What Does ‘Edge’ Mean in Sports Betting?
This is the holy grail of sports betting. An “edge” is a perceived or real advantage you have over the sportsbook on a particular bet.
In simple terms, it’s when you believe the true chances of something happening are higher than what the sportsbook’s odds are implying.
If you have an “edge,” you’ve found what you believe to be a “mistake” in the price. You’re getting better value than you should be. This is also called having “positive expected value” (+EV).
An Easy Way to Think About It
Imagine a coin flip. The true odds are 50/50 (+100).
- The Sportsbook’s Edge (The “Vig”): A sportsbook won’t give you +100 odds. It will make you bet $11 to win $10 (-110) on both heads and tails. This 10% “fee” is their built-in edge.
- Your Edge: Now, what if you had a “magic” coin that you knew landed on heads 55% of the time? But the sportsbook still thought it was a 50/50 flip and offered you -110 odds. That 5% difference is your edge. You have a massive advantage and should bet on heads every time.
How Do Bettors Find an Edge?
Finding an edge is the entire goal of a professional bettor. They try to find one by:
- Line Shopping: This is the easiest way. Finding a sportsbook that has the Cowboys at -3 while every other book in the world has them at -4. That one point is your edge.
- Smarter Models: A bettor might create a computer model that they believe is better at predicting scores than the sportsbook’s model.
- Better Information: Knowing about a key player’s injury or a last-minute lineup change before the sportsbook has time to adjust the line.
- Specialized Knowledge: Focusing on a small, less popular market (like FCS college football or a specific player prop) where you know more than the oddsmaker.