Kentucky Derby Prediction, Preview, and Odds (May 4)

By ยท Updated 2 months ago
  • 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby will be staged on Saturday, May 4
  • Three-year-old runners will compete in the opening leg of the Triple Crown

The wait for the first Triple Crown race of 2024 comes to an end on Saturday, May 4, as the Kentucky Derby takes place at Churchill Downs. It will be a historic edition of the legendary race, with the contest celebrating its 150th anniversary. But, which runner could join the likes of Secretariat and American Pharoah in the history books?

How To Watch

  • When: Saturday, May 4, 2024
  • Where: Churchill Downs, Kentucky
  • How To Watch: NBC


Sierra Leone+300
Forever Young+1000
Catching Freedom+1200
Just A Touch+1600

Match Preview

History will be made at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 4, as the 150th edition of the Kentucky Derby is staged. The historic opening leg of the Triple Crown has been held annually since 1875, with the field of runners aged three competing over a distance of 1 ยผ miles on the dirt. Legendary horses such as Secretariat, American Pharoah, and Affirmed are among the names on the roll of honor.

This yearโ€™s race is one of the most open editions of the race that we have seen in recent memory, and it could be argued that the Derby lacks a real standout superstar. Beyer Speed Figures are the biggest indicator when it comes to finding a standout contender, with 28 of the last 32 winners posting a rating of 95 or higher. Meanwhile, eleven of the last 14 victors have posted a rating of 100+.

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Based on the latter of those trends, only two horses fit the bill, with only Fierceness and Mystik Dan posting ratings of 100+. The former looks to be a standout contender this year after building on his G1 Breedersโ€™ Cup Juvenile success with a romp by over ten lengths in the G1 Florida Derby earlier this month. But, Mystik Dan will have questions to answer after a sub-par run when third in the G1 Arkansas Derby.

Forever Young could be the big exception this year, as the Japanese raider hasnโ€™t posted a Beyer rating after earning his spot with two superb victories in the Middle East. The latest of those was secured in a big field when storming home to score in the G2 UAE Derby. That run makes him a standout contender this year, and he is hard to ignore.

Sierra Leone is the runner for Chad Brown this weekend, and he boasts solid form lines coming into the contest. He was the winner of the G2 Risen Star in February, before storming clear in the G1 Blue Grass on his previous outing. However, this extra distance at Churchill Downs may be a question mark.

Kentucky Derby Prediction

Fierceness and Forever Young are our two leading contenders for the Derby this year. Meanwhile, Dornoch and Mystik Dan could be excellent Exacta plays. A chance is also taken on Honor Marie, for jockey Ben Curtis, who was an excellent second in the Louisiana Derby and already boasts solid Churchill Downs form after beating Real Men Violin last year.

Free Pick:

  • Fierceness
  • Forever Young
  • Trifecta Box: Forever Young/ Fierceness, Honor Marie, Mystik Dan, Dornoch
Alex Dudley
Contributor Alex has covered huge sporting events for various websites and publications. He has attended football European Championships, Rugby League and Union World Cups, and the Paralympics. Alex is dedicated to giving the most insightful tips for VegasOdds readers and specialises in horse racing, soccer, golf and basketball.