NFL Week 10 Upset Predictions: Chargers’ 1st Win, Dolphins Winning in Indianapolis

As the 2026 NFL season pushes through its midseason grind, Week 10 brings a few interesting underdog picks. Conference rivalries, weather conditions, and bye-week rest advantages are creating prime spots to chase upsets.

If you are hunting for value on the moneyline or looking to grab some ATS bets, here are three thoroughly researched NFL Week 10 upset predictions based on the latest betting intel and matchup dynamics.

Check out the latest NFL Week 10 odds here.

NFL Week 10 Best Underdog Picks

Dolphins +170 vs. Colts

We’re so sorry we didn’t publish this article sooner and catch the higher moneyline on the Fins. Why did we bet on Miami in this case?

Colts have the 3rd-worst scoring defense in the NFL, allowing 27.7 points per game. But that’s not the only reason. The situation inside the organization is problematic, and a few players were expected to be traded, yet they stayed in Indy. The season is lost for this unit, so players don’t have any motivation, especially those who were in trade talks and planned to go to a team that chases the playoffs (like Jonathan Taylor).

The Dolphins lose games, but play much better. Their run defense is one of the best in the NFL, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry, so they have what it takes to neutralize Taylor. Besides that, their run game is solid, and they face the Colts’ defense, which allows 137 ypg, the 3rd-worst overall. So there’s a case for a Miami Dolphins upset.

Texans vs. Browns +195

Browns are undefeated at Dawg Pound this year. Just a few noticed that. Deshaun Watson’s game-winning drives are responsible for that, but so are a very strong defense that steps up when it matters most, plus special teams.

Now CJ Stroud improved his game a lot after a poor start, and the Texans now have the 3rd-best passing game in the NFL. However, we are pretty sure they haven’t faced a defense like the Browns. Also, there is a weather factor here, because Lake Erie can bring cold winds that not only stiffen the fingers but also manipulate the ball in the air. Meanwhile, Texans average just 87.1 rushing yards per game, meaning they are a bit one-dimensional.

If things don’t go according to their original idea, there’s no backup plan. In this case, Cleveland’s win probability rises, and the Browns have a nice chance to defend their ground. So if you are not going to go for a moneyline upset, at least take the against-the-spread pick here. All NFL Week 10 ATS picks are listed here.

Chargers +180 vs. Ravens

We think it’s time for the Chargers’ first win of the year. It’s prime time, Monday Night Football, with Jim Harbaugh’s side going to Baltimore without any pressure at all. As said, this team is without a win, but there’s one thing that many didn’t notice, which is the Chargers’ schedule strength, arguably the hardest in the last decade.

Meanwhile, the home team has four straight losses, allowing 104 points combined in its last three games: 35, 36, and 33, respectively. Lamar and his backups are out, so the team traded for Jacoby Brissett, hoping to fill the gap at quarterback. Ravens’ offense delivered 43 points across the previous 4 rounds.

Furthermore, Baltimore has massive injury problems on both sides of the ball. Most of their secondary is in the infirmary, which opens up space for Herbert to finally find his rhythm.

Even though the Chargers have injury problems, too, we think they are the perfect fit for an upset.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the best NFL Week 10 upset picks?

The best NFL Week 10 upset picks are underdogs with favorable matchups, strong recent performances, and the potential to exploit weaknesses in opposing teams. Look beyond win-loss records when evaluating potential surprises.

How do you identify NFL Week 10 underdog picks?

We analyze team form, quarterback performance, injuries, defensive matchups, home-field advantage, and betting odds to identify underdogs with realistic chances of winning.

What is an NFL upset in betting?

An NFL upset occurs when an underdog defeats a team favored to win. Upset betting typically involves backing the underdog on the moneyline, offering potentially higher payouts than betting on the favorite.

Are NFL Week 10 moneyline underdogs worth betting on?

They can offer value when the underdog’s actual chances of winning are better than the probability implied by the betting odds. However, higher payouts also come with greater risk.

What should I consider before betting on NFL Week 10 upsets?

Check the latest injury reports, starting quarterback availability, recent team performances, matchup history, and moneyline prices before making your picks.