Expert prediction
NFL Picks This Week (Week 9): Jaguars Lock, Cowboys Best Bet, and a +400 Parlay
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Lock of the week: Jaguars -10 (-110)
Best bet: Cowboys moneyline (-250)
Value pick: Jets +10 (-115)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineThese are our NFL picks this week: the three bets we’re most confident in from the entire slate, including our lock of the week. Every pick comes with the latest odds and our reasoning, and you’ll also find what all three pay together as a parlay.
There’s no such thing as a sure bet in the NFL, but these are the spots where we think the numbers are on our side. This page is updated every week once the lines are posted, with fresh odds and reasoning for every pick.
Update, Nov 3: We’ve made two changes to this week’s picks so they line up with our full game previews. Our lock of the week is now Jaguars -10, replacing Bengals vs. Falcons Over 51.5, and our value pick is now Jets +10. Odds from BetOnline as of Nov 3.
Our Best NFL Bets for Week 9
Week 9 kicks off with a Thursday night mismatch in Baltimore, then gives us a Cowboys side that badly needs a win and a double-digit spread in Kansas City that we think is a point or two too big. Here’s where we’re putting our money.
Lock of the Week: Jaguars -10 (-110) at Ravens
No game on the Week 9 board has moved like this one. Early lines had Baltimore as a three-point home favorite. Then Lamar Jackson went on injured reserve, and Jacksonville is now laying 10 on the road. That’s a 13-point swing, and we still don’t think the market has gone far enough.
The Ravens are 4-4 and have lost two straight, by 22 to Cincinnati and 26 in Buffalo. Third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano threw for just 91 yards against the Bills, Tyler Huntley’s status is up in the air, and there’s no realistic way to bring in a veteran and get him ready on a short week. Derrick Henry is the one weapon left, and he’s running straight into the NFL’s best run defense.
Jacksonville, meanwhile, is rolling. The Jaguars are 5-2 after hammering the Colts 42-7, a game they led 28-0 at halftime. Trevor Lawrence has 17 touchdowns and just four interceptions on the season, and a defense allowing only 17.3 points per game should have a field day against an offense this short of answers.
Laying 10 means the Jaguars need to win by 11. Against a Ravens team that has scored 23 points in its last two games combined, we think they get there comfortably.
Best Bet: Cowboys Moneyline (-250) vs. Colts
The fact that the Cowboys still have a shot at the NFC East, despite all the mess and missed chances, is surprising to say the least. Brian Schottenheimer knows it too. This game could be the turning point of Dallas’s season, and its luck is that the rivals are in even bigger trouble.
The Colts were humiliated 42-7 in Jacksonville last weekend. Shane Steichen is under serious pressure, and the Jonathan Taylor trade talk has hardly helped the mood in that locker room. Add the fact that Indianapolis has the third-worst scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 27.8 points per game, and backing Dallas to win this one looks like a very good spot.
Dak Prescott and company have issues of their own, no question. But a win here would go a long way to erasing that 33-30 overtime loss to the Cardinals in Week 8 and put the Cowboys right back in the playoff picture.
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Bet on the NFL TodayValue Pick of the Week: Jets +10 (-115) vs. Chiefs
Ten points is a lot to lay in the NFL, and we think the market has overreacted to the Jets’ slide.
Yes, New York arrives at Arrowhead on a three-game losing streak, having conceded 92 points in that stretch. But look at the last one: the Jets scored 33 in their loss to the Raiders. This offense can keep up, and Braelon Allen, with 565 rushing yards on the season, gives it a ground game to shorten the clock and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sideline.
The Chiefs come home after back-to-back road losses, the latest a collapse in Denver where they blew an 11-point lead with 10 minutes to play. Andy Reid’s side will be fired up, and we expect them to win. Winning by 11 or more against a team that just put 33 on the board is a different ask, though.
The big worry on the Jets’ side is rookie edge rusher David Bailey, who missed the Raiders game and is a doubt again here. Without him, the pass rush loses its best weapon. That’s already priced into a double-digit spread, though, and with a backdoor cover always in play late, we’ll take the points.
Our NFL Parlay Picks This Week: What Our Best Bets Pay Together
Our best NFL parlay this week combines our lock of the week and best bet: Jaguars -10 and the Cowboys moneyline. That two-leg parlay pays around +167 at BetOnline, so $100 returns $267. Add Jets +10 as our value pick, and the three-leg parlay jumps to around +400, returning $500 on a $100 bet.
| Parlay | Legs | Odds | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lock + Best Bet | Jaguars -10, Cowboys ML | +167 | $267 |
| All three | Jaguars -10, Cowboys ML, Jets +10 | +400 | $500 |
Parlay prices can shift slightly as the lines move, so check the payout on your bet slip before confirming. With the Jaguars playing on Thursday night, you’ll know if your first leg has landed before the weekend.
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