Moneyline Betting Explained
When it comes to sports betting, the moneyline is the ground zero. Everything starts and ends with it, as it is the most popular and the basic bet.
Other bets, like point spreads or totals, are linked with the victory margin or the combined number of points, etc, while moneyline answers the simple question:
Who is going to win the game?
No conditions, no combined points, no spreads, nothing else, just a straightforward bet.
The Symbols: Plus (+) vs. Minus (-)
When looking at a moneyline, there is a number next to a plus or minus sign. It defines many things, but the most important is profit.
Here is how to determine that profit. The crucial thing is to see whether there is a MINUS or a PLUS next to a moneyline.
- MINUS: The team expected to win and is a FAVORITE. The number tells how much the bettor must spend to make $100 in profit.
- PLUS: The team expected to lose and is an UNDERDOG. The number shows the profit on a $100 bet.
Example:
Here we have an NFL game between the 49ers and the Seahawks.
| Team | Moneyline | Status | How it Works |
| San Francisco 49ers | -240 | Favorite | Must bet $240 to win $100. |
| Seattle Seahawks | +200 | Underdog | A $100 bet wins $200. |
A bettor might encounter a situation where moneylines are positive. That’s usually the case with outright/future bets.
Example: NFL Super Bowl Odds
- Seahawks +350
- Rams +450
- Bengals +600
- Bills +800
The favorite here is the team with the lowest positive number, which would be the Seahawks. And this is the rule when there are multiple positive moneylines. The profit when betting on their success would be $350, while betting on the Bills would bring $800.
Calculating Moneyline Profit
Determining the profits when betting on moneyline is not problematic at all. There are formulas to calculate the return and, eventually, the profit.
For the Favorite (-):
Profit = Wager Ă— (100 Ă· Moneyline Odds)Example: If you bet $50 on a -200 favorite, you calculate $50 \times (100/200)$, which equals $25 in profit.
For the Underdog (+):
Profit = Wager Ă— (Moneyline Odds Ă· 100)Example: If you bet $50 on a +150 underdog, you calculate $50 \times (150/100)$, which equals $75 in profit.
Why Choose Moneyline Over the Spread?
The eternal dilemma for bettors is whether to go with the moneyline or boost the profits with the spread. There are plenty of factors here, like the current form, the tradition, and the spread itself.
Here is some information that might help in moments like that.
| Scenario | Best Bet Type | Why? |
| Heavy Favorite | Spread | You think the team wins by a lot; the moneyline payout is too small. |
| Slight Favorite | Moneyline | You just want the win without worrying about a 1-point margin. |
| Live Underdog | Moneyline | You believe in the upset; the payout is much higher than the spread. |
| Big Underdog | Spread | You think they’ll keep it close but probably won’t win the game. |
Important Moneyline Betting Considerations
- Implied Probability:
We are going to break down the moneylline here with plain math.
Let’s say that Team A is a -200 favorite. According to mathematics, it has a 66.7% implied probability of winning.
If a bettor thinks the favorite has a better than 66.7% chance to win, that bet has “value.” The same applies the other way around in cases where some think the underdog is underestimated more than it should be.
- The “Even” Bet:
Occasionally, you will see EV or -110 on both sides. This is a “Pick’em” game where the oddsmakers see the teams as equal, and they, too, aren’t sure who is going to win and whose chances to end up on the winning side are better.
- Bankroll Management:
Any bet on the favorite requires a larger stake in order to win a meaningful profit. This carries the risk of a single wrong result wiping out the profits from several successful bets.
For example, the moneyline is -400, meaning the stake will be $400 to win $100. But if there’s an upset, the loss is $400, which is four times the potential profit from this bet.
Make balanced bets and rational decisions.