3.5, Under 51.5). The moneyline is now live, with the Bengals at -165. Odds from BetOnline as of Nov 3.
Sunday, Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET · Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid · NFL Network
Bengals vs Falcons Betting Odds (BetOnline)
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | -165 | -3 (-115) | Over 52.5 (-110) |
| Atlanta Falcons | +145 | +3 (-105) | Under 52.5 (-110) |
Game Preview
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati made hard work of it in Week 8, but still found a way past the Titans 43-36 in overtime. The Bengals didn’t score in the first quarter and trailed 13-0, before Joe Burrow took over. He went 38 of 48 for 462 yards and five touchdowns, although he also threw three interceptions and lost a fumble, so it wasn’t a clean day. Tee Higgins was the standout, with 10 catches for 155 yards and two touchdowns.
That followed a 35-13 win over the Ravens in Week 7, and at 5-2, the Bengals’ offense is as dangerous as any in the league when Burrow gets going. The concern is on the other side of the ball. Cincinnati gave up 36 points to a 1-7 Titans team, with Cameron Ward throwing for 304 yards and Tony Pollard running for 117 yards and two scores.
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta’s 16-0 loss in Tampa Bay is a hard game to read too much into. The rain was so heavy that the Buccaneers didn’t complete a single pass, with Baker Mayfield going 0 for 3, and Tampa Bay simply handed the ball to Bucky Irving, who ran for 170 yards and a touchdown. Michael Penix Jr. struggled badly in the conditions, going 8 of 24 for 125 yards with four interceptions, and Bijan Robinson was held to 76 yards on 19 carries.
At 3-5, the Falcons need a performance. Sunday’s forecast in Madrid is for some light rain, nothing like last week’s downpour, so Penix should get a fairer chance to throw the ball. Still, this is an offense that has to prove it can score consistently, and Atlanta’s run defense will have questions to answer after the way Irving ran through it.
Bengals vs Falcons Predictions
There’s no real home-field edge at a neutral site, so the Bengals are favored on talent alone, and I think that’s the right side. Cincinnati’s offense put up 43 points last week even with four turnovers, and with Burrow throwing to Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, the Bengals have far more ways to score than an Atlanta offense still looking for answers.
I took the Bengals at -3.5, where they needed to win by four. The move to -3 is good news if you’re betting it now, because three is the most common winning margin in the NFL, and at -3 a three-point Bengals win is a push rather than a loss. You’re paying a little extra juice at -115 for that, but it’s worth it.
The moneyline is now up too, with the Bengals at -165 and the Falcons at +145. If you’d rather just back Cincinnati to win, -165 is a fair price, and it makes a solid parlay leg.
The total is the more interesting call. At 52.5, the market is expecting points, and that makes sense given the Bengals have been involved in some high-scoring games. But international games have had a small lean towards the under, which is 30-26 across the last 56, and the only previous game at the Bernabéu also stayed under.
A 9:30 AM ET kickoff plays its part, with both teams adjusting to a body clock that feels like mid-afternoon in Europe and early morning back home. We saw last week how slowly the Bengals can start, with no points in the first quarter, and even light rain can take a little off both passing games. I took the under at 51.5, and the move to 52.5 only gives anyone betting it now an extra point to work with.
- Best bet: Bengals -3.5 (now -3)
- Bengals vs Falcons moneyline pick: Bengals (-165)
- Bengals vs Falcons pick against the spread: Bengals -3.5 (now -3)
- Bengals vs Falcons over/under pick: Under 51.5 (now 52.5)
Where to Bet on Bengals vs Falcons
An early Sunday kickoff in Madrid gives you a full extra game to bet before the 1 PM ET slate gets going. All of the sportsbooks below accept US players and offer spreads, moneylines, totals and player props on Bengals vs Falcons, plus a welcome bonus for new players. BetOnline is our top pick, with up to $250 in free bets and no rollover for new customers.
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