March Madness Betting Trends: What the Data Says
All the NCAA basketball bettors have pretty much the same question at the start of March:
Are there reliable March Madness betting trends that could help to gain profits?
While the NCAA Tournament will always be unpredictable, years of numbers, betting lines, and results show that certain patterns are present. Understanding these trends won’t guarantee any money, but they can help to avoid common mistakes and make smarter decisions.
Favorites Deliver More Often Than People Think
Upsets are creating plenty of buzz, and they are in the middle of the story, often getting more attention than the top seeds and their wins. That can create a false image and a wrong narrative. It’s why many bettors think underdogs are the best way to make money in March.
Well, that’s not entirely true.
Historically, top seeds, especially #1 and #2, advance deep into the tournament far more often than casual fans think. Most national champions come from this group. While double-digit seeds do win games, they rarely go all the way and win all six at the tournament.
One of the most reliable March Madness betting trends is that elite teams usually deliver over time. Betting against favorites is bold and can even get some short-term profits, but in the long run, it destroys the bankroll.
Early Rounds Favor Underdogs Against the Spread
While favorites tend to win outright, underdogs often perform well against the point spread in the first two rounds.
Why does this happen?
- Spreads are inflated on popular teams
- Public money leans toward big-name programs
- Smaller schools play with nothing to lose
- Neutral courts reduce home-court advantages
- Top schools save themselves for the latter rounds
As a result, #12, #11, and #10 seeds frequently “cover” even when they lose. This is one of the most consistent March Madness betting trends that repeats itself over time, and it can be very useful for spread bettors.
Overs and Unders Shift as the Tournament Goes On
Totals betting also shows clear patterns that have to be taken into consideration.
In the first round, overs often perform well. Teams are rested, shooting legs are fresh, and nerves can lead to fast-paced games. Also, the difference between the teams is much bigger than in the later stages of the NCAA Tournament.
As the tournament progresses, things change:
- Defenses tighten
- Coaches shorten rotations
- Fatigue increases
- Pressure slows pace
By the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, unders become more attractive. Many late-round games turn into slower, more physical battles. NCAA bettors have to know this trend because it can turn out to be pretty valuable for their betting action.
Public Bias Creates Value
Public betting behavior plays a huge role in March. We’ve often seen that public bias creates illogical situations in the betting markets.
Check this out now. Most casual bettors prefer:
- Ranked teams
- Big conferences
- Star players
- Recent blowout winners
- Attractive performances
This creates inflated lines on popular teams. Meanwhile, “boring” teams (usually those that rely on team basketball, strong defense, and tactics) with strong fundamentals are often overlooked.
Data shows that fading public favorites, especially in high-profile games, can be profitable over time. It’s not about betting against popularity every time, but recognizing when hype has pushed a line too far. Just remember the Duke Blue Devils in 2018/19 when they had Zion, RJ Barrett, and Cam Reddish. While the public was convinced about their title run, the experts weren’t.
Close Games Are Less Predictable Than You Think
Another important trend involves tight spreads. Games lined at three points or fewer tend to be close to 50/50 outcomes. It’s something that history proven right.
In these matchups, injuries, foul trouble, and late-game coaching decisions matter more than any advanced stats or previous trends. So it’s wiser to move away from those contests, or to minimize the stake.
What the Numbers Really Teach Us About March Madness
After decades of results, one thing is pretty sure – there is no perfect system that secures constant profits during the NCAA Tournament. Yet, there are patterns that might help. Winning bettors tend to:
- Respect the top seeds as they deliver more often than believed
- Find suitable underdogs that might cover the spread in early rounds
- Adjust totals by round
- Know how to control themselves under public pressure and hype
- Avoid emotional bets and keep their cool
The best approach to March Madness betting trends isn’t memorizing stats. It’s learning how markets behave and adjust under pressure and when money floods in.
March Madness will always surprise us; there is no doubt about it. That’s part of the fun. But if you stick to the above-mentioned rules, the chances of making some money are far better than listening to hype and reading media headlines.
