ATP Finals 2026 Odds and Picks: Can Anyone Stop Alcaraz in Turin?

The ATP Finals return to Turin, Italy, this month, but the home crowd will be missing its biggest star. Jannik Sinner, the champion in each of the last two years, ended his season in October with a knee injury, so there will be no three-peat at the Inalpi Arena.

That leaves the door wide open for Carlos Alcaraz. The Spaniard arrives off back-to-back indoor titles in Vienna and Paris, and he’s a -110 favorite to win the season-ending event for the first time. New world No. 1 Alexander Zverev, a two-time champion, is the obvious threat, and there’s plenty of American interest in Ben Shelton and Frances Tiafoe, plus first-timers Rafael Jodar, Arthur Fils and Flavio Cobolli.

Below you’ll find the latest ATP Finals odds, the field, the format and schedule, and our picks.

Sunday, Nov 15 to Sunday, Nov 22 · Inalpi Arena, Turin, Italy · Tennis Channel

ATP Finals 2026 Odds

Player	Odds	Implied chance
Carlos Alcaraz	-110	52.4%
Alexander Zverev	+400	20.0%
Ben Shelton	+600	14.3%
Daniil Medvedev	+1000	9.1%
Rafael Jodar	+1000	9.1%
Arthur Fils	+1200	7.7%
Frances Tiafoe	+2500	3.8%
Flavio Cobolli	+3300	2.9%

Odds from BetOnline, November 11.

Alcaraz at -110 means the market gives him a better than even chance against the other seven combined. Zverev at +400 is the only other player priced shorter than +600, while Jodar sits level with former champion Medvedev at +1000. That’s quite a price for a 20-year-old making his debut.

ATP Finals 2026 Field

Player	Country	2026 highlight
Alexander Zverev	Germany	French Open and US Open champion, new world No. 1
Carlos Alcaraz	Spain	Australian Open champion, Paris Masters champion
Ben Shelton	USA	US Open and Paris Masters finalist
Daniil Medvedev	Russia	Indian Wells finalist
Flavio Cobolli	Italy	French Open finalist
Arthur Fils	France	Cincinnati Masters champion
Frances Tiafoe	USA	Halle champion, US Open semifinalist
Rafael Jodar	Spain	Shanghai Masters finalist

Alternates: Alex de Minaur and Taylor Fritz. Novak Djokovic didn’t qualify.

ATP Finals 2026 Schedule and Format

The eight players are split into two groups of four, the John McEnroe Group and the Ivan Lendl Group, and each player faces everyone in his group once. The top two from each group reach the semifinals, where the group winners take on the runners-up from the other group. All matches are best of three sets.

Because the top two seeds are always placed in separate groups, Zverev and Alcaraz can’t meet until the semifinals at the earliest.

Stage	Dates
Group stage	Sun, Nov 15 to Fri, Nov 20
Semifinals	Sat, Nov 21
Final	Sun, Nov 22

ATP Finals 2026 Groups

The draw takes place on Thursday, November 12. We’ll add the groups here as soon as they’re confirmed.

Opening Matches

The first group matches are on Sunday, November 15. We’ll add the matchups and odds once the draw is made.

ATP Finals 2026 Picks and Predictions

With Sinner out, this is the most open ATP Finals in years, but it’s hard to look past the two men who shared the Grand Slams between them. Alcaraz won the Australian Open in January, while Zverev finally broke through at the French Open, beating Cobolli in five sets, before adding the US Open title against Shelton in September. Those two majors carried Zverev to world No. 1, and he’s no stranger to Turin, having won the title here in 2021 as well as in London in 2018.

Alcaraz’s season has been stop-start. A wrist injury kept him off the tour for around four and a half months, so he missed Roland Garros and Wimbledon entirely. He came back to reach the US Open quarterfinals, where Shelton beat him, but he’s been close to untouchable since. He beat Shelton in straight sets in Sunday’s Paris Masters final for his fifth title of the year and his first Masters 1000 crown of 2026.

Shelton will fancy his chances of going deep. The lefty has reached the US Open and Paris Masters finals in the past two months, and his huge serve is built for a fast indoor court. A win would make him the first left-handed champion at the season finale since John McEnroe in 1984.

Daniil Medvedev is the only other former champion in the field, having won in 2020. He reached the Indian Wells final in March, beating Alcaraz along the way, which was the Spaniard’s first loss of the year. Cobolli carries the hopes of the home crowd after reaching his first Grand Slam final in Paris. Fils won his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati back in August, and Jodar has been one of the stories of the season, going from outside the top 150 a year ago to the Shanghai Masters final.

How We’re Betting the ATP Finals 2026

The stage is set for Alcaraz to win the ATP Finals for the first time. He’s won his last ten matches and two indoor titles in a row, and in Paris he beat the third seed in the final without dropping a set. He lost the 2025 final here to Sinner, and with Sinner missing, the man who has had his number in Turin is out of the way. At -110, he’s the bet.

At a bigger price, Frances Tiafoe offers value. The American has quietly put together the best season of his career. He won the Halle title in June, beating Taylor Fritz in the final, reached the Cincinnati final in August and made the US Open semifinals. He’s a big-stage player who thrives on atmosphere, and at +2500, a run to the final would give you a lot of options to trade or hedge.

How to Bet on the ATP Finals 2026

Turin is the last big tennis betting week of the year, and every match comes with moneyline, set betting and total games markets, alongside the outright odds above. Here’s how to get set before the first ball on Sunday:

1. Pick your sportsbook. We used BetOnline’s odds for this preview. BetUS and BetWhale also offer ATP Finals markets and accept US players.
2. Create your account and verify your details. Use your real name and information, then upload your ID before betting so withdrawals go through smoothly.
3. Make your first deposit before the draw, or straight after it. Outright prices can move quickly once the groups are known, especially for players who land in the tougher group.
4. Place your bets. Back Alcaraz to win the title, take Tiafoe at +2500, or wait for Sunday’s opening matches and bet the group-stage moneylines.

Tip: Group-stage matches can turn on qualification maths by Thursday and Friday, when one player may already be through and the other playing for his place. Check the group standings before betting the final round-robin matches.

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