Oscar Odds and Predictions: Best Picture and Best Actor Favorites for the 2027 Oscars

The 2027 Oscars are on Sunday, March 14, and the betting market already has a clear view of how the night could go. Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey is a heavy Best Picture favorite. The Best Actor race, meanwhile, is one of the most open in years, with three serious contenders all priced at +325 or shorter.

The Oscar odds below come from BetOnline, and we update them as awards season unfolds. Expect plenty of movement: nominations are announced on January 21, and the Golden Globes, guild awards, and BAFTAs all shift prices along the way.

Odds last updated: November 9, 2026

Best Picture Odds

Film	Odds	Chance
The Odyssey	-180	64%
The Black Ball	+350	22%
You Can See Everything	+400	20%
Dune: Part Three	+1000	9%
Wild Horse Nine	+1800	5%
Artificial	+3300	3%

The Odyssey has been the film to beat since its July release, and at -180 the market gives it close to a two-in-three chance. Nolan finally won Best Picture and Best Director with Oppenheimer, so the old idea that the Academy doesn’t reward his blockbusters no longer holds. A big, ambitious, commercially successful film from a director voters have already embraced is a strong profile for this category.

The Black Ball, the Spanish-language La Bola Negra, is the nearest challenger at +350, with You Can See Everything just behind at +400. Both are priced as real threats rather than outsiders, and either one could shorten quickly if it starts picking up precursor wins. Dune: Part Three at +1000 is the wildcard. It’s the only major contender that hasn’t been released yet, so its price could move sharply in either direction once it arrives in December.

The “Chance” column is the implied probability of each price. It adds up to more than 100% because the sportsbook builds its margin into the odds.

Best Actor Odds

Actor	Film	Odds
John Malkovich	Wild Horse Nine	+115
Andrew Scott	Elsinore	+250
Matt Damon	The Odyssey	+325
Ippolito	I Play Rocky	+900
Tom Cruise	Digger	+1100
Timothée Chalamet	Dune: Part Three	+1800
Ryan Gosling	Project Hail Mary	+2500
Robert Pattinson	Primetime	+3300
John Turturro	Only Living Pickpocket	+6600

John Malkovich is a surprise favorite at +115. His turn as a CIA officer in Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine has drawn some of the best reviews of his career, and an overdue veteran who has never won is a story Oscar voters have always loved. At that price, the market rates him a little under a 50% chance.

Andrew Scott at +250 is the critics’ name to watch. His performance as Ian Charleson in Elsinore has been building buzz since the film premiered, and he’s widely seen as Malkovich’s biggest threat. Matt Damon at +325 is the interesting one from a betting point of view. He leads the Best Picture favorite as Odysseus, and a film that strong usually lifts its lead actor too.

Oscar Predictions: What the Odds Are Telling Us

The betting market is the best guide to who’s likely to win on Oscar night, because it reacts to every review, box office number and precursor result as it happens. Here’s how we read it right now.

The Odyssey Is Favorite for a Reason

Heavy favorites don’t always hold up in Best Picture, because the Academy uses a preferential ballot that rewards the film most voters like rather than the one with the most passionate fans. Even so, The Odyssey has everything that usually wins: scale, box office, strong reviews and a director the Academy has already crowned. A -180 price leaves little room for value, but it’s a fair reflection of where the race stands.

Best Actor Is a Genuine Three-Way Race

When the favorite is priced at plus money, the market is telling you nothing is settled. Malkovich, Scott and Damon each have a clear route to the win. Because the category is this open, the precursor awards will do most of the deciding. The first actor to pick up a major win in January could see their price collapse.

The Long Shots Worth Keeping an Eye On

Dune: Part Three is the one to watch in Best Picture. A strong December release could change the shape of the race overnight, as it did for plenty of late-year films before it. In Best Actor, Tom Cruise at +1100 is worth tracking. A first Oscar for one of the biggest movie stars in the world is exactly the kind of story that builds momentum through awards season, and Digger puts him in the hands of Alejandro González Iñárritu, a director who has guided actors to Oscars before.

John Turturro at +6600 is another name worth watching. He has never been nominated for an Oscar, and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York has many critics saying this could finally be his year.

When Are the Oscars? Key 2027 Dates

Date	Event
Jan 11 to 15	Nominations voting
Thu, Jan 21	Nominations announced
Feb 25 to Mar 4	Final voting
Sun, Mar 14	99th Oscars, 7 PM ET on ABC

The 99th Academy Awards take place at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, March 14, 2027, live on ABC from 7 PM ET. The 2027 Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday, January 21, and that’s usually the biggest single day for movement in the Oscar odds, because any contender who misses out is gone from the market.

How Awards Season Moves the Oscar Odds

Golden Globes

The Globes in early January are the first major televised awards of the season. They split their film categories into drama and comedy or musical, so they aren’t a perfect guide, but a win puts a contender’s name in front of Academy voters just as nominations voting opens.

The Guild Awards

These are the ones the sharpest Oscar bettors watch most closely, because guild members overlap heavily with Academy voters. The Producers Guild (PGA) uses the same preferential ballot as Best Picture. The Directors Guild (DGA) and the Actor Awards (formerly SAG) are long-running indicators for Best Director and the acting categories.

BAFTAs

The British awards land a few weeks before the Oscars and have a large overlap of voters. A BAFTA win late in the season can confirm a favorite or give a challenger the push it needs.

Last Year’s Oscar Winners

Category	Winner
Best Picture	One Battle After Another
Best Director	Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor	Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Best Actress	Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Supporting Actor	Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Supporting Actress	Amy Madigan, Weapons

How to Bet on the Oscars

Where to Bet on the Oscars

BetOnline is our top pick for Oscar betting. It already has Best Picture and Best Actor markets up months before nominations, and it adds the other major categories as awards season goes on. Entertainment markets are where BetOnline really stands out, covering everything from the Academy Awards to Time Person of the Year, with prices that move quickly as news breaks.

How Oscar Odds Work

Oscar odds are moneyline prices. A plus number shows your profit on a $100 bet, so a $100 bet on John Malkovich at +115 returns $115 profit if he wins. A minus number shows how much you need to bet to win $100, so The Odyssey at -180 needs a $180 bet to make $100 profit. Bets are settled on the night, as soon as each winner is announced.

Oscar Betting Tips

Prices are at their most generous before nominations, but you’re taking on the risk that your pick doesn’t get nominated. Once the nominees are known, the precursor awards are the best guide there is, so it pays to follow the Globes, the guilds and the BAFTAs closely. Bet before a big precursor result if you think it’s coming your way, because the value is usually gone the moment the winner is announced.