Super Bowl Betting Trends That Still Matter in 2026
Every year, bettors look to Super Bowl betting trends to gain insight into the biggest sports event in the United States. While many popular theories no longer hold up in modern markets, historical data still reveals patterns that just might count when applied correctly.
As Super Bowl LX approaches, separating myth from measurable performance is essential for bettors focused on value rather than hype.
Super Bowls Are Usually Very Close
One of the most important data points for bettors is the level of competitiveness in Super Bowl matches. Over the last 21 Super Bowls, 12 games have been decided by one score. That level of consistency shows how efficiently sportsbooks price championship matchups. Blowouts remain the exception, not the expectation, which reduces the usefulness of margin-based predictions and increases the importance of small line movement, half-points, and timing.
Note:
- 12 of the last 21 Super Bowl games have ended within one possession.
Against-the-Spread Data Favors Underdogs
Straight-up results still favor favorites, but the spread tells a different story. Through Super Bowl LIX in 2025, favorites are 37–22 straight up. Against the spread, however, favorites are just 25–31–3 ATS. That means underdogs have covered more often than favorites across Super Bowl history.
The trend becomes stronger in the modern era. Over the last 24 Super Bowls, underdogs are 18–6 ATS. Narrowing the window further, underdogs have gone 14–4 ATS over the last 18 Super Bowls. This does not suggest blindly betting underdogs, but it does highlight how public money can inflate favorites, especially when elite quarterbacks or popular franchises are involved.
Note:
Underdogs are 14-4 ATS in the previous 18 Super Bowl events, and are 5-0 in the last five.
One Trend With Exceptional Consistency
One of the strongest historical Super Bowl indicators is tied to game winners. Including Super Bowl LIX, the outright winner has covered the spread in 49 of 59 Super Bowls, with only 7 losses and 3 pushes. In practical terms, when bettors correctly identify the better team, the point spread has rarely prevented a winning bet. This reinforces the importance of conviction-based wagering rather than splitting exposure unnecessarily.
Note:
The winner covered the spread in 49 of 59 Super Bowls.
Totals Betting Shows Near-Perfect Balance
Unlike point spreads, totals betting offers little long-term bias. Through Super Bowl LIX, Overs have hit 29 times, Unders 28 times, with one push (Super Bowl I didn’t have totals included). That near-even split confirms that sportsbooks price totals efficiently.
Still, most recent Super Bowl clashes have seen Under in most cases, that is, in 5 of the past 7. Last year’s 40-22 game, in which the Eagles beat the Chiefs, has softened that trend, but we still have to mention it.
Note:
- 5 of the last 7 Super Bowls went Under
What These Trends Mean for Bettors
The Super Bowl trends that still matter in 2026 are based on data, not superstition or wild guesses. Against-the-spread inflation, underdog value created by public bias, the high correlation between winning and covering, and the efficiency of totals markets all provide context for smarter betting decisions.
The Super Bowl does not reward narrative-driven wagering. It rewards bettors who understand how numbers move, why markets overcorrect, and where historical data still exposes value on the sport’s biggest stage.
