Expert prediction
UFC Vegas 123 Predictions: Moicano vs Nolan Picks, Odds and Best Bet
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Best bet: Tom Nolan moneyline (-120)
Bet UFC Vegas 123 at BetOnlineRenato Moicano and Tom Nolan headline UFC Vegas 123 this Saturday in a lightweight matchup with plenty on the line. Moicano is fighting to stay relevant in the division, while Nolan is chasing a breakthrough win and a place in the rankings.
You can see more of our UFC picks, but here’s why I’m backing Nolan in the main event, and how you can bet on Moicano vs Nolan.
Saturday, Oct 31 · 10:00 PM ET · UFC Apex, Las Vegas · Paramount+
Moicano vs Nolan Odds (BetOnline)
Fight Preview
Renato Moicano (21-7-1)
The 37-year-old veteran has bounced back after back-to-back losses in 2025. After falling to Islam Makhachev in a title fight, he lost to Beneil Dariush, but rebounded this April with a face crank submission win over Chris Duncan to earn another headline spot.
“Money” is one of the best grapplers in the division, with 11 of his 21 wins coming by submission. He showed he still has plenty in the tank against Dariush, despite the loss, but Father Time is catching up, and at times he looks a step slower than he used to.
Tom Nolan (11-1)
“Big Train” is one of the most exciting young lightweights in the UFC. The 26-year-old Australian is 11-1 and riding a five-fight winning streak, and a win here would likely put him in the top 10 and earn him another headline slot.
At 6-foot-2, Nolan is huge for a lightweight, and he has the knockout power to match. His fight against Bogdan Grad on Dana White’s Contender Series is still one of the wildest the show has produced in recent years.
Moicano vs Nolan Predictions
Moicano’s best chance is to survive the early storm and drag Nolan into the championship rounds, where his experience and grappling could take over. But Nolan looks like a fighter still improving with every outing, and his size is a major problem for Moicano. It will be hard for the Brazilian to get him down, and even harder to keep him there.
Add Nolan’s youth, power, and slight reach advantage, and he’s the right side at -120, a fair price for a rising fighter against a veteran past his peak.
- Best bet: Tom Nolan moneyline (-120)
How to Bet on UFC Vegas 123
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