2024 NFL Draft: Top 10 Mock Draft, Odds, and Projection

By ยท Updated 4 weeks ago

The 2024 NFL Draft kicks off this week! It features a draft class fully loaded with talent at multiple positions. The Quarterback class headlines the show, with six QBs that have first-round potential. Let’s break down the first ten selections in this year’s draft.

Pick #1 – Chicago Bears

  • Projection: Caleb Williams QB – USC
  • Vegas Odds: -20000
  • Alternative Pick: Jayden Daniels (+7500)

The first overall pick appears likely to be Caleb Williams, who is the most complete Quarterback prospect in this year’s draft. He is considered to be as great a prospect as Trevor Lawrence was exiting college, and close to that of Andrew Luck. While the Bears could stun the world and select a signal caller with a better track record of winning in college, USC’s poor defense really shouldn’t affect Williams’ outlook. A trade is also pretty unlikely, barring a record-setting haul for Chicago.

Pick #2 – Washington Commanders

  • Projection: Jayden Daniels QB – LSU
  • Vegas Odds: -340
  • Alternative Pick: Drake Maye (+350)

Washington took a late-round flyer on Sam Howell in 2022, but didn’t get a high enough level of play from him to be competitive. While it is too early to hang the curtain on his NFL career, the Commanders are unlikely to pass up the opportunity to select a Quarterback with a higher ceiling here. I don’t see Washington dipping back into the UNC pool of QBs so soon, especially with the two-way ability Jayden Daniels provides. He can make the Commanders immediately more competitive.

Pick #3 – New England Patriots

  • Projection: Drake Maye QB – North Carolina
  • Vegas Odds: -180
  • Alternative Pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. (+3000)

With Williams and Daniels off the board, the Patriots have a tough decision to make. They desperately need a QB to take over for a flailing Mac Jones, but may be hesitant to select one here. After originally ranking as the clear #2 behind Williams, Drake Maye has slid down the board closer to where J.J. McCarthy is. New England may look to trade down with both available, or could opt to select the best overall player in Marvin Harrison Jr. Ultimately, I see them betting on Maye’s immense upside as a prospect.

Pick #4 – Arizona Cardinals

  • Projection: Marvin Harrison Jr. WR – Ohio State
  • Vegas Odds: -240
  • Alternative Pick: trade w/ MIN for J.J. McCarthy (+420)

Arizona’s selection at #4 is one of the most frequently projected picks to be traded. With the QB-needy Giants lurking at #6, a team like the Vikings has often been speculated to trade up into the top-5. That being said, I’m not sold it’ll happen. The Cardinals are staring their next Larry Fitzgerald in the face if Harrison Jr. is still on the board. They would need to receive a monumental offer to pass that up. It could come their way, but it’s more likely they lock down a superstar WR for Kyler Murray.

Pick #5 – Los Angeles Chargers

  • Projection: Joe Alt OL – Notre Dame
  • Vegas Odds: +400
  • Alternative Pick: Malik Nabers (+230)

This is where things really start to get interesting. This pick is another frequently speculated to be traded, and has many different outcomes even if Los Angeles keeps it. While offensive weapons like Malik Nabers and Brock Bowers have often been linked to the Chargers, there is another likelihood growing even larger. New head coach Jim Harbaugh is known to begin with establishing a strong offensive line. I see him salivating at the proposition of a line anchored by Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.

Pick #6 – New York Giants

  • Projection: Malik Nabers – WR
  • Vegas Odds: +170
  • Alternative Pick: J.J. McCarthy (+550)

The Giants will have a multitude of options when the #6 pick is on the clock. While they’ve frequently been linked to Quarterbacks after a disasterous season by the freshly-extended Daniel Jones, I see that as only a small possibility. Jones’ contract makes it more likely that they’re forced to commit to him for at least one more season. Meanwhile, a rookie QB would just be set up to fail in their offense. Instead, New York opts to provide Jones with a game-breaking weapon in Malik Nabers, should they not trade down.

Pick #7 – Tennessee Titans (traded to MIN)

  • Projection: J.J. McCarthy QB – Michigan
  • Vegas Odds: +2000
  • Alternative Pick: Olu Fashanu (+1000)

After failing to convince the Cardinals and Chargers to trade with them, the Vikings are relieved to see they didn’t need to jump the Giants after all. But with the Falcons and Jets still ahead of them, Minnesota makes a deal with the Titans to trade up and select Kirk Cousins’ replacement in J.J. McCarthy. Tennessee could opt to keep this pick, but with Alt and Nabers off the board, they’re more likely to trade down. At #11 they may still have the choice between Olu Fashanu and Taliese Fuaga to protect Will Levis.

Pick #8 – Atlanta Falcons

  • Projection: Dallas Turner DL – Alabama
  • Vegas Odds: +250
  • Alternative Pick: Laiatu Latu (+250)

The Falcons may wind up in a scenario where J.J. McCarthy is still available to them at #8. If that happens, they’ll need to think long and hard about Desmond Ridder’s future at QB. On the other hand, it’s equally likely that the top four QBs are off the board, forcing Atlanta to pivot. Their defense has improved over the past couple of seasons, but still lacks a consistent pash rush. With not a single defender off the board at this point, the Falcons have the ability to select anyone they choose, and opt for Dallas Turner.

Pick #9 – Chicago Bears

  • Projection: Rome Odunze WR – Washington
  • Vegas Odds: +150
  • Alternative Pick: Brock Bowers (+1600)

After securing the future of their franchise with the #1 overall pick they received from Carolina, Chicago has their own selection at #9. Taking Williams allows the Bears to trade Justin Fields, which could be used to address a need that they don’t fix on draft night. One of the main priorities will be providing weapons for Caleb Williams. With Keenan Allen already in tow after being traded for in March, Chicago has an opportunity to pair him with another potentially game-breaking receiver in Rome Odunze.

Pick #10 – New York Jets

  • Projection: Brock Bowers TE – Georgia
  • Vegas Odds: +145
  • Alternative Pick: Quinyon Mitchell (+3000)

The Jets round out this year’s top-10 picks, hoping to support an ineffective offense. While many believe the return of Aaron Rodgers will fix their problems, the Jets have many other issues to address. Rodgers is also very unlikely to give them MVP-level play as he approaches 40 years old. They do have a good defense already, so the Jets can begin to remedy their troubles by building up the offense before the next franchise QB comes in. Brock Bowers can block, catch, run, and do it all. He’s just what they need.

Keith McCarthy
Contributor Keith McCarthy is an experienced sports analyst with a passion for predicting the outcomes of games spanning across sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, with a special expertise in college sports.