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Horse Racing Picks: Arkansas Derby Prediction, Preview, and Odds (Mar 30)

By ยท Updated 2 months ago
  • Road to the Kentucky Derby prep action is staged at Oaklawn Park on Saturday
  • Timberlake among the leading contenders for Grade 1 glory

Major action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is staged at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, as the Arkansas Derby is staged. This Grade 1 will be run over 1 1/8 miles, with a purse of $1.5 million up for grabs. A field of ten will go to post, and there are a number of leading contenders.


Schedule and How To Watch

  • When: Saturday, March 30, 2024 from 7:47 PM ET
  • Where: Oaklawn Park, Arkansas  
  • How To Watch: FanDuel TV

Arkansas Derby Odds

HorseOdds
Muth+185
Timberlake+200
Mystik Dan+350
Liberal Arts+1200
Just Steel+1600
Dimatic+1800
Time For Truth+2200
Informed Patriot+3300
Imperial Gun+4000
Will Take It+8000

Race Preview

A busy weekend of prep action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is set for Saturday, with one of the standout races coming in the form of the Arkansas Derby. This Grade 1 is staged over 1 1/8 miles, with a purse of $1.5 million up for grabs. It has been a key race throughout history in terms of producing winners of the Triple Crown races, with three previous victors landing victory in the Derby.

Muth appears to be a strong starting point when it comes to assessing the runners this weekend, but the Bob Baffert runner is ineligible in terms of Derby points. The three-year-old has won three from five starts, with victories coming in the G2 San Vicente and G1 American Pharoah. Holds form over Timberlake after finishing second in the G1 Breedersโ€™ Cup Juvenile.

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However, Timberlake re-appeared with a stunning effort on his comeback run for trainer Brad Cox, putting his Juvenile no-show behind him by landing the G2 Rebel Stakes. That was a stunning run by the three-year-old, and he appears to be clear on ratings if bringing his best form to the table, with his previous outing landing a speed rating of 105.

Mystik Dan will be well found in the betting in the Arkansas Derby, meaning that the Kenneth McPeek runner wonโ€™t be a big-price winner like he was earlier this year. The three-year-old was only fifth in the Smarty Jones Stakes, but he blew away the field on his previous outing to land the G3 Southwest Stakes. This requires further improvement.


Arkansas Derby Prediction

Iโ€™m a huge fan of Timberlake, and there was a lot to like about his comeback performance. For that reason, we see him reversing the form with Muth. Just Steel could be an interesting play in exotics after recovering from a number of issues to set a speed figure of 89 when seventh in the G2 Rebel.

Free Picks:

  • Win: Timberlake
  • Exacta Box: (2) Timberlake/ (7) Muth/ (8) Just Steel
Alex Dudley
Contributor Alex has covered huge sporting events for various websites and publications. He has attended football European Championships, Rugby League and Union World Cups, and the Paralympics. Alex is dedicated to giving the most insightful tips for VegasOdds readers and specialises in horse racing, soccer, golf and basketball.