Kentucky Derby 2026: 3 Long Shots to Consider
There are few more profitable sporting events on the U.S. calendar than the Kentucky Derby. The unpredictable nature of the opening leg of the Triple Crown has made it synonymous with upsets.
This trend has continued throughout the modern era, with Rich Strike being the second-biggest priced winner in Derby history at odds of +8000 in 2022. Given the small sample size of horses involved at Churchill Downs on track, it is always common for runners to go under the radar.
But, who are some of the Kentucky Derby long shots worth considering in 2026?
Pavlovian
- Trainer: Doug O’Neill
- Jockey: Edwin Maldonado
- Current Kentucky Derby Odds: +4000
Bettors will typically be looking for trainers with a proven record in Triple Crown races, meaning that Doug O’Neill’s Pavlovian shouldn’t be underestimated on the first Saturday in May.
O’Neill has twice trained winners of the Derby, and his big-race record continues to be eye-catching after winning the Godolphin Mile last year. A change in race style has led to a reversal in fortunes, winning the Sunland Derby before achieving a career-best 96 Equibase rating when second in the G2 Louisiana Derby, beaten just a head by the talented Emerging Market.
The fact that he will be on the pace is likely a negative for his win purposes, but his gritty nature ensures that he will be hard to overtake. Could be among the Kentucky Derby long shots for Exotics.
Bet Pavlovian to Win the Kentucky Derby at +4000
Wonder Dean
- Trainer: Daisuke Takayanagi
- Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
- Current Kentucky Derby Odds: +4000
Japan’s emergence as a leading player on the racing scene has been apparent in recent memory, but the Kentucky Derby remains a race that evades them. Forever Young came closest to success when third in 2024, while T O Password and Derma Sotogake have both put up impressive showings.
This year, Wonder Dean could be the overlooked contender at the prices. Sakai will be aboard, and is a major plus, having had experience in the Derby with Forever Young two years ago. By Dee Majesty, the three-year-old showed great stamina to earn his spot in the Derby, chasing down Six Speed to win the G2 UAE Derby by two lengths.
Seems better suited to longer distances, meaning his fourth in the G3 Saudi Derby is easy to overlook. Wonder Dean will still need to step up on the form previously shown, but the long straight at Churchill Downs will suit his chances based on his run in Meydan last month.
Bet Wonder Dean to Win the Kentucky Derby at +4000
Golden Tempo
- Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
- Jockey: Jose Ortiz
- Current Kentucky Derby Odds: +3600
I’m a massive fan of Cherie DeVaux, and she is a trainer who is beginning to make her mark in the USA’s biggest races. She is a six-time winner of Grade 1 races, and has started this season in excellent form.
Golden Tempo boasts the progressive profile required for the Derby, winning the G3 Lecomte Stakes, before finishing third in both the G2 Risen Star and G2 Louisiana Derby (finishing a length behind Emerging Market) when the style of the race didn’t suit. He will sit off the pace and make his move late, meaning that he will require a fast pace and trip-free round to challenge, but he is bred for the Derby distance.
The Kentucky Derby long shot is by Curlin, who has produced notable Grade One winners over longer trips, including Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso, Travers Stakes victor Keen Ice, and last season’s Derby runner-up Journalism. Jose Ortiz has kept the faith with Golden Tempo, as he bids to win a third Triple Crown race.
Bet Golden Tempo to Win the Kentucky Derby at +3600
For more information about all runners involved in this year’s race, find out more in our Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet.
