Biggest Super Bowl Betting Upsets of All Time
The Super Bowl is the most heavily bet sporting event in the United States. While favorites win more often than not, history has produced several shocking results that punished public bettors and rewarded those willing to back the underdog.
These games stand out as the biggest Super Bowl betting upsets, judged by closing odds, public betting percentages, and historical context.
Over the following few paragraphs, see the top 4 biggest Super Bowl upsets in the history of this game.
1. Super Bowl III
- Jets vs. Colts
- Spread: Colts −18
- Moneyline:
- Colts: ~−900 to −1000
- Jets: ~+700 to +800
Result: Jets won 16–7
This remains the greatest betting upset in Super Bowl history. Baltimore was considered vastly superior, and many sportsbooks refused to even take the Jets’ money early in the week.
Joe Namath’s “guarantee” flipped football history on its head and legitimized the AFL. He ended the game setting a record at a time, having 28 passing attempts without an interception.
An 18-point underdog winning outright has never been matched on the Super Bowl stage.
2. Super Bowl XLII
- Giants vs. Patriots
- Spread: Patriots −12
- Moneyline:
- Patriots: −450 to −480
- Giants: +360 to +400
Result: Giants won 17–14
New England entered undefeated at 18–0 and was one win away from the greatest season ever. The public overwhelmingly backed the Patriots, loading moneylines, spreads, and futures.
The Giants not only covered but won outright, delivering one of the most financially painful results sportsbooks had ever seen. They’ve frozen the Pats’ running game, allowing only 45 rushing yards. And this Super Bowl also featured an iconic “Helmet Catch” by David Tyree.
3. Super Bowl IV
- Chiefs vs. Vikings
- Spread: Vikings −12
- Moneyline:
- Vikings: ~−500 to −600
- Chiefs: ~+400 to +450
Result: Chiefs won 23–7
Following Super Bowl III, many still believed the AFL’s success was a fluke, something that won’t repeat often in the future. Minnesota entered this one as a heavy favorite, but Kansas City dominated defensively and physically. Back-to-back AFL outright wins forced oddsmakers and bettors to permanently reevaluate league parity.
This was also the first Super Bowl with one of the head coaches being miked up – Hank Stam from the Kansas City Chiefs.
4. Super Bowl XXXII
- Broncos vs. Packers
- Spread: Packers −11
- Moneyline:
- Packers: −430 to −460
- Broncos: +350 to +380
Result: Broncos won 31–24
Green Bay was expected to repeat as champions, while Denver carried a reputation for Super Bowl failures. Instead, Terrell Davis powered the Broncos to victory, ending the AFC’s long Super Bowl drought. He ended the night wth 157 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns.
This game eventually put an end to a potential Green Bay Packers dynasty, and even though Brett Favre remained one of the best QBs ever in the league, the Packers never returned to that level of play under his leadership.
