How Weather Actually Affects Super Bowl Betting Odds
How Weather Actually Affects Super Bowl Betting Odds
Weather is often mentioned as a huge factor in Super Bowl betting, but historical data shows its impact is far lower than most bettors assume. Through Super Bowl LIX (2025), measurable weather effects have influenced totals and spreads, but only under specific conditions. As the NFL heads toward Super Bowl LX, understanding what the numbers actually say is critical.
Indoor vs Outdoor Super Bowls
Of the 59 Super Bowls through 2025, 31 have been played indoors, eliminating weather as a variable. In those games, totals have gone 16 Overs and 15 Unders, confirming that controlled environments do not create a consistent scoring pattern.
In outdoor Super Bowls, results are similarly balanced. Totals in outdoor games stand at 13 Overs, 13 Unders, and 1 push, showing that simply playing outside does not automatically favor lower scoring.
- Indoor total record: 16-15-1
- Outdoor total record: 13-13-1
Temperature Alone Does Not Suppress Scoring
Cold-weather Super Bowls are often assumed to favor the Under, but history does not support that belief. In Super Bowls played at temperatures below 50 degrees, Overs have hit 7 times, Unders 6 times, with 1 push. That near-even split suggests temperature alone has minimal value for betting. We aren’t saying it’s different for NFL regular-season games, but in Super Bowls, it’s not a big factor.
Even in extreme cold, scoring has not collapsed consistently. Several cold-weather Super Bowls exceeded their closing totals despite sub-freezing conditions.
- Total Record Below 50 Degrees: 7-6-1
Wind Is the Key Weather Variable
Wind is the weather factor that shows the strongest correlation with lower scoring. In Super Bowls where sustained winds reached 15 mph or higher, Unders have hit in four of six games. Those contests also featured lower yards per pass attempt and fewer deep passing plays.
However, these games represent a small sample size, which is why sportsbooks rarely overreact unless wind forecasts are both severe and consistent.
Though, all the bettors need to know that even in such situations, there are factors to include. For instance, are kickers playing for indoor or outdoor teams? Are teams relying more on field goals? What’s their red-zone percentage, etc.?
- Total Record With Wind Over 15mph: 2-4
Case Study: Super Bowl LIX (2025)
Super Bowl LIX was played outdoors with a closing total of 48.5. Despite public concern over conditions, the game finished comfortably Over. This outcome aligned with long-term data showing that modest weather concerns are usually priced correctly by sportsbooks and often overemphasized by bettors.
Bottom point, do you really think that the sportsbooks didn’t count in the weather in their odds and lines? Yes, they have, way before we even thought of that.
Weather and Point Spreads
The weather has shown little impact on the sides. Through Super Bowl LIX, favorites remain 37-22 straight up, and there is no meaningful deviation in spread results between indoor and outdoor games. Spread movement tied directly to weather has historically been limited to half-point or juice adjustments rather than major line shifts.
Favorites vs. Underdogs SU Super Bowl Record: 37-22
What the Data Actually Tells Bettors
Across nearly six decades of Super Bowl betting data, weather has mattered only when it directly affects execution, particularly through wind. Temperature narratives, snow speculation, and generalized “bad weather” concerns rarely create betting edges for bettors to use. And we repeat, RARELY.
The takeaway is simple.
Weather does affect Super Bowl betting odds, but only in narrow, measurable scenarios. Bettors who focus on wind data, market reaction, and closing line movement — rather than headlines — are far more likely to identify real value on the sport’s biggest stage.
