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UFC 295 Preview: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Prediction, Odds, and Picks (Nov 11)

By · November 7, 2023
  • Sergei Pavlovich has had a full camp preparing to be the backup fighter for the Jones vs. Stipe fight.
  • Tom Aspinall agreed to fight at UFC 295 on a two-week notice after Jones got injured.
  • Sergei Pavlovich and Tom Aspinall are the two male fighters who land the most strikes in the UFC.

Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) vs. Tom Aspinall (13-3) is the co-main event of UFC 295. The two heavyweights are fighting for the interim title on Saturday, November 11, which wasn’t the original plan of Dana White and other UFC promoters.

Originally, Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic were supposed to fight for the UFC Heavyweight title but after Jones got injured, the UFC had to come up with a new plan.

Sergei Pavlovich was meant to be the backup fighter for the Jones vs. Stipe fight, but the UFC decided to scrap the title bout and instead go with an interim fight. Pavlovich got himself a new opponent – Tom Aspinall – who’s coming to Madison Square Garden on two weeks’ notice.


How to Watch

  • When: Saturday, November 11, 2023, at 10:00 p.m ET
  • Where: Madison Square Garden, New York City, New York
  • How to Watch: PPV

Odds

FighterOdds
Sergei Pavlovich+103
Tom Aspinall-123

Fight Preview

Our Pavlovich vs. Aspinall prediction is that the UFC 295 co-main event won’t last for the full 25 minutes. Instead, one of them will finish the other one.

There are several reasons why we think that, starting with the fact that these two heavyweights like finishing their fights early.

In his entire professional career which started back in 2014, Pavlovich has only three times heard the final bell. Sure, that’s impressive, but wait until you learn about Aspinall – none of his 16 pro fights went the distance.

Further, neither Pavlovich nor Aspinall has stayed in the UFC Octagon for more than two rounds. In his most recent fight, the Russian finished Curtis Blaydes by technical knockout after 3:08, while Aspinall’s last fight saw him beat Marcin Tybura by the same method after 73 seconds.

Speaking of KOs and TKO, those are the preferred finish methods of both Aspinall and Pavlovich. Actually, these guys are incredible strikers who land more significant strikes than any other male UFC fighter. Pavlovich is top of the list with 8.72, while Aspinall is second with 7.65.


Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tom Aspinall Prediction

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall is going to be a striking duel, which we’re almost certain is going to end within the first two rounds. But which heavyweight will KO the other one? We think it’s going to be Pavlovich.

READ ALSO: UFC 295 Preview: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira Prediction, Odds, and Picks (Nov 11)

First of all, he’s had a full camp, preparing for the role of the Jones vs. Stipe backup fighter. Secondly, he’s at least as good a striker as Aspinall, who also has a much longer reach than the Englishman. Pavlovich’s arms are six inches longer than those of Aspinall, so he should be able to prevent him from unleashing his full power.

Free Pick:

Annie Adkins
Contributor Annie is a seasoned veteran in sports betting and has been working in the industry for over 7 years. Her goal of educating others and sharing her knowledge on the topic has brought her to VegasOdds.com where she regularly contributes to our cornerstone guides and news to help readers improve their sports betting game. If you don’t find her writing, you can bet she’ll be studying sports stats!

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