What Are ‘Contingent Outcomes’ in Sports Betting?
In sports betting, contingent outcomes refer to a situation where the result of one part of a wager directly influences the probability or outcome of another part of the same wager. These events are linked in a way that if one happens, the other is more likely to happen as well.
Because of this direct correlation, most sportsbooks prohibit bettors from combining contingent outcomes into a standard parlay. If they were allowed, bettors could gain a significant and unfair advantage, as the combined odds would not accurately reflect the true, linked probability of the events occurring together.
Key Characteristics and Examples
The core principle of a contingent outcome is a cause-and-effect relationship between two or more bets.
Common Examples:
- Quarterback and Receiver Props: A classic example is trying to parlay a quarterback’s total passing yards (e.g., Over 299.5 yards) with one of his wide receiver’s total receiving yards (e.g., Over 99.5 yards).
- Contingency: If the quarterback has a big game and throws for over 300 yards, it is highly likely that his primary receiver will also have a successful game. The two outcomes are directly linked. A standard parlay is not allowed.
- First Half and Full Game Spreads: Another common example is attempting to parlay the point spread for the first half of a game with the point spread for the full game.
- Contingency: A team that covers a -3.5 spread in the first half (leading by 4 or more) is statistically much more likely to cover the -6.5 spread for the entire game. The success of the first leg makes the second leg more probable.
How Sportsbooks Handle Contingent Outcomes
Because standard parlays of contingent outcomes are disallowed, sportsbooks have developed a specific product to cater to this demand: the Same Game Parlay (SGP).
An SGP is a special type of parlay that allows you to combine multiple correlated outcomes from the same event. However, the odds for an SGP are calculated using a different, more complex formula than a standard parlay. The sportsbook adjusts the price to account for the correlation between the chosen legs. While the payout will be lower than what a true parlay of the same odds would be, it gives bettors the ability to create a specific narrative for a game and wager on it.
In summary, contingent outcomes are interconnected bets where one result impacts the likelihood of another. While you cannot combine them in a regular parlay, the modern Same Game Parlay is the betting industry’s solution to allow for these popular, narrative-driven wagers.