What Does ‘Odds-on Favorite’ Mean in Sports Betting?
In sports betting, an “Odds-on Favorite” is a team or player that has a higher than 50% implied probability of winning and will pay out less money than you risked.
It is a more specific and heavier version of a regular “favorite.”
How to Spot an Odds-on Favorite
In the US, you can spot an odds-on favorite by looking for any odds that start with a minus sign (-), where the number is larger than -100 (or really, larger than -110 after the house fee is factored in).
- Example:
- Cowboys -170
- Giants +140
The Cowboys are the odds-on favorite here.
The Payout Rule
The key rule for an odds-on favorite is that you must risk more money than you stand to win in profit.
| Odds | What It Means | Payout on a $100 Bet |
| -170 | You must bet $170 to win $100 profit. | $58.82 profit |
| -200 | You must bet $200 to win $100 profit. | $50.00 profit |
| +140 | You risk $100 to win $140 profit. | $140.00 profit |
When you bet on an odds-on favorite, you are saying: “I believe this team is very likely to win, and I’m willing to risk more money for that higher certainty.”
Origin of the Term
The term “odds-on” literally means “odds are on your side.” It originated in the UK, where it described any selection whose fractional odds were less than Evens (1/1).
- Evens (1/1) = 50% probability
- Odds-On (like 1/2) = 66.7% probability
In the American odds format, anything with a minus sign is technically an “odds-on favorite.”