NFL Picks This Week: Our Week 8 Best Bets and Lock of the Week
Lock of the week: Patriots -7 (-110)
Best bet: Steelers moneyline (-190)
Value pick: Vikings moneyline (+157)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineThese are our NFL picks this week: the three bets we’re most confident in from the entire slate, including our lock of the week. Every pick comes with the latest odds and our reasoning, and you’ll also find what all three pay together as a parlay.
There’s no such thing as a sure bet in the NFL, but these are the spots where we think the numbers are on our side. This page is updated every week once the lines are posted, and we track every pick, so you can see exactly how we’ve done.
Our Best NFL Bets for Week 8
Week 8 brings 14 games, and these are my three strongest picks from the slate, led by the Patriots as the lock of the week.
Lock of the Week: Patriots -7 at Dolphins
The Patriots have avoided a major hangover after losing the Super Bowl, but the bigger question is where they really rank this season, especially with injuries taken into account.
Our view is that New England is good enough to hang around with the league’s elite teams, but doesn’t quite have the firepower or belief to close out tight games against them. Against weaker teams, it’s a different story. Drake Maye is playing at an elite level both on the ground and through the air, the defense can dominate lesser opponents, and the Patriots have already blown out the Raiders and Steelers this season. We don’t see Miami, with just one win all year, putting up much more of a fight.
The 4:25 PM ET kickoff also takes some of the sting out of the Miami heat, which usually gives the Dolphins an edge in home games. And with A.J. Brown still waiting for his breakout game as a Patriot, this looks like the perfect spot for it.
At -7, New England needs to win by more than a touchdown, and a seven-point win would be a push. We see this as a comfortable Patriots win, with more than enough margin to cover.
Best Bet: Steelers Moneyline vs Browns
Party at Deshaun’s? We don’t think so, especially when you dig a little deeper into Cleveland’s 2-2 road record this season. Narrow wins over a struggling Buccaneers team and the 1-6 Titans don’t inspire much confidence, and neither does a road loss to the Jets.
With the total set at just 39.5, the market expects a defensive slugfest, and that’s where we trust Aaron Rodgers’ experience to do just enough. He isn’t putting up huge numbers this season, but a 13-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio is solid. On the other side, Deshaun Watson has made 12 turnover-worthy plays in seven games, despite throwing just three interceptions. Against a strong Steelers defense, in a game where turnovers will be crucial, we expect that luck to run out.
Pittsburgh is also 3-0 at home this season, scoring 30 or more points in two of those wins. At -190 on BetOnline, we like the Steelers to make it four straight at Acrisure Stadium.
Value Pick of the Week: Vikings Moneyline at Lions
Detroit has the third-most prolific passing offense in the league and is 3-0 at home this season, so does it make sense to pick against the Lions? It sure does when the 6-0 Vikings come to Ford Field with Brian Flores running their defense.
If anyone is equipped to slow down Jared Goff and this offense, it’s Minnesota. The Vikings are holding opponents to just 12.3 points per game, are tied for the league lead in sacks, have forced 11 turnovers, and are still unbeaten. Flores also has Goff’s number: Goff is 4-5 against Flores defenses, with 11 touchdowns to 14 turnovers, and his teams average just under 21 points per game in those matchups.
That said, the Vikings aren’t nearly as effective on the other side of the ball. Just 10 touchdowns in six games is an astonishingly low total for an unbeaten team, and they rank only 23rd in points scored. We expect a low-scoring game, but one where Minnesota’s defense does enough to come out on top.
At +157 on BetOnline, an unbeaten team with the league’s best defense is getting a generous price, and that’s exactly the kind of value we’re looking for.
Our NFL Parlay Picks This Week: What Our Best Bets Pay Together
Our best NFL parlay this week combines our lock of the week and best bet: Patriots -7 and the Steelers moneyline. That two-leg parlay pays around +191 on BetOnline, so $100 returns $291. Add the Vikings as our value pick, and the three-leg parlay jumps to around +649, returning $749 on a $100 bet.
| Parlay | Legs | Odds | $100 returns |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lock + Best Bet | Patriots -7, Steelers ML | +191 | $291 |
| All three | Patriots -7, Steelers ML, Vikings ML | +649 | $749 |
Parlay prices can shift slightly as the lines move, so check the payout on your bet slip before confirming.
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