What Does ‘Hit Rate’ Mean in Sports Betting?

“Hit Rate” can refer to two different things in sports betting.

1. A percentage that shows how often you are winning your bets.
2. A percentage that shows how many times an athlete has gone OVER (or UNDER) a specific prop line over a certain period.

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1. How Often You Win

It’s a very simple calculation:

• Formula: (Number of Wins / Total Bets Placed) = Hit Rate
• Example: If you place 100 bets and you win 60 of them, your hit rate is 60%.

Always remember that a high hit rate does NOT mean you are a profitable bettor.

It sounds crazy, but it’s the most common trap for new bettors. Why? Because it all depends on the odds you are betting on.

2. Over/Under a Specific Prop Line

This is a huge part of researching “prop bets” (player-specific bets). You’ll see it all the time on betting research sites.

🏀 Example: NBA Player Prop

Let’s say you want to bet on LeBron James’s points.

• The Bet: The sportsbook sets the line at Over/Under 25.5 points.
• The Research: You look up his “hit rate.”
• The Stat: You see that LeBron has a 70% hit rate for “Over 25.5 points” in his last 10 games.

This means he has scored 26 points or more in 7 of his last 10 games. This stat helps you decide if the “Over” is a good bet.

You can check this stat for different timeframes, like:

• Last 5 games (shows recent “hot streaks”)
• Last 20 games (shows long-term consistency)
• Hit rate vs. a specific team (e.g., “LeBron has hit the ‘Over’ in 8 of his last 9 games against the Celtics.”)